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Everything posted by CPcantmeasuresnow
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The NYC figure of 20.2 for the January 1996 storm is just another in a long line of classic under measured storms. They didn't even take any measurements after the last couple of bands came through which was after they threw out the 20.2 figure that had no basis in what actually fell which was in the 24-28 inch range in Manhattan. This of course was during the era where the Central Park Zookeeper took the measurements. Rumor during the period was one of the monkeys was doing the actual measuring.
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The proof of their under measurements even back in the 1800’s, and as you say what is now an almost 200 year tradition in NYC is the pictures of Manhattan after the blizzard of 1888. 21 inches? Ridiculous, more like 36 which is what they measured in Brooklyn. MJO812 would have been in paradise.
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In March 2012 Chicago had a nine day stretch in the middle of the month where they hit 80 or above 8 of the 9 days. The one day they didn’t it hit 79. I always wonder what that stretch would have looked like in mid July. Scary thought.
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Don’t you live in the LHV in NY? Look at a map geographically that’s not the mid Atlantic. WDC, Delaware Virginia that’s the mid Atlantic.
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If you run a line about 30 miles south of Binghamton and Albany to near the MAss/NH border to the south shore of Maine, to about 30 miles north of NYC and 20 miles north of the LI sound you've had a bad winter, but at least a storm or two or three. I had 12 inches from the December 2-3 storm and a grand total of 8.5 inches since. Anywhere south of that line you just haven't had anything worth even mentioning.
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A fair assessment considering the tone of the last couple of hours of conversation. I’m still stuck at 20.5 inches on the season and looks like I’m not adding anything of significance any time soon. Throw in the ridiculous temps since Dec 22 and this now ranks in my bottom three winters of all time. This will also be the first winter I’ve never gone below 5. Other than the first two weeks of December what was even the point of having winter?
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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
CPcantmeasuresnow replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
I'm in eastern Orange County about 45 miles due north of Manhattan and received 16 inches form the October storm. It was a disaster for the trees. I lost 4 flowering pear trees from that storm,. They didn't cancel Halloween here as the storm was on the 29th. It was interesting to see kids trick or treating with what was still an 8-10 inch snow cover on Halloween. -
I checked the records at Poughkeepsie airport yesterday which go back to 1933 for temperatures. There is only one winter since 1933 that the temperature did not go below 5° and in that winter (1952/53) it got down to 6°. We are in pretty uncharted waters here regarding the mild winter temperatures.
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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
CPcantmeasuresnow replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Brooklyn is the worst spot, other than a couple of places on the south shore for snow in NY state. Go 40 geographical miles NW, N or NE of NYC and you go from a 25 inch average to a 45-50 inch average. You'll get colder average winter temps than Boston and comparable or better snowfall average than Bostons 43.8 inch per season. It makes a big difference especially regarding sustained snow pack. WTS, this winter had been pitiful for everyone in the Northeast in a line about 20-40 miles south of BInghamton to Albany to the NH/Mass border. -
February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
CPcantmeasuresnow replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Wow got all the way down to 23° this morning, only three degrees above the normal low for the date of 20°. What a pitiful excuse for a winter. Keep rooting for those sustained 70's in March warmists, I don't see any problems with that, perfectly normal. -
Bluewave posted this a couple of days ago. If NYC doesn't get another measurable snowfall this season it will be the earliest end to the accumulating snows in a season ever. That sounds about right, this has been historically bad, why not set the record.
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Even if he was somehow was right about March (and he won't be), what would that prove? He made one right call out of his last dozen. He'd still be a joke.
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70's mid month on? That would be about 25 degrees above normal. Maybe for a day or two but mid month on, I hope not. That would approach the March 2012 in Chicago, where they had 8 out of 9 days 80° or above. That was freaky and F'd up their trees big time. I could do without it.
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My low so far for this season is 5.1°. I believe this may be the first season ever the temperature never got below 5°. If it doesn't happen by March 15th it's not happening, and I don't see anything upcoming to make that happen.
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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
CPcantmeasuresnow replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Central Park had the 27.5 inches from the January 23 storm and 5.3 inches for the entire season other than the storm with a 32.8 total. Combine that with the above normal temps in January and February, the warmest December ever exceeding the second warmest by 7 degrees, and the 4th warmest March ever, it still baffles me how anyone can call that a good winter. To each his own though. -
I forget who it was that said several days ago that the Tug Hill was having a bad year. My response was 150-200 inches in a season is a bad year for them. Looks like their season will be improving. Just checked back a page. It was Animal, the man who declared, it's over. I wholeheartedly agree.
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I received 24.9 inches in 15/16 but probably all of our difference there was the 11.2 inches I received being on the northern fringe (for 3-4 hours until the heavier bands rotated out) of the Jan 23 2016 storm. I know places 25 miles north of me received 0 from that storm and one of my kids 30 miles south in NNJ received 30 inches. In 2011/12 it was 29.2 inches, 16 of it from the October storm, 4.7 on Jan 21, 3.0 on Feb 24 and 2.7 on Feb 29th. All other events were an inch or less. That was very close to this season on the stinker scale, along with 2015/16
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I'm currently at 20.5 so this would now rank as my worst winter accumulation wise in the ten years I've kept complete records. Add in the abnormally high temperatures and so far it has to rank as a top 3 stinker of all time. However as Julian alluded too, I'm pretty sure there will be several inches somewhere along the line in March or April that will take me above my all time recorded low of 24.9 in 2015/16. Anyone have records from 2001/02? I'm thinking that season had to be less than 20 inches around here. I blanked that season out completely, as I hopefully will do regarding this season in time.
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February 2020 General Discussions & Observations Thread
CPcantmeasuresnow replied to Rtd208's topic in New York City Metro
Not entirely true. February 2016 ended up being about 2° above normal and March 2016 ended up being the 4th warmest March on record. A horrible winter overall, with one historic storm for NYC (28-31 inches) and close by burbs (we in the North land got screwed by that one) that melted in most places in several days. That's not my idea of winter. -
Let's not, the climates F'd up enough as it is. What a brutal non winter.
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Winter 76-77... can it repeat before 2045?
CPcantmeasuresnow replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Move that up two years and have the 60 inch storm Dec 20th or so followed by Jan through March 2014. Now that's a winter season to remember. -
What's the rush, it's 8 days away. This is a little like seeing Christmas decorations on Labor Day.
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That's just not true. I looked at the 6Z GFS this morning and it had 30 inches for me for March 5th, six hours later I looked at the 12Z and it had 2 inches for Match 5th, it couldn't be more different.
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Just for laughs, the 6Z GFS this morning buries NWNJ and the HV with 30 inches of snow 12 days from now. Given the clairvoyance of the GFS long range this year start preparing now.
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Whatever your screen name was in 2010/11 I'd advise to going back to that. 53 straight days of snow cover in NYC, and 37 days of 6 inch or greater snow cover and Dec Jan Feb actually averaged near normal or below each month, 32.8, 29.7 and 36.0 respectively. Let's have that winter again.