40/70 Benchmark

Looks accurate for Merrimack valley..it has Lowell at 29", and I'm 28.5".

I get range and all, but I think its right.

Not a big deal, but usually the fact that its a New England sub forum gives adequate context to get a pretty good idea of the prevailing perspective lol

Exactly.

I'd take that considering how this season has gone. I'll take my chances with some se ridging. The last thing I want is another SE MA pattern.

No, its just allows systems to track further in than many would want. I'm not saying that is what happens or what guidance shows....just speaking theoretically.

I'd rather not rely in the ridge extending through the north pole.

EPO ridging without the PNA is a "let me the fu*k out" pattern here....especially late in the season.

Well, it is bad if its more near the EPO domain because its probably more of a NNE pattern, with cold between rainers. That was 2018-2019. I know by "bad" you mean warm, but to me, bad is cold-rain-cold-rain.

I think this is a more accurate representation inland, though probably too conservative inside of I 495 with that high, as NARCAN tends to be. General 6-10" from pike points N, and 3-6" from I 84 to the pike.

Two "monster" references in one post from you...not a bad omen.

About a 10-spot ....that would honestly be more impressive than the 12" blizzard here because it would probably fall over a shorter duration.

Yea, I could def see an abrupt end to it all at some point in March....Kev and I were talking about that a couple of days ago.

Remember all of those generic, cookie-cutter, blowtorch ratter winter outlooks? This is why I knew this winter wouldn't be like that (shit interior SNE/CNE snow luck not withstanding), just as I knew 2017-2018 winter wouldn't. Not all la ninas are the same....some are stronger, some are weaker, some are more modoki, some or more east based, some are in the middle.....some are strongly coupled, some less coupled. It was always apparent that this would be near the threshold of weak-moderate, well coupled on average (yes, some variation) and biased somewhat to the east. Anyone with this insight and unlimited access to the data would not have forecast a generic la nina season. Period-

John, I have noticed that all of the government agencies take a very lazy approach to la nina...especially with respect to longer lead times. Its always base-state, generic la nina climo....cold nw, warm SE, blah, blah. I understand that we don't have big blocking, so there is a risk, as Scott points out so diligently and incessantly, but I think they need to be a little more open minded with respect to these ENSO climo conceptualizations.

I didn't mention it in my January update, but I think la nina will end up a bit more eastern biased than even I had forecast, so that probably did play a role in shifting the focus more later in the winter as opposed to December....this is probably part of the reason why I mixed up December and January. That was a very good point George, but its something I will touch upon more after the season ends, rather than in season. I tend to focus on ENSO more before and after the season, as opposed to during.

Hopefully stormier in CNE, as it was pretty dry north of the pike.

Yea, I never had an issue with some strong gusts around 1K and near the coast...the bet was that I would lose power.

Let me know when I can collect from you and Noyes.

Stay safe

I never pay any attention to wind threats....about once a decade they catch my attention.

Yea.....if that works out, then January just replaces December and I still have a shot to get to my interior totals....need the se areas to run into some tough luck, though. lol

Tried to tell him...unfortunately for him, I whiffed on December, the time he likes.

I'd be fine with that, too, since CJ land was ground zero then.

They have actually gotten crushed synoptically speaking this season....MLK, and now this.