40/70 Benchmark

Yea, my bad.

Yea, in the end, I would be surprised if we make it to 1/20 with nothing to show for it....its tough for everything to get shunted.

You would have to think that the Monday deal not being allowed to gain much latitude would limit how much it could interfere with your follow up deal.

I think Steve said he was at average snowfall.

Friday is worth watching...maybe Will can speak more to how much that SW I referenced is sampled right now, and when it may be over a less data sparse domain.

Admittedly, yes.

Ha I wish....06z ICON.

That thing is up in the arctic right now, so maybe not sampled well if you want a beacon of hope...If that lobe of energy is further away and and/or weaker, that storm would hit IMO.

How a Pattern can Potentially be too Active for Major Snows The ridge on the west coast dictates that the next series of disturbances approaching the east coast will be able to amplify into major storms, however, what makes this a very high stakes pattern is that there is not much space between each one. Thus if anything is "off" with respect to a given system's ability to produce a major snowfall on the east coast, then it may have a ripple effect in that it may only serve to interfere with subsequent storm threats, thereafter. The first such system is an amplifying ocean storm that will make its closes pass to the region on Friday. The current consensus strongly favors the western ridge not being quite amplified enough for this system to have a major impact on the region. This is in large part due to a northern stream disturbance compressing the northern portion of the ridge just enough to preclude a major strike from this system across region, as noted in the annotation above. However, a less likely scenario is that the ridge manages to protrude further into Alaska downstream from this disturbance. This would allow the system to amplify slightly more and since its exit would be blocked by a western atlantic ridge to the north, it could retrograde close enough to impact at least the eastern portion of southern New England

The reason I gave in my writeup is that just as the N stream energy begins to stream in, that N Stream SW way up over the igloos begins to compress the n edge of the PNA ridge, then the stream interaction stops and it goes out to sea. The ICON yesterday was an example of what happens if that ridging could still protrude up into AK. JMHO.

9" of snow at mid season where I live is brutal

No, that is very fair. My guess is that the pattern breaks down toward month's end, maybe last week. Well, that is our right as hobbyists....I feel it amplifies the disappointment.

Nah, I'm fine...he's just breaking balls, which is how to keep sane right now as a weenie. I apologize for the other night....I was beat and should have just let that go.

Anyone under the impression that Friday or Monday has a reasonable chance to be major is deluding themselves...that's just fact. Is what it is. Not saying winter is over.

I don't understand what is unreasonable about my post above. You confirmed the first two are whiffs or at least nothing major......so we wait until later in the month before the pattern begins to break down. Stop me when I strayed from what you just said. Maybe we have time for one major system before the pattern begins to change, in addition to a potential phase changer?

It all looks fine as is according to some...dog shit buried for as far as the eye can see.

I don't think he would have cared if at the end of it, you check the scoreboard and nothing changes.

Wouldn't he have wanted it to snow?

The longwave pattern is just off for us this season (aside from that 15 mile wide band, epic there)....one thing I have noticed all season...December and continues into January even during a new pattern, is that everything amplifies off shore and crushes the maratimes.

The realistic hope is a phase change deal later in the month as the pattern breaks down. Negative things happen in life....deluding is just as harmful as being a debbie.

No. Its just desperation because we know its ruining Monday.

I'm not sure the emboldened is changing....just the first part has.

My point is that negative NAO pattern was negated by record RNA, but more often than not, I'm still scoring more than 2" in a pattern like that during a la nina. I mean, I can also say that early January wasn't "shit"..its all subjective.

But I did not say "we", so I can argue with that. I'm speaking from my own persepective

Relative to the pattern. 9/10 times that NAO block in December produces.