40/70 Benchmark

Thank god the dewy rev is gone...I like the cold biased version better.

Here is the source that I cited for those looking for more information on la nina structure. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/16742834.2018.1386538

Edge of my seat...

Very negative EPO, too...that was all pacific.

Hey, I am def not rooting against that analog...lol Cosgrove was mentioning it last night.

The weaker la nina is, the more chances for other variables to intervene.

Not necessarily...on paper, 2010 was perfect...but those patterns lead more room for suppression.

We are far enough north that lining up the slot machines with all $ doesn't always end well...the mid atl needs that.

Stronger la nina correlates to a -PDO, not the other way around....huge Aleutian ridge forces a downstream western US trough.

We are talking about a very negative PDO, 2014-2015 was very positive...that year was el nino, this is la nina, so you lost me on that. Believe me, I would be perfectly fine if things played out like that, though...

Most la nina are negative PDO....especially stronger ones.

-PDO doesn't make la nina stronger, but it's not the best signal for winter in the east...means -PNA is more favored and makes polar fields more important. It's not a deal breaker, though.

I don't see enough evidence that la nina will be centered far enough west to be a real stinker. Doesn't mean it can't happen...

Why do you have 2014-2015 listed as an analog?

My guess is it comes in pretty similarly to last year....modestly to moderately negative.

Anthony will have that littered throughout social media within the hour lol

ACE juggernaut

@raindancewxwhen is your NAO formula ready?

It will be weak enough...just hope it doesn't up more west-based.

I'm not endorsing that solution...merely explaining what the Euro tweak entails. I agree.

First frost is fast approaching.....discuss.

Yea, I figured as much.

Based on what?

The tweak is specifically to address the tropics. Taken from FB: "Apparently the Euro will be getting a big upgrade in a few weeks, and this update is specifically designed to fix some of the errors that have popped up in recent years in the tropics since the update they made in 2018, which was designed to increase the model’s accuracy with mesoscale features up at Europe’s latitude. Anywho, this new Euro designed to be more like the old Euro with tropical systems is now running parallel to current Euro. And wouldn’t you know it? It shows a violent capture with the upper level low and pinwheels a major hurricane into southeast New England next weekend". More details: "Cycle upgrade 47r3 will bring improvements to the assimilation and observations usage and a significantly improved physical basis for moist processes, necessary to facilitate further development of the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and future application at convection-permitting resolutions. The upgrade will bring more accurate upper air fields, particularly tropical winds, as well as precipitation in convective regimes. Several new convection-related products will be available and systematic errors are reduced for wind gusts and visibility for fog and precipitation".

Its def. erratic if you only consider phase/intensity and not structure (ie placement of strongest anomalies and attendant convective forcing scheme). I think that clears up alot, though obviously still not perfect. Anyway, its beneficial that we have so many different methodologies.