40/70 Benchmark

Awesome....see a couple of late posts and expect maybe a fun run for the 14th, and it's a west coast circle jerk.

It's not going to cut. The risk is mid Atl special. That one misses and this season is in trouble.

Mid Month Winter Mayhem Potential Looms Multiple Winter Storm Threats on Horizon It was discussed last week how changes in the tropical Pacific would lead to a reprieve from the la nina like regime and lead to a much more active winter pattern across the area. Current long range guidance continues to carry a rather emphatic three-pronged signal that is centered on mid month. The first system for next Monday looks to pass out to sea, as it does no look to have enough room to amplify in time given the lack of ridging over the western US and the significant confluence in place over se Canada behind this week's rainfall. European Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: The second system looks to make its closest pass Friday, January 13. And while it does pose more of a threat than the first system given some slight ridging in the vicinity of the Rocky mountains: European Ensemble Mean: Said ridging is very modest and still may not be quite strong enough to allow the system to amplify enough for a major strike of the area, especially with no apparent downstream low southeast of the Canadian Maritimes to slow downt he flow (50/50 low). GFS Ensemble Mean: But its the third threat that has been consistently modeled on guidance to threaten the region on or around Saturday, January 14th that poses the largest threat given a more significant PNA ridge out to the west to allow for more amplification. European Ensemble Mean: GFS Ensemble Mean: Stay tuned to forecasts over the course of the next week.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/mid-month-winter-mayhem-potential.html

That said, I also think its BS to just summarily dismiss what he is saying...that is as bad as the trollling. Just contest the point.

Yea, I was about to post...its clearly not a frigid pattern, but that doesn't mean it wont be a snowy one....This is January, not April or November. I'll take my chances with that at peak climo over an arctic PV doing lake effect chases with @BuffaloWeather

That SPV extension was showing on ensembles last week, as I referenced it the blog update on Friday as the reason this potential is high end.

Butta' Face...that's the term for that girl

She didn't reside in Fox Hall circa December 1992, did she?

43.5 and shocked in.

Ceiling this month has always been el nino style HECS. Now, obviously ceilings often aren't reached, but I think we're due.

My window from early Novie was 1/6 to 1/20 to watch for a doozy....let's see how ot plays out. If that fails, then I will be worried.

Let me begin by stating I haven't checked long range ensembles yet...but I recall Will saying yesterday that there wasn't a big se ridge..

Not that it matters, but I don't think it would rain back that far west in reality...it doesn't tuck enough to induce due east flow.

Rehearsal of my synoptic gas chamber aside, it's nice to see a big one pop on an op inside of a week.

I'd literally quit.

...than do without your dopamine drip?

Not too worried at this point.

I wish something would bite, other than this winter.

This would be five consecutive well below average here, so...getting there.

Or doggie poo cores in NE CT.

Well, I can't control that....only deal with data that I can access. Probably....

I get that it may not be as big a drive of the pattern as it could be if centered further north, but its a lot closer to a modoki like el nino look (seen below) than some to the crappy looks.

That still looks much more like a nice forcing regime than a warm one.