40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Yea, my only pause in a less than MH LF was it gaining too much latitude, but that is by the boards.
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Get that PD 1 looking monstrosity out of the way now.
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That was contingent on a further north track. The more southern LF changes things because it doesn't encounter the hostile conditions prior to LF.
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Wow....that is crazy. Its like a giant swimming pool. I can't believe that its that shallow...
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High solar flux isn't always a death knell for winter...2013-2014 was high solar. There are just so many factors.....
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Yea, this is what I was referring to when I suggested that the eruption could lead to a warmer SH strat this winter.
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The line are to delineate between more and less preferred regions for landfall, and the arrow adds emphasis.
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https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html
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Here is my best guess as of now.....incredibly tough call and low confidence. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-poised-to-pose-major.html
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An early ERC could help explain some of the structural issues....
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Once these things undergo RI, its often even under modeled, so it can easily catch up. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in short term trends yet....but the dry air entrainment this far south maybe something to keep in mind for once it gets further north.
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Isn't it ironic that a weaker initial system and longer term track to the east is "bad" for once....
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I would still strongly hedge that it will. its being delayed....maybe it means a cat 3 peak, as opposed to 4....
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Yea, nobody knows, really.
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If there were ever a season to pull that off....
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Probably why we are still waiting for the EW to close off....its slowed things down some.
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Just making the same obs and drawing the same conclusions.
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Too many folks are approaching this like its a slam dunk, PV on roids season.
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That's the point; nobody is sure of anything with respect to the eruption, aside from its influence in the S HEM.
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Yea, that's what I meant.....I think I recall ECMWF admitting that the last round of upgrades prioritized the mid latitudes at the expanse of the tropics.
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GFS has closed the cap, to a degree, on the EURO IMHO.
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Looking at just how far west some these runs are, sure....it just depends on how close it gets to the west coast of FL. I shouldn't have initially been so dismissive before viewing all of the AM suite.
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I'm not sure Hunga Tonga doesn't trend the polar strat warmer in the N HEM.
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If anything, a system crawling has more time to build the fetch and then you add excessive freshwater flooding from 20"+ RF.
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Spare Florida of major wind damage, which isn't the primary threat, anyway.
