40/70 Benchmark

I am writing now....

You probably aren't the only one after the NAM run

I don't know of anyone who accurately predicted the QPF in those two events at any type of lead.....except for you, I guess.

Its like the last two minutes of the BUF/KC game.

I'll bet you would have called BS on the QPF in December 14, 1992 and March 31. 1997, too.

Yea, this autopilot mode of defaulting to traditional biases needs to be checked IMO. These are pretty exceptional circumstances.

This.

I understand what you are saying about the QPF bias, but its incumbent on the forecaster/hobbyists to utilize discretion in determining when a bias may or may not be at play....because automatically assuming that is the case, regardless of the circumstances, is also a bias in and of itself. In this case, we have an exotically deepening system of SOUTHERN STREAM origin availing of N Stream insert over the gulf stream. If that isn't enough to tip the scales in favor of more QPF, the EURO supports it 100%. You need to be careful about utilizing defense mechanisms under the guise of recognition of a model's perceived "bias" to suite the interests of your back yard.

What bias? It corrected towards a solution that most feel makes sense, which is also supported by the best guidance.

I disagree with this. Its more reality than eye candy...get use to this output. I think people are just in the habit of adding that caveat as a defense mechanism.

As I have been saying to WOR....."Don't worry....be Happy"....

I honestly think the GFS and UK would be better for me, but I don't think it matters for you...you will have better low level lift.

Yea, I'm resigned to being between bands, as usual. CT will get deformation.

NAM looks just like EURO.

All trends at this point are crucial, including the NAM.

I'll take the over on 6" there.

Nice first sign with respect to 12z.

Powder

Totally agree.

Especially if Easton isn't within the area that gets hammered-

Well, we're 1/3 of the way home!

As much as its cool to see the drifting and low vis, it kills the OCD part of me not having high confidence in measurements...I hate the wind for that reason.

East as in further east than the GFS? That would be pretty stunning to me...

Harv had coastal flooding as the only moderate impact, as opposed to everything as being high.

I honestly think the deformation would still get pretty far west even in the east camp