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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    @ORH_wxmanand @Typhoon Tiphave been all over that.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strictly in terms of snowfall? Well, it will probably be closer to normal, so lots...but that doesn't mean that 1956 won't end up being a decent analog synoptically speaking. We could play out latter January into February 2015 again and we probably don't pull off 100" in 30 days. That isn't how analogs work.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm just having some fun with the bravado talk...as I have said before, I could easily see the end of the season failing to produce much, I just have reason to believe that it will be decent snowfall wise. And that isn't out of bias, as some people imply. Ironically enough, the whole pig-headed persistence mindset is a dead-ringer for a bias (not directed at anyone specifically).
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not in February, no...but we don't need a 50" March to validate it as a viable analog.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    One would think-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's how I have been envisioning late Feb/March. Gradient to blocky...
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its on... just a guess. Ride gradient for awhile until the block forms in March.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it's been obvious for awhile. I highlighted the 20-23rd window as the next viable threat in my Thursday night blog....phase change signal.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    As much as I think that's a viable outcome, I need to see consistency, especially from the main runs..18z always does that shit. Don't be shocked to see 00z less enthusiastic.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sell PNA, buy NAO.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes...agreed on all accounts.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    -NAO is easier to snow then +NAO...especially when you have energy constantly dumping out west.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one expects the Pacific to change. There is a shot that the arctic does.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The current state of Nino 1.2 seldom means much with respect to the longer term outlook because it's so unstable. But if anything, I like that its opposite of 2025 because that was the most powerful cannonical el nino in record. I want a modoki.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    3/10/56
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    11-12 was la nina, not neutral.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, and 86-87
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't expect this to be as consistently cold.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    JB does that for clicks....the other dude is a hack.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's possible, but unlikely...best case scenario. March '18 was a great example of a productive RNA/NAO pattern.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm watching that 20-23 window for some sort of phase change event.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is a more valid concern than suppression should a neg NAO block develop in tandem with the persistent RNA pattern is deconstructive interference from a shearing flow, but cross that bridge...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    RNA/-NAO is not a mid atl pattern. Not saying they won't see some snow, but it's not the type of pattern in which I generally fear suppression.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    To be fair, this season has made many look bad.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its tough to remind people of this during the winter of Murphy's law, but RNA/-NAO can be glorious when the energy doesn't dig to baja. Keep rifling PAC waves into a block. I do agree that if we are spinning our wheels first week of March, then its over.
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