40/70 Benchmark

Yes. There is no reason why we can't have all hell break loose to send us into the holiday....but the question is where will hell break loose, and will it be hell perceived through our lens, or the collective one of the masses?? Tic, toc...

If not, there will be a massacre on Hall Street.

Gotacha. I figured that...don't mind the tone. Just frustrated...I know you don't make shit up, obviously.

I must have missed those, but then again, I am focusing on major signals....so I would gloss over the random whale ripples that could drop an inch or two.

Friday is rain....which has been clear to me since Sunday. Then we have the pre Xmas event and then probably one more major threat between Xmas and New Year's.....so while everything looks awesome from a large-scale synoptics stand- point, the devil is in the details. And that devil really needs to stop screaming up the collective tail pipe of eastern New England free of lube, or else this festive holiday appeal is going to remain at H5 and pass us by at the surface. Simple as that-

I really appreciate the kind words, as it is that, in addition to the whole winter experience makes all of the time worth it. I def. do not have the understanding of the background physics that drive the atmosphere like they, along with other degreed mets do, but I have tried to compensate for that with really rigorous research to get a feel for climo and general understanding of synoptics.

That system is all we have before Xmas. I'm not sure where Scott sees another pre Xmas threat, but that's it. I maybe about 4 days off from punting December. I thought the coast would struggle this month, but I didn't expect to be virtually shut out clear back to near ORH. I'm at the point where I need more than a hr 270 H5 plot make me feel as though the luck is going to change anytime before the ball drops.

The way my luck is going, you'll get it.

Maybe I should head to the 350' hill down the street on Friday in search of cat paws

I won't be suprised if we don't really end up with much in December and still end up with a damn good season.

People need to understand why seasons like 2010-2011 are top 5-10 seasons...you don't get that from just a pretty H5 pic in the seasonal mean. That is requisite, sure....but you also need the snow gods to give you a reach around, which is pretty difficult to predict. The pretty H5 pic means you bought mother nature dinner, which makes it more likely that she puts out, but blue balls are always on the table.

First of all, you don't need 2 consecutive months of a great pattern to have an "epic" season...one or two signature events does the track. No one should have expected epic snowfall totals this season. That is your problem, not the folks distributing data.

I have a big thaw, yes, but I also have all hell breaking loose in January....very chaotic month with a great deal of flux.

Well, I'm fretting because I have bare ground after about 33 miles of favorable H5 images, but need to remember that the payoff is often delayed with these NAO patterns. They are often very frustrating on the front end. I have been saying this and it's part of the reason, in addition to the RNA, why my outlook was relatively conservative in December compared to many others.

Lord, I wish la nina would fu&* off.

If I make it to xmas with bare ground, I am going to end up in prison for strangling the next SOB who posts a day 10 -NAO chart.

Euro is slow to get the secondary going.....sucks for WOR.

The frustration is definitely propagating downward from my grape to the keyboard

"Dynamics should suffice"

The ensemble approach worked out very well at a very long lead with respect to this system....look how congruent my initial assessment from last Friday (when people were crying about suppressed OPs) and today's first call are:

I told Will, I am over Friday...I processed it yesterday when I melted. No use carrying on all week and ruining threads. Good luck out west.

On the Blog I am...you clowns see my stream of consciousness, which gets ugly.

Major-Long Duration Winter Storm Likely for the Deep Interior Friday-Saturday Elevations favored The first major winter storm of the season look to arrive early on Friday, and as advertised in last week's initial threat assessment, it looks to be a mixed bag that promises to present many precipitation type issues across the region The Synoptic Situation: Deep low pressure will be begin to encounter the negative NAO block currently in place, as it moves northeast through the plains on Wednesday. Ordinarily, a storm system on the trajectory in the plains would mean a mild rainstorm for most of New England, however, it will ultimately succumb to resistance from the block and redevelop to the east. This is what will allow a portion of the area to still experience a significant snowfall. But notice that while the block ultimately does win the battle, it is not before the powerful primary closed low in the in midwest has forced the block to cede just enough ground the system to make it all the way north into the Great Lakes. This is why it is important to remember that it is the synoptic scale nuances that dictate the details of a storm, not necessarily the mode of large scale index, as evidenced by the fact that the NAO remains quite negative despite the small cessation of ground that proves crucial to the forecast. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Precipitation should begin as snow anywhere roughly outside of I495 and off of the south coast after midnight early Friday morning. However, the aforementioned stronger and more resilient primary low results in a stronger southwest flow aloft for a longer duration of time that ultimately scours out the antecedent cold more efficiently, and allows the secondary to track closer to the coast, which creates an easterly fetch into the lower levels of the atmosphere. Given the fact that sea surface temperatures this early in the season are near 50 degrees, this renders it impossible for any initial snowfall to last very long on the coastal plain of southern New England. Thus the precipitation will rapidly transition to sleet and then rain anywhere east of the Worcester hills early Friday morning, so that by midday Friday, only the hills of Worcester county, northwestern Connecticut and the Berkshires are snowing heavily. While it may continue to snow at some valley locations of western mass during Friday afternoon, it will likely struggle to accumulate as efficiently as locales at higher elevations above approximately 700', where power outages will be possible across the Berkshires, northern Worcester hills and Monadnocks of southern New Hampshire. Rain may begin to change back to snowfall on early Saturday morning from west to east, as the secondary low pressure areas passes the region. And the midlevel low begins to redevelop off of the coast. Had the block not eroded as much and allowed the primary to penetrate as high up in latitude as it did, this mid level redevelopment could have limited the change to rain, but it still may aid in a period of snow showers on Saturday afternoon all of the way to the coast before precipitation tapers off entirely. First Call: Initial Threat Assessment Issued on Friday, December 9 at 12pm: Final call will be issued on Thursday-

First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/12/major-long-duration-winter-storm-likely.html Final on Thursday-