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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the past two el ninos were crap.....2010 was a fluke, and 2016 was the super event.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, you live in Toronto.....no fan of winter weather residing in SNE should prefer a la nina March to that of el nino. I realize that there are exceptions to this.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had some snow grains around midnight, but no trace of it this AM.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not doubting that. I am just speaking to my interpretation of CNE, which ORH is not. Doesn't matter, anyway because trend is likely not done.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea....expect this to be the theme of December. People are expecting 50's and driving rains wondering what happened once a winter storm is imminent.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Latitude > elevation this weekend.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    CNE implies N of ORH to me....I take that as Bershires through Monadkocks and SNH.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have some hope for March, but I am not crazy about the big JFM idea.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are exceptions...but odds are against it, especially with a moderate to strong peak.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weakening la nina leading to a big second half...if we have a good second half, then it will be due to a SSW. There is a lag between ENSO and the atmosphere....climo dictates that la nina winters do not have big finishes.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    BS IMO.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is exactly the window that I mentioned to kick things off in the outlook. All you need is the cold in Canada...I would be surprised if at least a couple of them do not work out over the course of the next 2-3 weeks.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Neither is east...its been a central season in the early going. I expect to begin making up ground rather shortly...I think it's a good pattern for my area.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm sure Steve will be all over it.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I expect a similar outcome here.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was thinking the same thing.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a page right out of the Dec 2007 playbook.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, it was east-based....its becoming central at this point. Agreed.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hi Dave, glad to see you back. The SSW still seems like mostly conjecture at a this point, and I think relying on a dramatic weakening of ENSO as the primary driver for a big second half is always risky...especially in a la nina, which usually do not have big endings in the east.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense to me. I had Philly in the 11-21" range this season.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    What we know is the odds of a whiff are pretty low with a pattern like this, so its all about having enough cold in the bank, which we should. This doesn't mean that it will be pretty, and it may involve some advisory 2-5" stuff to ice and rain, but its still snow.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that doesn't look abysmal to me. I didn't expect December 1998 of December 1999 before the season, nor do I now.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anafrontal snow, Inverted trough snows, backlash, SNE severe weather and big wind events in the Merrimack valley. Obviously there are times when these do in fact work out, but more often than not, they end up an artifact of modeling.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    The very same models that are now implying a warm December were emphatically signalling otherwise a mere several days ago....and this was before they were all very warm previously before that. Unstable to say the least. This is not about "accepting" anything, at least with me...I am anticipating a mild winter with slightly below average snowfall, however, I do feel as though December will be more wintry than guidance currently suggests.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it means anything for winter, given the lag that exists between ENSO and the atmosphere.
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