Vol4Life

New Disco from a few minutes ago from Morristown: As the winter weather events approaches late tonight into early Sunday morning models are beginning to come in to better agreement but still highly uncertain where the strong gradient in snowfall totals will setup. A surface lows is currently tracking along the northern Gulf as an upper level trough progresses across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Surface temperatures are currently in the 30s areawide. There are a few locations in the higher elevations and in SW VA that are currently below freezing but most of us will need help from some dry air advection and dynamic cooling from heavy precipitation. Looking at the current radar, the main band of precipitation that will bring snowfall to the area is still back in Arkansas. Models have this rotating through the forecast area Sunday morning. In fact, some of the NAM model soundings indicate around 100 J/Kg of elevated CAPE early Sunday. The lift is fairly impressive in this band as the surface low transitions to the GA coast. Snowfall totals will be highly dependent upon where this band tracks and just how much cooling occurs under this precipitation. With models continuing to trend towards higher amounts in this band, adjusted amounts up slightly for locations in extreme NE TN and SW VA. Most models suggest there will be a strong gradient in amounts just to the north of the Knoxville metro area. Model soundings have a nearly isothermal profile along the 0 degree Celsius isotherm below 700 mb or so for portions of the central and northern Tennessee Valley. Based on the latest guidance and forecast went ahead and extended the warning and advisory slightly southwestward. Also, for the update cut back on snowfall totals across the southern Valley. Model soundings suggest that most locations will stay enough above freezing to keep precipitation mostly rain. Even if there was a brief mixture, do not think much would be able to stick with temperatures staying just a couple of degrees above freezing.

The WWA which includes Knoxville was updated about 30 minutes ago and says 2-4 inches.

Awesome! Thanks Carvers!

Hey Carvers...crush job even for the Central Valley?

Been since last year since I posted, but getting back in the game now that it’s winter and there’s a potential for snow. I’m sure everyone has seen, but haven’t seen it posted. Knoxville and points north are now in a WWA. Calling for 2-5 inches.