40/70 Benchmark

I was still waiting for the other shoe to drop, and break mild this month for a delayed-but not-denied outcome in relation to pre-seasons thoughts for Feb, but I'm just in wait and see, at this point. I am confident that once it breaks, we will have a nice spring. My gut is that I'm getting at least another 10" of snow....I don't feel like this winter is going to leave me with significantly below normal snowfall.

Depends....if the energy is transferring as the system passes though the region, then north east could be best. In any event, latitude may finally pay dividends over the course of the coming week.

My gut is they both end up mainly snow/sleet in my area, since big ice is pretty rare.

16" is still okay with me.

5-7" on the ensemble mean at day 5 is not bad at all....pretty robust.

Yea, I conceded that a while ago. I whiffed on Feb, clearly.

@Great Snow 1717, Please pinch measure for me this weekend...thanks.

James can't catch a break

I think at this point, Jeff would just take the 9" over the next 3 weeks and run lol

I can't until we verify widespread warning on Tuesday, then he explains why he still wasn't wrong in 124, 843 words or less. He'll pick some obscure detail that no one else thinks is a big deal, and claim it changes everything, as he hops aboard the consensus train.

What is annoying is your arrogant tendency to assume someone either doesn't understand, or is out of touch with reality whenever they disagree. Believe it or not, despite how verbose and nauseatingly long winded your posts are, its possible for those who have the balls and tenacity to venture to read the whole thing to understand and simply disagree. Yes, most SWs have trended toward increased attenuation from the mid range this season, but that doesn't necessarily mean that we can't see a warning event out of this and I have explained why. Didn't we just see a 4-8" event end up with a band of 10-15" four days ago? Now we're done-

LOL I just noticed @dryslot's avatar

Popecast?

I'm guessing it trended south lol

I envision a wall of snow moving in Tues AM...virga to heavy in ten minutes...BANG. Quick 7", followed by pings, then slot.

I completely get what he is saying because we have seen SWs attenuate as they move towards us all season long. But I think its pretty clear that this one will maintain enough strength while crashing into an arctic high for widespread several inches. I think the high is a game changer that really elevates the floor here via isentropic lift. I just don't see the mechanisms for appreciable precip production completely drying up, no pun intended. Now, I agree that some of these runs, like the 00z EURO, dropping widespread 10-12" are overdone....but widespread 6"+ where it is mostly snow is pretty likely.

That signal was not as strong as the one for Tuesday within 5 days. I know that I never expected much from it.

Yea, I was lumping BGM more in with spots like Ithaca.

I get your point. I think you're wrong...and you should get over it frankly. I don't see fast flow as being prohibitive of a moderate 4-8" or 6-10" type of "payload" from an attenuating system in the face of confluence, abutting arctic air.

Yea, that is what I figured.

Yea, but its not exactly a LES belt is my point.

I'll take the over on that. Highly doubt this ends up 2-4" in this area....maybe further south due to precip type issues.

A prevalent model bias, in addition to not being aggressive enough with mid level warming to the east of the mid level lows, is to be too heavy with QPF.