40/70 Benchmark

If you have clandestine blockbuster aspirations, then you are going to end up flustered because this is not that type of system....but I see it as a high percentage play for moderate impact.

I foresee at least a good 4-8" deal, and maybe more like 6-10"....classic SWFE that includes a digging SW to the west attenuating, as it encounters said confluent flow over se Canada.

I foresee at least a good 4-8" deal, and maybe more like 6-10".

Its running into confluence, that is why. I don't think it means any less snowfall for SNE because otherwise, it would track further west.

Ideally we could all sneak a little FRZ Drizzle, which is key in providing protection from the quickly strengthening solar irradiance this time of year.

Sell.

I'll be ambivalent because I want to be right, but its certainly better than busting high, like I have the past two seasons....started to feel like Henry Margusity without the degree.

I would take the IP/FRZ over 1-2" of fluff on Sunday.

I would actually like to get some of that to seal the pack, but I don't think the warming aloft will get far enough north....

I feel pretty confident my call for Methuen of 50-60" will bust a bit low, which pisses me off because I was torn on whether to go 50-60", of 60-70". Looks like I choose wrong. I think my seasonals will generally run a bit low in SNE, and high in NNE.

Yea, no complaints about the season in general....we had a boring month, but that is climo.

I have avoided the 2010 act, thankfully...that was brutal.

I think you should get some Tuesday. Sunday is crap, anyway...not missing much. Kev can post as many confused emoji's as he wants, it won't change the fact that its a couple of inches of fluff.

This is the Jeff's antichrist pattern....storms bailing ENE, instead of NE. Ya hate to see it-

Nah, me neither.

Me neither. I'm all for switching it up, even though I have done well here.....don't think the majority would agree. lol

GFS is a nightmare for you....even I would prefer it further north. No sense sweating details at this stage, though.

Not a surprising trend given that confluence over se Canada.

Reality will be further north, anyway.

That looks like a boring event for me on the GFS.

Just going to the cape.

Problem is mother nature probably won't lol

GFS looks good for the real threat, on the 17th..

Gave this one a "D". Should have went with my instinct on First Call. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/february-9-snowfall-verification.html February 9 Snowfall Verification: Meteorology vs "Modelology" The Role of the Forecaster Contemporary forecasting models are undoubtedly more skilled than ever before, and accordingly play a large role in the in the development of forecasts. However, there is a reason that they are referred to as "guidance". After all, if they were flawless, then there would be no need for meteorologists. Thus it is incumbent upon the forecaster to utilize discretion when incorporating this data into a forecast. The primary role of the forecaster is to utilize a blend of a foundational understanding of how the atmosphere operates, a knowledge of climatology and forecasting experiences to distinguish when said guidance is accurately, and when it is in error. Sometimes it is important for the forecaster to resist the innate urge to relay on this guidance, instead deferring to a visceral, "gut" instinct that is incongruent with the data. This poor forecast was a splendid illustration of this. Here is the snowfall from yesterday across the region: The prevailing thought process that guided the First Call was that snowfall would be light, due to very meager frontogenesis and OMEGA (lift), which obviously ended up very close to reality. However, guidance inexplicably became more aggressive in terms of snowfall during the day on Monday, thus the Final Call was begrudgingly adjusted accordingly, against better judgement. This was obviously too aggressive, and thus a bad forecast that resulted from the over reliance upon guidance. The lesson here is practice meteorology, not "modelology". Learn to trust your instinct as a forecaster- Final Grade: D Perhaps the saving grace is that the pattern over the course of the next week looks likely to provide ample opportunity for redemption.

NB