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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Place it over cool water and it is still going to weaken, albeit at a slower pace than it would at a more deliberate rate of movement.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think I agree that it doesn't matter......yes, the fast rate of movement helps the system by limiting upwelling, but the the starting point of the latent energy is still about as high as it can possibly be. I Think that helps mitigate the detrimental impact of relatively hostile mid levels.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I remain on the aggressive side of things. Never expected as much weakening as the official forecast implied INVO Jamaica, either.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not with the wife away, no...only innies
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    After a wet May, I only had 2.27" of rainfall throughout June, as most of the activity has been south of me of late....def. noticed a decreased rate of lawn growth over the course of the past couple of weeks due to the drier conditions. It was much faster in May and most of June.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is def. a bit of a lag between presentation and actual intensity changes. I still like the northern side of the track envelop at this time...probably a First Call either tonight or tomorrow and Final on Sunday. TCHP isn't nuts in the SW GOM like it was in the Caribbean, but certainly enough to support intensification back to a hurricane assuming favorable mid levels.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we don't necessarily need wholesale changes to get a better sensible weather result in terms of winter in the east. However, especially from around mid SNE and up....just a break here and there and snowfall would have been much better recently.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Post the link for the microwave imaging? TIA....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, no question...this has been my baseline assumption heading into the season.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the poster who made the point about the rapid speed of movement over exceptional TCHP countering the hostile mid level envt. nailed it....not to mention how pristinely developed that core was upon encountering the more hostile conditions is why its perservering so well.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly. Thank you. I was busy with Beryl last night, but this perfectly illustrates the point. Total agreement with you here.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, agree...intensity will determine alot, which is why I hedge US threat.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last update prior to a potential First Call on Friday. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/07/devastating-hurricane-beryl-poised-to.html
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    IDK...that ring of lightning around the eye doesn't scream "weakening" to me....though I'm sure it's not rapidly deepening, either given sat. appearance.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    We can agree that it has some utility, but exactly what that is and how great it is remains to be determined. I am sure not all of us will see eye to eye with respect to a frontier concept within a frontier science.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, I agree with this....I think the MEI was a bit wonky and not reflective at 1.1 or 1.2....I think the RONI peaked at around 1.5 and the was a good proxy for ENSO intensity IMO.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....1994-1995 and 2006-2007. Two other negative(ish) PDO seasons, but the warmer west PAC last year made the MC influence even more dramatic, not to mention a warm global base state.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the PDO being so negative was at least partially a reflection of a poorly coupled El Niño.....intuitively speaking, it makes sense that the one element of a poorly coupled super El Niño that would be relatively unmitigated is the potent STJ given all of the warmth around the globe right now.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    1972 probably got the PDO near neutral because the RONI wasn't as cool that year, most likely due to the cooler west PAC relative to last year. I was slow to catch on, but Bluewave nailed it with that marine heat wave.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep....1994 and 2006 weren't too dissimilar, either.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    If it crosses dead-center, then that is possible.....but its not going from a 3 or 4 to a TS. It would to be a confluence of factors in addition to the island.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the over unless shear begins to have a much greater impact....the island itself won't do that, especially considering speed of movement.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    These are great points....hadn't thought of that.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The effect will be negligible, which is why Gilbert resumed intensification immediately....that would not have happened had the core been significantly disrupted.
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