27596WXNUT

85 special. Anything below 85 will be looking at rain and maybe token flakes.

Let’s face it. After a long wait the triangle finally gets to see a few inches. Close to 4” here just east of Youngsville. After waiting all day I’ll take it.

I was encouraged my Fish’s post. He’s been around this area for years. Longer than pretty much any other met. And now he can shoot straight since the WRAL chains are off. I think we could pick a few inches really quick this evening and tonight but we will see.

From the Fish for you guys in the triangle. Greg Fishel post: Winter Storm Update 3:30pm Sat Jan 31 Sponsored by Blanton’s Air, Plumbing & Electric The following is an example of what you will get if you subscribe to my Patreon channel. It's much more in depth and I create videos, complete with graphics and statistics Monday through Friday, and over the weekend if conditions warrant. To check it out, go to https://patreon.com/fishweather. Now, here is what I just posted on my Patreon channel: I am not shocked about the lack of snow so far in the Triangle. I believe I stated several times that to me, the most favorable time for heavy hitting was late Saturday afternoon into the wee hours of Sunday morning. Now, if it looks like this at 9pm tonight, I'll be genuinely concerned! As the storm offshore begins to rapidly intensify, the flow surrounding it will strengthen as well, and we will get into what we call a pattern of strong warm advection. Now snow lovers, don't fret. in this case "warm" is a relative term! But the process of warm advection is a contributor to upward motion and I expect that to maximize here in the coming hours. Thus, I am not giving up on my 4-7" prediction. And remember, 4-7 means 4 to 7, not 7! Now I want to be brutally honest with you because I saw someone giving me credit I didn't entirely deserve. It is true that midweek, I called into question the outrageous snow totals the American model was spitting out, as much as 18" at one point. So I was right about that. But I did backtrack slightly when I conceded that 4-7" of snow was possible, especially with the unusually high solid to liquid ratios. So if we get less than 4", I will have to confess that I went too high. There are many models out there right now telling me I'm wrong. Time will tell. As I said earlier, I'm looking at processes, not a computer program spitting out numbers. I didn't need to suffer through 4 years of calculus at Penn State to read numbers to people. I just wish all the clickbaiters out there that showed the outrageous snow totals earlier in the week would have the guts to admit they overdid it. Not holding my breath on that one. So that's really about it. It's a wait and see game from now until 1-2am Sunday morning. I'm doing the best I can with what I know and my over 46 years of experience. I'm not perfect but I promise you if I'm wrong, it won't be due to lack of effort.

Emerald Isle?

Same at the Wake/Franklin line. Very hard to think we will get much. I saw @PackGrad05 say don’t lose hope may come on later for Wake. Hope that means northern Wake too.

Virga. Literally under one of the heavier returns on the radar …. Scratch that just started snowing.

Decent flakes here in Wendell for the last 30. Liking those returns moving up from south of here.

This is banter but I’ve been saying that for 5 years. People are more motivated by likes and clicks. Not by being factual or correct

Brick we are in a good spot. SE Franklin County here right at the Wake line. I’d venture to say 3-5” here. If the next run holds consistent I’d say 6”.

Going to be a fun week. Fixed that for you.

Looks like cold chasing moisture. Never pans out I’m playing reverse psychology here.

Snow with light sleet mixed in here after a bit of sleet to begin 3 miles east of Youngsville, NC.(Southeast Franklin County) Deck dusted. Weather friend neigbor 2 houses over weather station says 32°. Short range models seem to have us on the higher side of the tight gradient.

Depends on the winds. I’ve seen lake effect off of Kerr Lake/Buggs Island on the NC VA border.

Interesting thought by Eric

I know it can’t be taken verbatim but I feel like we get a pretty good thump tonight based on the NAM here in Franklin County. I’m about 3 miles east of Youngsville. Figure maybe we can squeeze out a solid 3-5 here.

Here is Fishel’s post on FB. SORRY I'M LATE. HERE WE GO! I want to discuss two concepts with you, so I hope you'll take the time to read this in its entirety. I'm going to discuss 2 things in a fair amount of detail. First, the atmosphere is an incredibly complex system. It can be simulated extremely well by a myriad of mathematical equations that mimic the laws of physics and thermodynamics. However, these equations do not provide exact solutions, and add to that the fact that models are very dependent on initial conditions. And no analysis of current conditions is perfect, because we don't have enough observations to make it perfect. So there is inherent error in model forecasts right from the start, and those errors only grow with time. A trained monkey can read a map! What I as a meteorologist try to do is look at the processes involved in a given weather event, and try to decide if the model output is consistent with those processes. I mentioned yesterday that the disturbance in the southern branch of the jet stream was weakening, and that the disturbance in the northern branch could very well be too far north to do us any good with regard to snow. My views on that haven't changed, even though the models are oscillating wildly as to how much, if any snow we will get. Now, concept #2 is instability. You usually only hear me talk about that when it comes to thunderstorms and tornadoes. But it's a much broader concept. Imagine a ball at the base of a valley. No matter how hard you push that ball up the hill, it's eventually gonna return to its original place. Now imagine a ball at the top of a mountain. You give it a shove and it accelerates down the hill and never returns to it's original location. There is something in meteorology called baroclinic instability. The word baroclinic refers to a zone of temperature contrast, which we clearly have with this front moving through today. The instability refers to a certain threshold that must be met for a low pressure area to form and intensify. What I feel is happening here is that one model run falls just short of that threshold, while the next barely exceeds it, and hence the differences in how far west the precipitation gets tomorrow afternoon and night. And frankly, I'm not smart enough to know which side of that threshold we will end up on. So all I know to do is give you the range of possibilities. I will not take credit for any outcome, as I have already admitted to you that my confidence level is very low. The best(worst) case scenario for snow lovers is 3-5 inches. The worst(best) case scenario for the Triangle is a Trace of snow tomorrow afternoon and night. The most likely solution in my mind is 1-3", but I am in no hurry to call my bookie in Vegas and put any money on it! I know this was a long read, and I hope at least some of it makes sense. I'm not gonna pretend to be confident when I'm not. That would be lying, and my parents brought me up better than to do that! As always, I will keep an eye on things and update as needed. Happy Thursday!

WxRiskupallnight on Twitter. He’s around Richmond. Interesting guy.

Brick, I’ve been a lurker for many years with a random post here or there. We are not far from each other from what I can gather from your posts over the years. I think the models are all getting on the same page. Looks from the models we are in a good spot for our area. Barring any warm nose which has spoiled our fun the past several storms over the years. Should be fun to watch it unfold. Hope everything holds through the day today.

That’s exactly what I was thinking @TARHEELPROGRAMMER88

@Brick Tamland somebody asked him about accumulations for Raleigh in response to the Tweet Tarheel posted and his response was “significant”. That what I’m guessing the other poster is referring to.

These storms are always why I am happy to be close to the Wake/Franklin line. Always seems we do well. Mixed bag for us for sure @Brick Tamland going off what I’ve seen so far. I think it’s going to be a mess here by Monday.