40/70 Benchmark

Have you ventured past these graveyards? https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt its not as strong as it looks, just as the la nina last year was stronger than it looked. You want to tell me it won't be cold or a great retention season...agreed. But I don't see anything at all that suggests a train wreck.

Its only a concern if you are looking for a cold winter....it makes prolonged and severe blocking less likely, which is happening due to CC, anyway.

What is the site for these historic subsurface plots?

Overattribution can go both ways, too....you can incorporate easterly QBO without forecasting a 1995-1996 style seasonal blocking.

I feel like we have to be wary of overattribution...ie feeling compelled to go below normal snowfall in NE due to -PDO/QBO. How I interpret that is a reduced chance of a blockbuster season, but in the absence of other strong mitigating factors, its not necessarily a death knell for NE snowfall.

I get what snowman is saying and at the end of the day, its about remaining consistent within your own seasonal forecasting ideology....and I feel as though I am doing that since I do not expect below normal precipitation or temperatures. I buy the warmer/wetter tendency for +IOD and the blocking tendency for -QBO only in the sense that I do not expect a very robust PV...its the -QBO/below average precipitation tendency that I put the least stock in. SO, I guess in terms of weight... 1 +IOD Milder Temps 2 +IOD Wetter 3 -QBO Some blocking 4 -QBO dry NE

I do buy the -PDO as more of an issue for precipitation because I can see how less incidence of PNA ridging would impede systems from climbing the coast. Anyway, I don't expect a top ten snowfall season around these parts.

Conflicting signals, which is usually the case in seasonal forecasting. It comes down to whether the forecaster wants to incorporate the -QBO or +IOD more into the precipitation forecast. I don't see how the QBO would limit precipitation in the NE, aside from some seasons that featured extreme blocking, which I do not expect to be the case. I feel as though CC will reduce the occurrence of precipitation deficits and protracted episodes of extreme blocking, so I am pretty consistent with that. I do see what E QBO favors more blocking...not a huge factor, but it makes sense.

There is a school of thought that the WV from the volcanic eruption will induce a strong PV this season, so its important to keep a close vigil on it starting in November....the early returns are confirming what I have already suspected to be the case.

He bailed on last winter in mid December.

Another thing about the +IOD...if you are going to entertain the warm proclivity of +IOD seasons, then I'm not sure how you can disregard the reduced tendency for the NE to get porked precipitation wise....most of the years that screwed the NE and were dry were -IOD. If you are going to use the IOD, then it needs to be incorporated without bias and partiality to context. Like I said, it makes sense to me because it only confirms what I had already figured with respect to temps due to the -PDO.

I know you posted EURO guidance forecasting a PV split...which at this early juncture is not significant in and of itself, but it would be another feather in the hat of those arguing that the volcano is not going to pull a Pinatubo.

Yes. That-

I interpret that the same way I do the -PDO...less likely we see a cold winter, but doesn't mean a torch, as you can see by the composite analogs....sign me up for 1963, 1977 and 1986...goes along with my theme of the polar domain being the deciding factor.

Social media is filled with them...then they project the ostracism that comes from a preoccupation with winter onto everyone else within the circle.

Its funny how we joke about the snowfall dependence as a mental illness, but I would honestly be more compelled to clinically assess those who feel the need to incessantly fend off potential disappointment with the expectation of a negative outcome. That to me is indicative of the most severe dependency of all.

2015-2016 was pretty close to being a ratter here...borderline. But other than that, I have managed to dodge a true ratter since 2011-2012, however, I have had 5 consecutive and 8/9 subpar seasons since 2015. But that is how my area is relative to most of SNE...less variance. I tend to be just far enough north to get porked in huge years, and pull out some NNE scraps to narrowly avoid ratters.

I have to me a concerted effort to engage in other outlets in order to maintain sound MH in a winter like last year, don't get me wrong lol

For a variety of reasons lol

Just because folks only engage here to any great extent when it snows doesn't mean they sit in a corner trembling and urinating themselves the other 9 months.

I think they are connected.....modoki events are more favorable for blocking, and canonical less so.....I think basin wide events are more prone to extratropical forcing.

Total agreement. I think that has to do with @Typhoon Tip's working theory about CC making the globe more prone to fast flow.

I was among the worst that season, and the fact that I would take that set up and run should tell you something.

Your thought process is far too rigid and simplistic.... @brooklynwx99had the perfect word for it, which conveniently escapes me. Ideally, el nino would be weaker in order to ensure more N stream dominance vs the STJ, but it doesn't have to end as badly as 2010 did, either....we could have easily got hit with that sequence in February, and that season is remembered like 2002-2003, which was a similar el nino.