T. August
-
Posts
4,369 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by T. August
-
Gefs pretty much the same as 12z. 2-4” mean. We need the euro to save the day lol.
-
I could be wrong but I feel like that 10:1 is generous lol
-
lol it’s a fail scenario for most people.
-
Idk man a 3-5” mean is decent. Unfortunately the gfs op is still one of the snowiest out there, even including individual ens members.
-
Didn’t see anyone mention, but the 12z geps isn’t bad at all. A few tenths fall after this in northern areas.
-
Yeah can’t deny the shift south but looking at the individual members, they look great. I still think 8-10” is the ceiling.
-
I hear you but the eps was a little too amped for a lot of people at 6z.
-
Yeah definitely decent. It’s a little more south/dry but it’s hard to complain when the mean is 5” for most in the forum.
-
It does not lol. South of 6z
-
I believe the 12z ICON is showing what @Heisy and @psuhoffman were concerned about. The first wave is kind of warm and south, then the left over stuff gets amped up into central PA. I only have 10:1 maps - it looks like 2-4” but temps are iffy from the start.
-
That mean is sick. Gefs was an improvement too
-
Euro is legit identical to 18z, I had to double check to make sure it was 0z. 6-8” for most
-
Cliff jumping is silly but to see 0z so far as negative isn’t unjustified. Gfs is a miss south. CMC had good orientation but was absolutely torching. Whenever multiple ways of failing show up I definitely get nervous.
-
Ralph and Mitch have their PA goggles on. Canadian is no bueno.
-
Lmfao it’s even worse than I imagined
-
If the euro is bad I think we need a new thread.
-
Yes - 18z looked like it would turn out decent so hopefully this follows its lead.
-
Regarding the event next week - it’s no surprise, but the OP GFS is the snowiest outcome among its own ensemble as well as that of the Euro ens and CMC ens. Only one random member comes close to it (for the cities at least). Verbatim, the general ceiling is 10-12” which would be sweet.
-
Eps run was crazy…. 10-12” mean through 360. Next week’s event was a tiny step back - the center of snowfall shifted north of the M/D line. Still not bad with 4-5” on the 24 hour mean.
-
It is. 4-6” would be fine by me. I just want it to be decently heavy at times. Peak snowfall rate imby this year was .8”/hr lol.
-
Like @stormtracker said, it gets kind of warm. Precip isn’t bad
-
Kuchera is 4-6”. Pretty similar to 6z.
-
CMC ens look good. 24 hour mean is 3-4” for the area, looks a lot like the gefs. Definitely more modest than the output from a few days ago but I’m just glad to not see it go north.
-
Gefs is good for some breathing room. It removed a lot of the bad misses to the north.
-
Kuchera is 18” for a lot of people
