40/70 Benchmark

Phasing hardly ever send up as proficient or fast as originally modeled...been saying that.

Yea, guidance often over sells the moisture east of mid level lows...IE they overestimate precip from low level fronto, and drastrically underassess precip attributable to mid level fronto.

Yea, I agree with Fisher on the cape track.

Sure...I just mean as currently modeled.

I can't see it being much further se than rt 128...

I think I still may....it will be around my area.

Yea, get the mid level synoptics se, and okay....

Yea, I hate those uber-sensitive bum teeth.....

I'd sell those amounts of over a foot in SNE on the GFS....not happening east of mid level centers.

GEM and GFS are actually in pretty good agreement on where the gradient may end up.

Going back?

Get this thing to hook and ladder out under SNE, and I'll probably be looking for a new job

None...out the window

I'll do therapy sessions with clients with no pants

Everything is today.

Yes. In the back of my grape, I am holding out hope for a hook and ladder deal for NE.

I think this is going to be a rt 128 storm.

06z GFS has one of the more extreme gradients I have seen around SNE lol That would be a trip

TBH, it would be the best thing that has happened this winter for me....quite literally.

Good to see some offshore members.

You're on fire this AM lol

His point was that it really didn't influence snowfall amounts that much....but that doesn't mean that there weren't significant changes.

DT was saying that to me on twitter last night....I mentioned that 00z GEFS trended well east, and he said they didn't change much. I was like the mean went from Boston to the Benchmark lol

Yea, you were better with the time frame...awesome. I was off by a few days last fall and had the RNA to PNA handoff backwards. January Analogs: 1955, 1956, 1971, 1996, 2006 (x3), 2001, 2018, 2012, 1989, 1965, 1976 "There is a slight chance of a KU magnitude, Archambault type east coast snowfall between approximately December 28th and January 11th, as any residual high latitude blocking erodes and heights lower in the vicinity of Alaska and western Canada. Heights will also lower in the western US as the aleutian ridge retrogrades into the pacific and a sustained RNA accompanies the development of an active, zonal pacific storm track.