40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I must have had a breeze...what I figured. Normally a radiate like a MOFO.

You mean the mid levels are better here? I could see that, but haven't checked at day 6.

?

EURO focuses SOP it looks to me...but I haven't looked at that potential closely.

The Scotland Hill meso just over the Haverill line was 13, too, so its fine.

Any idea why I only hit 13.3 last night? Don't really care, but hope there isn't issue with my station..

I would say that the GEPS are in between, but more in line with the EPS.

That is a reversal.

Main theme I see is not much snow the next couple of weeks.

Great event, but not in my top 5...maybe top 10. My sister and bro-in-law had a summer home in Falmouth at the time...so pissed I didn't chase it there.

Odd....usually my lows are fairly neck-and-neck with KASH...maybe a tic warmer.

I agree, but just saying....

I don't think I get much above 50.

Only down to 13.3 here...odd...maybe clouds hung around overnight....

Probably not.

The wonder of whiffing on a big window with nothing in sight...with no weather to analyze, we analyze each other and that never ends well.

Take the under up here.

I'm saying it definitely predisposes the convection to that location, yes. But I agree that the jet extension made it significantly warmer than it otherwise than it otherwise would have been.

It's both....what you are speaking of is more of what I focused on in my write up....weaker expression of warm ENSO. Not arguing against that at all....but I just wished I would have emphasized the Maritime forcing a bit more than I did, especially in December. And I did definitely emphasize it as it was.

A lot of it would have been with respect to the narrative in how I explained things....less emphasis on a "weaker" expression of El Niño resulting from the west PAC warm pool and more emphasis on the El Niño having to compete with it. I guess it just has more to do with my understanding and conceptualization of the El Niño/hemisphere interface., which will make my forecasts in the future better. As far as the forecast itself this season, I would have emphasized 2015 more as an eary season analog and been warmer.

I will also add that seasonal forecasting is much more viable in two week increments than 2-3 month increments, which is probably why Bluewave does it that way. I focus more on the medium range during the winter season, at the expense of the extended stuff.

Webb made a good point about the Indian Ocean forcing being more favorable in Feb/March than Dec/Jan.

We were more on the same page than it ostensibly seemed, but my perception of what exactly the RONI and MEI were trying to convey was a bit astray, which impacted my interpretation of which hemispheric elements would be most prominent this year.

This winter isn't over and I still feel snowfall makes a nice comeback.....but that said, regardless of what happens from here on out...my largest lesson gleaned this season is with respect to the how interpret the MEI/RONI concepts. I have always perceived it as lower readings of those metrics was synonymous with a simply weaker expression of ENSO, however, Bluewave really cystralized it with me in describing lower MEI/RONI as reflective instead of "competing forces". Just that two word clarification will make me a better seasonal forecaster moving forward.

All 3 major ensemble suites are locked and loaded in agreement on about 3-4" (10:1) over most of SNE off of the south coast over the next two weeks. That blows dead penguins.