A question for someone smarter than me -
Is there any credibility with the “step in the right direction” in regards to models? It seems like there is a point when it’s wrong/right, and a trend is something just perceived by us, the viewers.
Is a “trend” more of a result of the model’s resolution? As we draw nearer in time, does that margin of error grow smaller, and we can see what appears to be a model “catching on”?
I guess my point is, why sometimes does it seem like there is a slow march to the proper depiction rather than a concrete shift displayed across all guidance?