40/70 Benchmark

Solar is definitely a factor... clear dichotomy between high and low solar with respect to tropical activity. Bluewave is a genius, but he loves to tie everything to CC....pretty sure that is where he is headed (Saharan rainfall increase) with downplaying the role of the solar cycle. Truth is that they probably both play a role. I don't mean to criticize him either....but we all have certain biases and proclivities. Posters are like models...learn the tendencies.

Last season was a perfect illustration of this....if you viewed everything through the lens of yesteryear, 1957 looked like a decent analog. This is the trap that I fell into.

Yes...CC is exacerbating the preexisiting sample size issue.

"Snowfall up to thy knickers on the level dissapeared with the hastiness of a summer dress".

Elephant in the room.....the omniprescent issue within the context of all atmospheric research is the relative dearth of data/sample size.

Yea, that is reasonable for as long as said heat waves remian as presently constituted.

I think a lot of this is perfectly valid to call into question, but this idea of the West PAC warm pool permanently altering things should still be viewed as the alternative viewpoint...IOW, assume large scale oscillations will continue to operate relatively similiarly to how they have for the past 200 years plus until proven otherwise. Its akin to being up 3-0 in a series and feeling like you have the upperhand when you win one in a best-of-seven. You're still down 3-1 and are probably losing. If we hit the early 2030's and nothing has changed and Bluewave continues to prance nude in phase 5 unabated, then perhaps we have the 2004 Red Sox on our hands.

There will probably be some variations moving forward, so I see what Chris is saying on some level.....but I highly doubt a discontinuation of the cycles.

I think its logical to conclude that maybe we don't see a -AMO cycle reach the depths of what we have in the past....

Looks like to me there may been back in the 1800s.

Unless you find away to halt the sun from descending, doubtful.

Would probably kick start the warm Phase of the PDO and lead into the pants tent INVO solar mind near the turn of the decade.

Well, considering that we had only been in the cold PDO phase for 15 years and the warm AMO phase for 14 years, no one should have expected that the respective cycles were changing phases last decade. Looking back throughout history into the 1800s, there have always been smaller scale fluctuations that were counter to the concurrent multidecadal trend. As for CC altering the versions of the cycles as we know them, talk to me in 10 years, but for now that is something straight out of a Rod Sterling adaptation.

Hopefull its dry for another month...then @Damage In Tollandand I can get away with just one more mow.

This is why periodicity is a great guide...I would have called BS on that flip over 10 years ago. As far as the incorporation of -AMO analogs this season, that is part of the art of seasonal forecasting. I have always blended them, anyway, but perhaps that wasn't/isn't always the best idea....probably part of the reason I have struggled lately.

1971-1972 could be a decent analog...I just don't like how La Nina died so early on in the winter season, which is probably at least partly why February was such a good month....maybe be an okay analog for the first half.

I haven't counted the days...all I know is that once we hit the preceeding month, the CFS has a decent conceptualization of how the next month will evolve.

I don't think anyone has a shred of doubt that most of the east is going to finish above average....I couldn't care less about that. But the question is whether or not it will be to a degree that is prohibitive to a respectable winter throughout at least the northeast. Its like focusing on the fact that someone broke a nail in a 30 care pile up....forest through the trees. The relevent question is how serious are the injuries....no one gives a rat's ass anout the skinned knee.

Nah, it has been decent at 30 day intervals.

No question in my mind the AMO is getting ready to flip....its about every 30 years, so the periodicity aligns....1965-1995-2025. The PDO is also getting ready to flip simultaneously (1948-1977-1998-???) and I think you have to go back into the late 1800s to find the last time that they that occured.

I think if that pattern persisted into much of December it would be telling, as well.

I would keep your pants on until we get within 30 days, but that is consistent with the idea of -WPO running the show early on, which I endorse.

I don't really care whether or not Phil endorses it.....I have seen enough to be confident that high solar caps ACE.

Yea, the RONI is going be be probably near the lower end of moderate......I began the summer thinking upper moderate, so that is good.

Interesting....there has only been one official La Nina since 1950 that has registered a JJA ONI this high, which is 2017 also at 0.1 and went onto peak at -1.0.