40/70 Benchmark

Totally agree that CC has lended itself to more dichotomous seasons in terms of snowfall.

Good point. I second thought, I will leave it on the table under any ENSO conditions.

I figured that card would get pulled, but you weren't the one I expected to pull it. Okay...yea, new world...climate change. I now average 40". Take the bet? 63" or greater IMBY next season. Given how much the climate has changed, its easy pickn's for you.

I am honest to god pulling for a fast termination of the cold....it doesn't look too particularly likely to deliver, and even if it did, the most likely period is when I'll be tending to the wife and newborn in the hospital. Hard pass.

I would pull it, at that point....but I would be willing to offer it now. Well, anyway, like I said....mathwise, you are right, but there is a reason you won't take the bet lol

I have stopped even looking....aside from what I need to do to maintain the blog, but I am de-invested.

I'm sure in the federal court of mathematics, you are correct....but like I said, I am very comfortable betting against such an occurrence. Put your money where your calculator is. I am a man of my word...pickles would tell you that. I always pay up...

If you are viewing it in a vacuum through shear mathematical probability, than you are correct.......but given how I feel the next warm ENSO event will evolve, and the fact that I have never gone six consecutive well below average snowfall seasons in well over 50 years of data, I feel more confident than 50/50.

Dec 2019....

I'll bet you $200 right now that I finish with more than 63" next season.

I'm fine with ratting the rest of the way...just increases confidence in a nice year, next season. No way am I going 6 consecutive well below average snowfall seasons, expecially in a warm ENSO following a triple dip cold. I would bet anyone a large sum of money.

His is kind of like my first outlook in 2014-2015....I nailed it sensible weatherwise, but missed the polar fields. This is with respect to the season to date and especially December. The aggregate DM period very well may finish +AO/NAO.

I actually had 28.5" in that....just saw an old facebook memory.

Looks like raindance has the best outlook IMO....had like +5 along the east coast and explicitly mentioned that storms in the east would lack cold air. Kind of right for the wrong reason with respect to December, though, as he had a +AO/NAO. I think we can put to rest that silly accustion about me copying his outlooks, though.

GEM has a system 2/1 and EURO 2/5.....at this point, don't expect anything.

Do you mean just in terms of snowfall? The December pattern was pretty good this year.....we just whiffed. That's what makes it tricky....It wasn't like 12/98, 12/99, 12/01 or 12/11.

Gotta admit, this may very well be a rat. I'm starting to lean that way more with each passing week. Although the mean composite was decent, I had years like 2001 and 1998 double weighted due to how good of a match they were to 2022. 2011 was in there, but not double weighted.... May need to reevaluate how I interpret those sensible weather analogs...was my first time using it, so I just went with the mean composite.

Here is the Final Call snowfall forecast map: Versus what actually accumulated: Snowfall amounts were slightly over forecast, as the initial area of lift was weaker than forecast, which resulted in less substantial snowfall than anticipated before the changeover to rainfall last night. The 2-5" forecast zone over the Berkshires, northern Worcester county hills and southern new Hampshire verified as 1-3". And the 1-3" area to the south verified as a trace to 1". Final Grade: C

Snowfall amounts were slightly over forecast last night, as the initial area of lift was weaker than forecast, which resulted in less substantial snowfall than anticipated before the changeover to rainfall last night. The 2-5" forecast zone over the Berkshires, northern Worcester county hills and southern new Hampshire verified as 1-3". And the 1-3" area to the south verified as a trace to 1". https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/wednesday-thursday-verification.html Grade that one a "C"...

I still have several inches....its high LE stuff, so some meat to it. Doesn't melt quickly. Its gone by about rt 128.

The only redeeming portion of January forecast was the activity....never dream it would be so warm.

I have 17" on the month, which is a hair above average, I think.

+.50" 19" on the season.

Hopefully it will be warm, rather than cold and dry.

I'm sick to death of trying to thread the fuckin& needles....like 3 months of it. I just want to throw the thread at someone and stick the fuck!ing needle in my eyeball so I don't have to watch anymore.