40/70 Benchmark

Pretty satisfied with my call...I think being an hour too slow with landfall at Matagorda cost me that 15 MPH between forecast landfall intensity and actual. Hurricane Beryl Well Forecast Overall Landfall Locale Perfectly Predicted While Intensity Slightly Overestimated The Eastern Mass Weather Final Call for Hurricane Beryl was for a landfall in Matagorda, TX at approximately 6 AM EDT Monday as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 95 MPH. Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, TX at 5 AM EDT as a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 979 MB. Obviously the forecast landfall location was perfect, as it made landfall at Matagorda one hour ahead of schedule. However, the landfall intensity left a bit to be desired, as it ended up being too aggressive at 95 MPH maximum sustained winds as opposed to the landfall intensity of 80 MPH. This is due to the fact that it simply did not have quite as much time to work the dry air out of the circulation as anticipated. Thus while the general forecast philosophy that Beryl would remain a minimal hurricane due to this environmental limitation was correct overall, the fact that it moved slightly faster than anticipated likely made the difference between the 80 and 95 MPH landfall intensity respectively since it had begun intensifying rapidly at landfall. Timing is everything with a rapidly intensifying system- Final Grade: A-

Keep in mind, I also stated in my forecast that damage may be more on par with cat 2 given the intensification through LF...quite a storm.

Damage may be more consistent with a two given it was intensifying quickly.

The intensity guidance on this was exceptional.

Nailed the track, but too strong (95 vs 80 MPH), as suspected. Meh. If this thing had another 12-24 hours....woof.

Tells you all you need to know. There will be no appreciable intensification between now and landfall.

The improving conditions is my only shot at this hitting 95MPH.

Yea...I think my call is the ceiling...agree.....gun to head now, it will be lower than that...like 80 MPH.

Interesting note from recon, they observed paint drying out in the Gulf while looking for significant signs of intensification within Beryl's inner core.

All systems need to be go with respect to not only the environment, but the structure....the importance of the latter is what many folks have underestimated. Post ERC systems often get like this with a broad core that never seems to recapture that tightly coiled vigor....the state that I refer to as "skunked". Beryl is in this state. Hopefully my 95 MPH landfall call isn't too aggressive.

This has about 12 hours left. I am just about ready to remove the possibility of cat 2 from the table. I feel like it needed to be in a better position by now.

It doesn't look great to me.

The issue is that the continued dry air entrainment, although decreasing, is still definitely present at this hour...now into the early PM. That dry air needs to be entirely washed out of the core so that convection in association with the CDO can intensify and expand......this is just when we will begin to see a more concerted pressure drop. And THEN, the circulation will need to tighten for the aforementioned processes to translate to significantly increased max sustained winds and its going to take the better part of the 15 hours or so that it has remaining to accomplish this. The system cannot fully avail itself of even the most pristine atmospheric conditions until this is accomplished in its entirety. This is why I like the current NHC forecast, which is in line with my call for a 95 MPH landfall intensity as a cat 1 hurricane.

I don't agree with your analysis at all. Window for 3, albeit always only ajar a hair, is now just about closed and the window for cat 2 is closing. But we shall see-

Define "exploding"..... don't see this thing becoming a major, the core remains fairly broad and disorganized....has that post EWRC "skunked" appeal to me....doubt landfall greater than cat 1.

I think this has the right idea.

Slight changes from Thursday night....I adjusted locale slightly NE from S Padre Island to Matagorda and held intensity at 95 MPH.

Just gonna post my whole Final stab at this since there isn't much traffic at this hour....make sit easy for you guys to scan my dribble. Hopefully some compelling material. Final Call for Hurricane Beryl's Monday AM Strike on Texas Coast Confidence in Track & Even Intensity Increased Current Status: Currently as of 2:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Beryl is centered approximately 275 miles SE of Corpus Christ, Texas and has slowed slightly while veering more towards the NW at 13 MPH. Beryl remains rather disorganized with maximum sustained winds of 60 MPH and a minimum central pressure of 995 MB. However, it is important to note that this pressure is down from a peak of 1001 MB when the system exited the northern coast of the Yucatan early this morning, which means that some slow organization has been occurring during Saturday as anticipated. Track Forecast Rationale: The general forecast philosophy from First Call issued on Friday night is relatively unchanged, as the Eastern Mass Weather expectation that guidance was significantly too far to the southwest and would adjust significantly to the northeast with a faster recurve has proven correct. There is now a much stronger consensus on the future track of Beryl. In fact, there has been such an aggressive move in the consensus that the Final Eastern Mass Weather forecast track will even need to be adjusted slightly further up the Texas Coast from a First Call in the vicinity of a south Padre Island, TX landfall. These are relatively minor cosmetic changes have to do with the degree of trough interaction in the grand scheme of things, but are of course crucial for those living along the Texas coast. In addition to a slightly faster recurve and turn to the north and eventually northeast, one potential ramification of Beryl's interaction with trough actually has more to do with its ultimate intensity at the time of landfall. Intensity Forecast Rationale: Despite a round of intensification late Thursday and Thursday evening, the Eastern Mass Weather expectation that Beryl would begin a more concerted round of weakening due to an increase in wind shear prior to landfall near Cozumel early Friday proved correct. And while the official landfall intensity reflected 110 MPH max sustained winds (975 MB minimum central pressure), the early returns from reports around the area is that they were likely even less. Beryl has since weakened to a tropical storm with 60 MPH sustained winds as anticipated and has only slowly reorganized during the day on Saturday, which was also part of the forecast due to a badly disrupted core. This is due to both a combination of decreasing southern shear around the western periphery of the departing ridge to the system's west. And a drier air that continues being entrained into the redeveloping core of Beryl. However, as the system moves to the northwest and the ridge in the opposite direction, further away to the east, shear will continue to decrease. This will give way to light diffluent flow in the mid levels of the atmosphere in advance of the approaching trough that will begin to augment poleward outflow Simultaneously, drier air will begin being worked out away from the rapidly evolving core as Sunday morning progresses. It is at this point that Beryl will also begin traversing even warmer sea surface temperatures by midday Sunday en route to the Texas coast. Although the speed of movement is in the process of slowing somewhat, it should be enough to promote a great deal of upwelling, especially considering that Beryl will not be a particularly intense cyclone. Regardless, TCHP is certainly supportive of at least a minimal hurricane on approach to the coast. Given what will evolve into a nearly ideal environment for intensification during the final 12-18 hours prior to landfall, Beryl should be a healthy and rapidly intensifying hurricane when it makes landfall around 6 AM on Monday morning. The only saving grace for Texas in terms of a potential major hurricane strike will be time. Final Call: While the official forecast landfall intensity is 95 MPH and reflective of a category one hurricane, it would not be at all suprising for damage to be consistent with a category two hurricane given that the system will be intensifying and perhaps rapidly so at landfall. This is because intensifying systems often more proficientlly mix higher winds gusts down to the surface. First Call: Issued Thursday 7/4 @ 11 PM:

I don't and have never expected significant intensification until midday Sunday into the afternoon. No sweat.

I interpret that as the guidance having concerns with respect to the storm structure...as in can it tighten that new core up, then its off to the races.

Well, to be fair, I can see why it can be argued that it was not east tiled strictly in terms of ENSO regions SSTS...but the Hadley Cell was definitely slightly east and the atmosphere behaved as such that season. Anyway, like I said...I have it down as hybrid, not east.

I think part of the issue is weighting 1.2 as heavily as the other regions when calculating..that is ill advised. A- Region 1.2 is minuscule in size compared to the other regions. B- Its very volatile...considering that and viewing the maps, the event was clearly centered in regions 3 and 3.4.

You evidently don't understand what a Modoki is.