40/70 Benchmark

EPS trend was for slightly weaker blocking, which allowed for closer track...hopefully that doesn't continue, but not too worried....at least for my locale.

EPS:

Key take away for me is emergent continuity on a very slow moving tempest early to mid week...this run had less separation between the N and S steam (very subtle southern kink) components than 12z due to better PNA ridging, so they phased sooner..LARGEST run of the week will be 00z Saturday, when discrete waves come ashore for optimal data ingest....get some rest while you can.

I am willing to bet that thermals would also be less of an issue if you save the best dynamics for closest approach to the region, too...you can see in the Kutchera map that there is a pretty identifiable dependence on elevations....has the "up and in" look. That would be less of an issue if you delayed the H5 closure and potential capture. LBSW exacerbates thermal issues and causes some funky crap in the SGZ, but those are issues for a much closer range.

Dude, wife and kids are with fam over seas for several weeks right now, so let me know if you head up this way.

I get that there is still plenty of QPF for SNE that run....but you are always playing with fire when things close off/occlude too soon....again, I realize this is one day 7-8 OP run....speaking more from a theoretical sense.

I'm not as worried about the track, or how much it hugs at this point....what is more important from a SNE perspective over the next several days is delaying that H5 capture that results in LBSW. I think that is what becomes more set in stone than the exact track. I feel like ensembles will do just that. I'm feeling better about settling on this date/wave is "the one"....aligns well with the 1956 analog. People are going to weenie me for that...they have been all season and probably will right up until it happens. Did the same shit leading into March 2018, Jan 2016, and Jan 2015...That's fine-

It found it for the southeastern third of SNE, that run-

Just opining on what I believe will actually happen as others have also been doing....at the end of the day, that is what people care about.

Hopefully the ENS are more progressive.

Its manufacturing failure for 3/14-15

Something tells me you're more likely to see 3-4 shots/hr rates of hard alcohol in Westerly next weekend...you'll probably need it to drown out the cirrus in advance of the next batch of precip type issues mid week, next week.

Hopefully not faking it like the rest of your "storms" this year.

We are probably going to get one bomb out of all of this...and maybe one other more moderate ordeal. Looking like the second one is the larger ticket, at this point. 1956....

You may slowly be evolving into another timeout.

EPS looks like ass.

Ha....better shot of Harv coming out of retirement to coanchor with George.

Well, I said last night that I wanted to see this trend reverse today, and that's what has happened. Wouldn't have felt good if it looked like shit approaching 4 days.

Wouldn't have expected that at this range...but the model does blow

Yea, that's that's atmospheric road-head along I-95...and every other major SNE thoroughfare for that matter.

It's not uncommon for a major signal to fade in the medium range only return with a vengeance, but I'm just leery of the seasonal trend with respect to western heights. Been impossible to reverse once it sets in...otherwise, I would still favor this period a something very noteworthy.

I didn't see that post. But you've done that before and we have his same argument. Anyway. Sorry for derailing

I love the guy from the epicenter of the KU orgy last several years telling everyone else how they are due for less snow. Apparently I need to a full decade without approaching normal...maybe sacrsrice a few showshovels to the oes gods.