40/70 Benchmark

I'll admit this is something that I need to pay more attention to in season....when the winter goes the unsavory route, I tend to check out and not pay much attention, aside from brieg blog update cameos.

You should put something out next year...you have a ton to offer, John.

Trying to develop a conceptualization that adequately captures the complexity of the global atmosphere remains a fool's errand.

Human kind's throught process is still far too linear for seasonal forecasting....too many generic relationships, indexes and correlations are over simplified, which leads us astray.

Man, we have really just rolled snake eyes this year....uber NAO block in December....that interacts with the PV in such a manner that all of the energy phases west. +PNA January....that is biased west and off of the coast, so that a semi-permanent trough remains anchored along the west coast. -AO January.....that teams with a +NAO to focus all of the cold in Siberia like Jan 2002. Now Feb begins with a historic arctic blast that squashes the storm track, until it lifts out in time to rain. "Just a bit ironic....don't ya think"

I am pretty happy with how my December thoughts played out, dearth of snowfall be damned...and think I am on the right track for Feb. Unfortunately, all I got right in January was the active storm track....problem is it was like +8 instead of normal. Of course.....the shit part works out. Great-

I think the tropics have dictated that you take the under on amplification when the MJO is in the wheelhouse phases for eastern weenies, and the over when in the milder phases. That is the gist of my next blog.

Yes. Well stated.

And that was still a good winter...would have been epic had that one landed.

Yea, the return rate on nearly wire-to-wire winter seasons is just about non-existent, at least at this latitude.

Yes. My mistake....I initially worded that poorly.

It was around on the globe, yes....just not on this continent.

Well, that was going on in January.....the month had over 5" of precip with a +8 anomaly.

That is what I expected.....but the obscene warmth and utter lack of snow? Nope....I thought it would be around normal snowfall with maybe a hair above avg temps.

I know the pattern has had its issues with deep lows out west, etc....but 4" in most of CT? Wow...

The most amazing part about this winter is that it has pulled off this misery without a death vortex over AK....you look at most of the sensible weather comps that were this bad, and most had the pig. Nuts.

Only the model that has anything within the foreseeable future is the GEM. Really rather remarkable how the region has avoided snowfall this year with nothing short of surgical precision.

I have given up in the sense that I am not expecting anything...if something should present itself as imminent, then great.

Yea. I found myself pulling for Cincy at the end, and as much as I hated it, I couldn't complain about the call. I was just cursing out the player that did it.

How was it BS? I hated it, too, but that was a penalty and it wasn't close. Mahomes was like 3 steps out of bounds when he shoved him.

I agree we are in a -PDO multidecadal cycle, but we have had good el Nino seasons in those.

All I meant by wait til next year

I think even Brooklyn has give up with the day 12 ensemble charts lol. Everyone is beleaguered and beaten

Sure seems over to me, but apparently rev disagrees.