stadiumwave

CanSips August update 500mb is golden for winter for eastern 1/2. Too bad its CanSips

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018080100&fh=4

JAMSTEC July update is a pretty epic DEC-FEB. Below normal temps & above normal precip for entire east. 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

On 7/9/2018 at 11:03 PM, jaxjagman said:

Not horrid looking anyways,right now

Considering NMME's extreme warm bias that's a colder winter.

2009-10 of course is going to end up being at least "an" analog with solar. ENSO will probably be similar although doubt we get a moderate Nino like that winter. Summer so far 500mb is polar opposite of 2009.

2014-15 could be another possible analog simply because this just has the feel of strong west coast ridging (PDO is going to spike,  signs there already) & tendency for +NAO leaves a very cold source region over east Canada & Hudson Bay.

Low solar will more than likely enhance high latitude blocking, most likely in the EPO region or at least currently has that feel. I will say this, still coming out of a Nina background state, I'm not sold on super +NAO continuing just yet. I think NE ends up colder with +NAO with this setup versus having a -NAO. Of course, not exactly what you want to hear as far as big noreasters, however, all its takes is a transient -NAO block to work magic. 

From my standpoint smart money overall at this point is a colder than average NE. AND REMEMBER, these are very preliminary thoughts. Lots can change depending on ENSO..etc.

On 11/2/2017 at 4:17 PM, Angrysummons said:

It isn't more east based, it is becoming more centrally based. 95-96 is a horrible analog. 96-97 would be a better analog.

I'm not sure why you say that. It clearly has an east-based look currently. CFS forecasts it to remain that way in DEC.

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

He's prob talking about the southern route. The deeper main channel northern route never opened this year. 

In his defense...that is not how the media reported it. Big headlines & the words unprecedented used. I looked at the satellite data & thought "What the heck?", it's not open. 

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

 

I would be more impressed with early minimums decades ago when the ice was much more widespread and therefore had more vulnerable ice to give back. 

 

Getting an early minimum when all the easy ice is already melted and all we have is a compact core left is not as impressive, it's almost expected.  

 

What is impressive is how we continue to shed ice most years despite losing all the vulnerable ice well before the end of the season. Shows you how pathetic the cryosphere has been over the last 15 years. 

Lol...ok

On 6/26/2017 at 2:29 PM, forkyfork said:

it says a lot about the state of the ice that mundane melt weather could still bring a top 5 low finish

Actually...to me it's pretty remarkable we don't beat 2012 considering where we started.

Anyone know where GlobalWarmer poster is? I figured he'd be all over this.  Kind of concerns me he's not posting. 

I believe he was previously named frivolous.

6 hours ago, frontranger8 said:

Ice loss has slowed the past few days, as expected. No Icepocalypse, nothing like 2012.

Folks who were hoping for 2012 cyclone repeat forget that volume is better than that summer.

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

You can look at it both ways this year...we had a record warm spring (after a record warm winter) and June actually wasn't that cold...maybe slightly below normal, but it ranked like 19th or something since 1979. 2013 and 2014 ranked in the top 5 coldest. There was unprecedented open water on the pacific side early in the season. So the ice came into this summer in about the worst shape it could have given the starting point at the end of last melt season. Yet, we're not going to come close to the record.

 

On the other hand, July and August have been cold and yet we're still challenging the 2nd lowest season. So that sounds impressive too.

 

 

It will be a race between the ESS arm of ice melting down and the CAB slush pool refreezing late this month that determines the exact spot we finish.

 

 

Agree on both accounts

6 hours ago, csnavywx said:

To finish 2nd, shadow CT needs to drop 326k from its current readings. (It would need 996k for 1st.) The next few days look fairly cold and stormy, but the EPS shows conditions favorable for melt from D5 onwards. As weak as the remnant ESS arm of the pack is at the moment, I would expect almost all (if not entirely all) of that part to melt off. The Laptev arm isn't looking too hot either, but it's late enough that it'll probably survive in some fashion. At this time, a solid 2nd place finish looks good. Pretty remarkable, considering the vast majority of the summer remained colder than normal.

Considering where we started I think it's remarkable that this year wasn't a record melt!

If I've learned anything before it's don't count your chickens before they hatch.  Anything can happen of the next few weeks & catch everyone off guard. I'm not implying it will but unforseen weather patterns never ceases to amaze me.

Collapsing Greenland glacier could raise sea levels by half a metre, say scientists

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/12/collapsing-greenland-glacier-could-raise-sea-levels-by-half-a-metre-say-scientists?CMP=twt_a-science_b-gdnscience?CMP=twt_a-science_b-gdnscience

Oh me....I'm scared...lol.

Some of you live in scientific lala land. Stop fantasizing

How much do they pay you to downplay everything? Longest fetch of easterly winds on record locally, about 14 days.

 

We know there was potential for a EC landfall and blocking highs everywhere. The TC simply pumped the ridge too much and moved SW. Timing was literally off by 6 hours. Next time we won't be this lucky.

 

Wasn't even worth it. The system was immensely damaging to area beaches/communities thru moderate coastal flooding due to the pressure gradient. It was actually more impactful than Irene locally. Winds were on par with Irene.

Digressing as usual. Hurricane J is not missing the United States in a typical fashion, being pushed by a ULL and surrounded by record high pressure due to the Atlantic flipping to the Hansen mode.

LMAO...does your mind stay in fantasy land?

The heat is a major factor.

This heat is unprecedented in our records.

It's well known that drought intensifies the heat....not vice versa

The warming of the last 1.5 years & the NOAA hiatus busting paper has ignited life & boldness to alarmism in every thread.

Hansen is a tool...

Where can we read your work?

My abs hurt now...lol.

We are just at that weird juncture where tipping points happen. Usually in stable hothouse Earth states the diurnal minimum is very small. The fluctuations we see are more like tri-monthly variations in jet stream orientations rather than biweekly extremes.

AGW has not yet progressed to the point where it can significantly diminish cold outbreaks over every region in a given year. I think AGW has recently became a major influence, especially since 2010.

The contribution from AGW is at least 35% on current weather variability.

Take a look at the conus visible. It's full of smoke, the most i've ever seen.

Extreme events won't stop after the strong el nino is gone.

When has there ever been a period of history without extreme weather events? There hasn't been, so you're right.

If PDO goes negative & we have a couple of strong La Nina's expect a couple of huge tornado years...but it's not AGW.

AGW is real but is WAY over hyped in its role in extreme weather. To me extreme weather events that have always occurred has become a launching pad for sensationalists like yourself to say it's a carbon footprint. The last coue of severe winters were blamed on AGW but recent peer reviewed literature has shut that up:

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/study-climate-change-does-not-cause-extreme-winters.html