40/70 Benchmark
-
Posts
78,513 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
-
I'd be absolutely stunned if we went back well above normal to begin March. But we'll see...I originally thought that way about early January, too. I think there is more evidence to suggest otherwise, this time. We'll see.
-
I have had two of those in mind...Dec 2007 and warmer version of Jan/Feb '94 that acts as a segue into more blocky regime.
-
Correct!!!!
-
Does the 50mb PV realize the PNA is negative? Maybe we can send a screenshot of a Pacific Homvoller diagram from a 38yo virgin in Tennessee?
-
You had me at rectal glue...
-
Not a matter of "if" this year...mistake.
-
You tried to warn him...he porked.
-
I honestly still think I could hit the low end of my 60-70" forecast range IMBY. Would need some luck, of course...but possible if things break right. Don't get me wrong, I'm not holding my breath, but...
-
93-94 type pattern.
-
Lol 1956
-
It showed a huge snow event yesterday at 18z, and I pointed out how it was par for the 18z course.
-
40-50% chance of above normal....oh nooooo
-
Honestly, I just like it bc its faster to type than -PNA.
-
Not shocked.
-
You realize that this is a New England thread, right?
-
I'm also not sure what the RNA has to do with the SSW...they aren't mutually exclusive. Again, March 2018 was RNA...as was many of SNE's most prolific patterns.
-
He is one of the ones in CT with like 5" on the season who has become immune to logic as means of self preservation.
-
You must have missed this one.
-
I don't like this SSW as much as that one...JMO. I also think that the RNA will be more prevalent.
-
My point is, we would replicate 1956 synoptically speaking and probably end up with less snowfall...so yea, from strictly a snowfall standpoint, its probably wise to take the under on March 1956...that said, soon or later we are going to stop paying for 2025 and that luck with change. More likely next December, but possibly next month.
-
@ORH_wxmanand @Typhoon Tiphave been all over that.
-
Strictly in terms of snowfall? Well, it will probably be closer to normal, so lots...but that doesn't mean that 1956 won't end up being a decent analog synoptically speaking. We could play out latter January into February 2015 again and we probably don't pull off 100" in 30 days. That isn't how analogs work.
-
I'm just having some fun with the bravado talk...as I have said before, I could easily see the end of the season failing to produce much, I just have reason to believe that it will be decent snowfall wise. And that isn't out of bias, as some people imply. Ironically enough, the whole pig-headed persistence mindset is a dead-ringer for a bias (not directed at anyone specifically).
-
Not in February, no...but we don't need a 50" March to validate it as a viable analog.
-
One would think-
