stadiumwave

@snowman19 will love Eric's x post https://x.com/webberweather/status/1984452081617682708?t=6qNVfSMRsFXJChnmC4f3RQ&s=19

New CanSips looks pretty good for DJF. Dec looks really good & Jan not shabby either. I would share but I cannot get anything to share on this forum anymore. Everything is too big. Good grief, it is 2025.

https://x.com/WeatherCast3/status/1983676660441608298?t=MkG2LcaKNgoy2livxLnTfQ&s=19 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1983600768579231901?t=9Rm6DaUjXjnWGAtakpFQ2g&s=19

Last 2 winters it has a hard time getting into phase 8. This might continue.

Sorry, not trying to be a smartguy. And no I do not have a ton of time to post, but I do read. And when you make a point about cooling SST's in NPAC as a slam dunk against a 2013 type blob, I felt it was very fair to give an accurate analysis. Personally, I do not think having a warm NPAC will equal some 2013-14 type winter, but that is beside the point. The NPAC on Oct 24th, 2013 is very similar to the current look with the exception that the current anomalies are warmer. Oct 24, 2013 Current And as far as when 2013 warmth returned tonthe Eastern NPAC it was not until the later part of DEC: NOV 14, 2013 DEC 15, 2013 Sorry, it ruffled your feathers.

If you're referring simply to the SST's in N Pac, I guess you have not bothered to look at the progression of the NPAC in Fall & Winter 2013?? NPAC went from emerging blob in Sept to colder than now in Oct & then warm again by the end of DEC. https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/6/#findComment-127931 Go look for yourself: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html

Are you sure about that? Looks clearly east. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

@snowman19 is lagging

@greenskeeper how about you go challenge Roundy since you're so smart? You're the weenie. No objevtivity whatsoever. I bet you did not even read because that's what most of you do. You will NOT entertain any point from anyone that threatens you're own understanding. A closed mind is just a disgrace to science. I guess I'd understand if one were completely denying the science about "greenhouse gases". That is not what Roundy & many others are doing.

This is a golden chain of tweets from Paul Roundy, who is no denier, and is a brilliant Atmospheric Scientist. I highly encourage clicking the thread & reading objectively.

Whoops

"Always", yes as far as time scales. But thee are cases that the response is very quick & there are cases the lag is significant. It's not always the same. Other factors play a role in response. I don't know if I can find it but I'm pretty sure Paul Roundy participated in a really good peer-reviewed study on "lag". If I find it I'll link it. I might just have to ask Paul for it. So, might take a day or 2.

This is not 100% accurate. There is "sometimes" a lag that's either brief or moderate & there are times that there's hardly lag at all. I didn't read what yall were arguing about just your statement. "Sometimes" & at differing intervals is more accurate.

Oh say it again!! 100% true! I mean this is an unusual fall & winter for predictive indices. Why not? Lol

I'll be honest, I'm surprised at the magnitude of cold thats showing up on OP & Ensembles. I thought we'd get cold but was not sure deep cold was achievable this winter. But the OP & Ensemble signals are strong. And I'm referring to west of APPS. I'm not in northeast but the northeast does not have to have the deepest of the cold to get the winter storms with the -NAO block they're likely. If fact I'd argue if you want snow you certainly do not want the heart of the cold where it will be dryer

12z CFS Weeklies just had its best looking 4-6 weeks on the model its had yet.

0z Euro still has a clean SPV split at 10mb & 50mb

The JAN 9 potential winter storm...the A.I products are closer to the 12z EURO & ironically the BSR correlation. BSR is not 1:1 correlation on systems always but can be close at times. Just noticed A.I. & 12z EPS much closer:

FWIW, the BSR would support more of the 12z EPS look, rather than the GEFS. Not any sign of troublesome ridging in the east through JAN 20ish time frame. BSR has a correlation of general pattern 17-21 days later. The dates on the graphs are based on 19 days. So when looking & it says JAN 10th, you're talking about JAN 8-12 ish, so dates are not exact. Click on JAN 2024 icon & then at bottom of page the image shows. Top bar daily surface, bottom is daily 500: http://joe.organicforecasting.com/BsrEar/Bsr/

Add - 18z GEFS has now split at 10mb & 50mb

12z EPS Days 11-15....freaking beautiful Day 15

12z EURO split SPV at 10mb & 50mb EDIT: I'm wondering if this trends stronger again.