40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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@ORH_wxmanIs there something up with the Cornell climo site? Been having some troubles with it lately...its usually my go-to.
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Won't start this weekend, either.
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The last hurrah? Putting all the eggs in the Tuesday 3/14 basket
40/70 Benchmark replied to Ginx snewx's topic in New England
This is the one IMO....been clear Saturday was a corpse for a while now. That said, I do expect precip type issues for some..probably do some sort of an updated write up tomorrow. -
I don't mean for Saturday.
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12z EPS today was most impressive yet IMO...intensified signal.
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Yes. @Sey-Mour Snowfair enough...we will see soon enough.
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I don't think the Saturday signal persisted to this degree for a full 24 hours...I remember I blogged about it early that AM, and it had faded by 12z that day. But fine....we clearly disagree.
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Maybe rushed? At some point, MJO phase 8 at that amplitude will impart a change, fleeting as it maybe.
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Maybe the N stream phase messes up, and we lack cold....possible. But there should be a big storm.
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K...I'm tired, I need to drop the mic.
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Agree....ZERO consensus.
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If you guys recall, I was all over the system last Saturday decaying on approach, even while the models were dumping copious QPF several days out. I said watch the QPF haircuts...its why I never went over 10", anywhere even in first call, despite 1-2' clowns. This isn't the same thing....that said, that doesn't mean no precip type issues.
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The seasonal tendency to weaken on approach was due to RNA/NAO block shearing.....there is somewhat of a PNA ridge here. I don't think this signal weakens.....Sey-Mour Signal
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I think people are traumatized by all of the seasonal can kicking. I highly doubt this signal fades...I think the larger issue will be precip type.
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JD... I get that appeal of Saturday being closer, and God knows we are all sick of playing soccer with the can...but if there is an issue with a threat, which there is here (confluence), then the closer range works against you. Limiting factors next week are more correctable than they are with respect to Saturday. That said, obviously it's easier for me to say up here.
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It's been locked on that look since 12z yestersay.
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European ensembles and OP have been focused on next week for 24 hours.
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That run sucks, but we have continuity on a major storm NEXT WEEK.
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N Stream interacted later.
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Better than up the Andrea Gale's flagpole.
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You shouldn't.
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That is the risk, but I like my odds better of appreciable snows with that one...which is why I said I wouldn't feel as good near the s coast. That said, EPS has been less amped.
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Kevin's mind set is non linear, as well....at baseline, he will latch into the nearest threat like a pitbull and be resistant to any reality that runs to the contrary. But if his frustration reaches a certain threshold, then its "Raines to Maines"....or "only nickles and dimes" or...."done for the season" He has cycled through that and returned to baseline...for now.
