40/70 Benchmark

That is the look I have going into January...should get some PNA after the new year

Eric Fisher is probably fondling the OP 12z GFS on Twitter

Doesn't look as though the December +NAO/AO correlation is going to work out this year, but no correlation is perfect...and you did say it was stronger in warm ENSO years.

I kind of feel like we get the big block, then during the relaxation, it becomes a gradient pattern with a ton of cold in Canada, before the big block redevelops. Then maybe team it with some PNA love in January for the big sha-bang before the real thaw.

Yea, no guarantees it translates to a lot of snow.

Posting about it is one thing, believing is another. Clear a modeled blizzard will evoke more commentary than a mild, benign pattern.

More to it than ENSO....this year has more in favor of blocking.

Maybe the block trends somewhat weaker, sure....but I wouldn't expect it to disappear.

This is all backed by the tropics, though....not sure what last season has to do with it.

Given that the MJO is dying in phase 8 and we have a decaying la nina pretty heavily biased to the east right now, the default forcing will want to shift near the dateline. I find it hard to believe that this pattern doesn't reload following any relaxations later this month.

I'd say the same thing if they showed a Blizz of '78 redux...the odds of deterministic OP runs nailing the evolution of that block are pretty remote...just stick with ensembles.

Winter 2022-2023 Looks to Begin on Schedule & Have Staying Power December to Turn More Wintery It was was asserted in the 9th annual Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook, released on November 10th, that the month of December would begin relatively mild before gradually turning colder and eventually more snowy. And this appears very much on track to come to fruition for a variety of different reasons. Not the least of which is consistent agreement amongst out most skilled ensemble guidance. Ensemble Consensus Bolsters Forecast Confidence Obviously consistent agreement of our most reliable guidance is one of the more coveted aspects of forecaster confidence, and we surely have this. Note the the agreement between two of the more skilled models on the evolution of the pattern change, as two discrete disturbances act to transfer energy poleward. The first one occurring on Wednesday to close out the month of November, which supplies tomorrow's mild and gusty rain showers: ECMWF Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: And the next one will be a rain maker on Sunday: ECMWF Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: The similarity to the December forecast composite is rather striking at this point: However, by this point, we are beginning to see the NAO block materialize perhaps even a bit more rapidly than implied by the seasonal outlook. This entails perhaps a slightly colder look relatively to the forecast composite: But it remains to be seen how extensive any respite is during the holiday period. By the time we approach mid December, the block matures and there is a much colder regime in place across the eastern US and even down into the mid Atlantic. ECMWF Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: As the block continues to mature and attenuate towards mid month, a potential relaxation of the predominate RNA state due to a shift in tropical forcing may provide the region with the opportunity for its first major winter storm. It is also this reconfiguration of tropical forcing that is lending additional support to the model consensus with respect to the impending NAO block. Tropical Forcing Supportive of Model Consensus Currently the MJO is crossing from phase 7 into phase 8: ECMWF: GFS: The consensus forecast, as illustrated above, is for it to waken into obscurity though the early portion of the month of December. This makes sense, since phase 7 of the MJO during a la nina favors somewhat of a southeast ridge feature, similar to the initial early December pattern and aforementioned monthly forecast composite: And how phase 8 during a la nina in the month of December resembles the new pattern that is so highly agreed upon by the ensemble consensus. The shift in forcing towards the dateline is evident on the Homvoller diagram, pictured below. This displacement towards the central Pacific is consistent with the east-based la nina data set. This aligns with the current trends for la nina to both begin to decay and shift further to the east, with the eastern flank of region 1.2 a very impressive -1.7 departures as of 11/23. 02NOV2022 19.6-1.8 24.0-1.1 25.7-1.1 27.6-1.0 09NOV2022 20.1-1.4 24.2-0.9 25.8-1.0 27.8-0.9 16NOV2022 20.5-1.3 24.2-0.9 25.9-0.8 27.7-0.9 23NOV2022 20.3-1.7 24.3-0.8 25.9-0.8 27.7-0.9 Note the contrast to the west based la nina data set, which focuses ascent over Indonesia and descent over the dateline region: This is crucial because once the MJO waves decays, the base state forcing will reside over the central Pacific, which should render blocking over the polar domain remarkably resilient following any reloading periods. This may also act to induce periods of more poleward ridging over the western US, or at least a relaxation of the prevalent RNA, which would couple with the polar blocking to increase the magnitude of storm chances and extend said chances further to the south to include the mid Atlantic. This potential relaxation of the RNA is hinted at among the European teleconnector projection, which also implies a period of increased storm potential after approximately December 10th, due to mass flux with the Pacific domain. The arctic domain, while less emphatic regarding major storm potential, does strongly imply the arrival of the sustained colder period. Confidence of an eventual recovery following any relaxation of said high latitude blocking during the month of December and into January is also supported by an overall warmer than average polar stratosphere: And the strong tendency for sustained blocking during the first half of the winter seasons following substantial southern stratospheric warmings, as observed this year. Buckle up because mother nature is feeling festive-

I wouldn't give it much thought unless ensemble consensus begins consistently flagging that potential.

Winter 2022-2023 Looks to Begin on Schedule & Have Staying Power | Eastern Mass Weather

Anyway, my data streams are up and running, so just a waiting game for the first system of note, which should arrive shortly after the 10th IMO.

But of course its cool that I'm male...just worried about the contour of my pecs with the advance of middle age

Do you think it would be a good idea if I took my clothes off?

Could be a Tolland, CT, YBY thing, too

I'm not as worried about that given the state of the Pacific..its hard to screw up an RNA/neg NAO regime from the perspective of a SNE winter enthusiast.

I remember I was commuting to Devens back in Jan 2003, as my reserve unit was training to deploy after being mobilzed. Wilmington was pretty much on the right side of things, with about a foot of concrete, but over in Ayer, it was about 18" of powder. I drove down to NC and we picked up a guy in PVD on the way down and it was just a barren wasteland hahaha.

I had that one in mind lol I think where I am now made out better than Wilmington did....I remember even the next town over, in Billerica, had a couple of more inches of paste than I did.

I was thinking like a January 2003 vibe when I wrote up the early season portion of the outlook.

That was my early season call, too. Hopefully more like a I495 thing, and not a Berkshires thing.

I'd probably end up having DCF enter my life after destroying all of the kids toys...do irreparable damage to therapy clients, the whole works.

You would think at some point that I am going to catch a break, but I guess I have been paying for March 2018.