HVSnowLover
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Everything posted by HVSnowLover
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Its shifted SE the last 4 runs but none of the other models are trending (CMC actually has been trending north each run) so it's either onto something no other model is seeing or it's in complete lala land.
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It's unfortunate that it runs 4 times a day so it's harder to avoid looking at but I am done with this model if it's really this bad 4 days before a storm.
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GFS not caving with the colder solution for Thursday, I don't trust it at all but it will either score a coup or I will never bother looking at this model again
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Yea to me it's a waste, I don't need to freeze between two rainstorms, rather have Spring if the pattern never changes
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6Z GFS was less amped than 0Z and Euro looked a little less amped than 12Z, I know I'm, grasping at straws though, this isn't our storm, it never is this winter, at best it might be a front end snow for the interior portions of the forum
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GFS in a span of 4 runs goes from supressed to our south to an inland track with temps hitting 50 for the region, I'm so done with this winter
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True the beginning of December wasn't awful although the storms were dissapointments for the city, then there was the miracle snow from the GLC but other than that its been rough
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Yea I can't remember a winter where we've had a pattern this bad for the entire winter, usually we get a week or two of at least some adjustment
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It definitely has snowed in bad patterns, we've had thread the needle events before, it just doesn't ever happen this winter
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Unfortunately I agree, I would be surprised if the final outcome isn't a lot a warmer than whats being depicted on the GFS. It has just an absolutely nonexistent winter basically anywhere south of I84
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Didn't we have March two years ago produce like 4 snowstorms for the area, it can definitely happen if the pattern is right. (Yes I'm aware some of those storms were dissapointing but definitely performed bigtime for parts of the region)
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Probably mostly sleet/ZR with the initial push in your area, then rain and maybe ending as snow Friday afternoon.
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There may be wet flakes at the very end down to the NW suburbs but that's about it.
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CMC caves for Thursday
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Yea I feel I need to go somewhere at some point this winter to see snow but Killington is too far thats why I wish the snow line actually would at least push down to the Catskills.
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There's no real reason not to, every threat gets worse and worse, every pattern change gets delayed and delayed. It may just not happen this winter. I'm sure it will snow again but I doubt we get a good pattern.
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The cutter was flatter on the 12Z Euro than 0Z and yet the second storm was way worse so I'm not sure how much one impacts the other
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Honestly the models have been showing the snow line pushing down to CNE for weeks now and that hasn't even been happening. This is just a pathetic winter almost everywhere until we see otherwise
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Yea this is why I don't care about what models show 6 days out
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I'd say it's more than guessing but I agree I wouldn't trust anything it shows until the next two storms are nailed down
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All 3 models are a snow event right now but the line is very close to the city and we all know how the trends go... but this may be the best chance
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It may be real and it's somewhat promising every model has it but I'm sure the depiction (temps, intensity, strength etc) will dramatically change depending on what the 3 storms before it do
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CMC/GFS both with a solid icing event Thursday for basically all the NW suburbs, this seems to be the biggest possible threat of the week right now.
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This far out I'm not even bothering especially when there are 3 storms still to sort out before this
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The CMC PCPN Type maps are out for 0Z
