CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Greater DC area jack.
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We simply cannot know yet.
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Yeah it's drier. Something like 4-8 is probably more reasonable than the huge totals some runs have been spitting out.
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Euro is more amplified and has less confluence/weaker HP to the north. CMC and GFS are pretty similar. CMC already has moderate snow for us and GFS is trending that way.
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This is so close to something good.
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I told y'all this period was gonna trend better.
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You mean the GEFS Here is the EPS-
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Light snow falling here now.
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I know lol. I am most definitely a stickler for homophone misuse(abuse). I rarely do it. I always re-read what I wrote right after posting just to double check for misspellings etc.
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I mean, I effing corrected that like 30 seconds after I posted lol. ofc you caught it.
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Just having a little fun. When the models were cranking out the epic snow for our current window, I never bought it given the UL pattern. Snow/mix/ rain slop was the most likely outcome for these events. The fact we might sneak in a moderate snow event this week before it gets washed away by the next wave is a huge win to me. Getting perfect timing/spacing/amplification multiple times is asking too much in an 'okay' pattern. Looks like a fun period upcoming overall.
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This is the beginning/lead in to our upcoming epic (multi KU) period. It's not etched in stone that this will be a big MA rainier with cold coming in behind imo. A few days ago I had a little fun with the PD III possibility, and it won't be that, but a rain ending as snow deal or a secondary wave is a possibility Sunday into Monday.
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I'm not sure anyone else could have seen the persistently favorable h5 looks advertised by LR guidance for that period and made a bold call for a big winter storm.
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29 and cloudy
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6z EPS A half to 1 inch of that from about DC south is from today.
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There is a break between the 2 waves. The second one begins as snow before going over to mix/rain. This is the actual snow map for wave one, and up to an inch of that for central VA into S MD is from today.
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Suppose its snowing heavily in S VA and you are smoking cirrus? Without an Arctic airmass in place your more northern area could easily be warmer.
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I never said the ensembles looked amazing for next weekend, but there is some uncertainly for that period wrt the overall evolution and storm track.
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Don't sleep on late next weekend/PD. Probably not PD III but I have kind of liked that period. Some ens members on the 12z run were pretty interesting.
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Why expect it to be the same? Different op run at range- more than a week out.
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+NAO? That's mine btw.
