40/70 Benchmark

Yea, that is the vibe I was trying to send off, too...not worried at all about suppression, but precip type will continue to be a pressing issue IMO. Difference being that we should ultimately have cold air to work with, so it won't be a non-starter.

No doubt.

I didn't say everything is going to plan at all. Funny being mocked for issuing updates from the guy who disappeared after his train derailed.

Active Pacific Jet Finally Poised to Subside Later in January More Wintery Pattern Delayed But Not Denied Thus far the month of January has not evolved as anticipated. Although the RNA that was so prevalent throughout the month of December has in fact abated as forecast due to more el nino like tropical forcing, it has been very mild with a notable dearth of snowfall across much of the northeast, regardless. This has been primarily due to a stronger than anticipated Pacific jet stream, which has eradicated the cold air supply across much of the continent. While this was expected to be a recurrent theme over the course of winter 2022-2023, it was not at all expected to be so prominent throughout the month of January and has led to a very mild first half of the month. However, there are signs that the active Pacific jet will relax over the course of the final third of the month. Mid Month Pattern Changes to Ensue There is a growing consensus among ling range ensemble guidance that the very active Pacific jet will finally begin to relax and allow the supply of cold air to be replenished, as a ridge develops in the vicinity of the west coast and aids in the delivery of said cold to the eastern US. The relaxation of the mild Pacific jet is also apparent in the ensemble forecast of the EPO index, with a notable descent evident in both the European: And GFS ensemble suites: This period also denotes the onset of the window of opportunity for significant winter storms across the region, which at least initially, look to be primarily Pacific driven. Neutral Signal from Tropics and Polar Domain While a there is likely to be a reoccurrence of the early season episode of high latitude blocking, at least to some degree, later this season, it is unlikely to occur during the month of January. Tropical forcing appears to remain relatively weak, as noted with respect to the low amplitude MJO wave passing out of phase 8 and through phases 1 and 2: And continued decay of the wave of el nino like regime that has been situated closer to the dateline during the majority of first half of the month of January. What his likely entails is a continuation of the current + PNA regime, as evidenced by the aforementioned west coast ridging apparent on long range guidance, with a possible stagnation towards the end of January, and essentially an inconsequential signal from the high latitudes. Given the lack of major high latitude blocking in conjunction with a progression towards modest MJO phase 2 wave progression, an inland track of low pressure areas, in addition to inherent coastal precipitation type issues, continues to be a risk factor moving forward. However, even in the absence of any major high latitude blocking at least through the duration of January, there does appear to be a tendency for the polar vortex to become more elongated towards the western Hemisphere. This may act to redistribute more of the global supply of cold back closer to home as January continues to age.

Well, I blew January....expected a +EPO winter, but I did not expect the PAC jet to own the month of January like it has. Still feel this winter will recovery....not be epic, but recover. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/01/active-pacific-jet-finally-poised-to.html

I think there a few on this site who really do.

I average about 63" per season....and am going to head into latter January with my largest event on the season being 1.5". Let that sink in...

Yes.

I'm ready for that, but don't "expect" it...

I would think we'd get a significant snowfall before the end of the month.

Yea, same here.

I was going to say that, but figured maybe it was just a snapshot.

Yes, the fact that the pattern didn't persist for a very long time played into our inability to capitalize, especially given the fact that we had to wait for the block to retrograde after initially being a bit too fat to the east.

Yea, same here....last 4 not including this season. I'm just talking about the worst of it.

I wouldn't be shocked to see a Feb 2021 type of evolution, though.

This is why I haven't kept ramming that down people's throats and have backed off......fact of the matter is, we are halfway through winter with just about zero snow and my big January idea was a whiff, regardless of whether its just delayed, etc. Gotta read the scoreboard...and the room and know when to just let things be for a while.

Your awful luck season was 2 years ago....mine was more last year.

The patterns haven't really been head fakes....aside from rushing the return of the good look in January. The head fakes have been more relative to individual storms going to crap.

I'm confident that this winter will turn the corner and won't end up as vile as it looks right now. I feel like I just messed the timing up. Not sure if you saw the parallels to Dec-Jan 2001-2002 that I made earlier, but its been a decent analog, thus far. I actually doubled up on that year in my forecast composite, but again...my timing was clearly off. Difference between this year and that year is that while we have had a +EPO overall, which was expected, there hasn't been a death star vortex camped out over AK like there was in 2001-2002. I'm pretty confident this will flip. I could see a latter January-Feb driven by PNA/poleward Aleutian ridging, with maybe a more el ninoish/blocky finish in March.

Yes. 1957, 1976, 1986, 2002 and 2014. I like 57, 86 and 2002 best because I don't think it will be weak. It should be a reasonably strong el nino that is not east-based and doesn't suck.

I am really excited for next year. I can't wait to start that thread on a cold, windy, and dry day in mid March.

Speed of the server isn't one of the qualities that I prioritize with respect to data....I get the impulsive D-drip from this site. I just want quality data with good graphics to go back and parse through when making the forecasts.

Tell it to try harder.

That was ++NAO and +PDO Dec.....but yea, it stunk. Just not a great match...