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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    No argument from me on that.....Maybe it runs a few days into March, but I think that will be a relatively nice month in terms of sensible weather. Maybe Raindance is right and there is a cold snap or two, but I am talking in the mean. I don't see a very wintry month.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thank you.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is the best site to use for the up to date numerical departures? I never even look at those...I just go by the maps, so if I am off on that, it was not intentional....again, it's all checked in the spring.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    But back to the original point, I don't consider +3 top +4 an "exotic" positive departure. Maybe others disagree.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    So, maybe it's more like +2 to +4 instead of +1 to +3? I use the maps on this site and the complete monthly in degrees F will be out in about a week...but I check it all in May. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/getpage/
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I just approximate based on that map I posted, which isn't the complete month, anyway....but like I said, the final assessment is done in May, when the dust is settled and I have access to all of the maps, etc.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Worcester always runs warm...it's been a long standing issue. That said, did I say here were cool spots?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I went a little warmer than this composite implies...I have been trying to do that more because the composite maps of old analogs just aren't representative anymore.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll get the actual final F departures when those maps are ready...the seasonal forecast isn't graded until May.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    It still definitely matters with oceans warming and all, but not as much as one may think.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Check the January thread.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, by far the largest impact of GW is the ability radiate during winter nights.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was definitely a little warmer than I expected, but not like December...and otherwise the month largely evolved as anticipated.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    GW is definitely real and anthropogenic to some degree, but the thing is the majority of it manifests nocturnaly during the cold season. Yes, it is absolutely causing more frequent positive departures during the day, but it's often resulting in situations in which we register large mean monthly anomalies despite a relative to dearth of really warm daytime hours. January 2021 was another great example.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said that there wasn't "exotic" warmth near the coast of SNE. Enough with the spinning BS. Tough to justify getting more then 5PPD when you waste them on this sophomoric shit....yea, please, pretty please give us more of this.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I said it wasn't obscenely warm where I live.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I read your outlook, which is why I gave you credit for it...I said "NE"...not mid Atlantic.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we will get some arctic air in mid February.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it has something to do with the EPO/WPO, which has been pretty hostile this year. Raindance did well with that, too.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    12z locks the cold on the other side of the globe again.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    This January actually reminded me a bit of last January with the Pacific ridge leading to a western biased +PNA, which acted as a deep RNA. Does that look like a +PNA....becuase it was.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Take note of how biased the MJO route penduluum has been in favor of the right hand side...that is not by chance.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, December partially sucked because of strong El Nino.....not really January.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Is it crazy to see how this ends up in phase 3, 4 or 5 right as February ends?
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