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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Luke, I understand that concern...if you had included that in the intial response, then I would have reacted differently. I have 3 little ones with a 4th imminent, so I'm not that engaged on here when its quiet. I have no clue what you have or haven't been clear about. It looked to me just like a butt-hurt, eastern Mass envy post. I agree that its not perfect, but we have a fighting chance, which is a welcomed change from the past two seasons and really the majority of the past decade.
  2. Looks like I will clearly be too warm for December, but hopefully I'm not wrong about January, as I felt that would be the best month going in.
  3. Euro looks much more realistic now...1-3" for N ORH hills and maybe 2-5" in the Berkshires before the turkey day rain.
  4. Man, I like the angle of the dangle....that PV is oriented right in our direction. Definitely going to at least feel wintry.
  5. We need a seperate seasonal banter thread for all of the neurotic, fatalistic defense mechanisms born of the past several seasons of trauma that are sure to foster incessant bickering.
  6. Right....the coast and the interior. That about covers it. Is there an underground world that I'm not privy to, which is immune to Miller B systems?
  7. Well, its time....F5 already fired up and now time to invoke Wxbell. Looks like game-on for at least a while here in the early season.
  8. You can get rather potent N stream systems appear with relatively short lead times.
  9. I incorporated your methodology to add confidence to the general mismatch idea, but I honed in on the WPO due to an area of anomalus warmth over the western Pacific. I do think we will see more competing influences over the course of the season. I thought January would be the most wintry month, but perhaps it will be December, instead.
  10. Yes, I agree. We are seeing cracks in the foundation of this regime, at long last. Light at the end of the warm pool.
  11. I would amend it and say "above 700' north of pilke", but I still think its mostly a VT, NH, ME deal.
  12. Yea, I defintely gambled a bit and went against the consensus on ENSO.
  13. A decent snow event across most of SNE....I know you aren't forecasting that per se, and are merely communicating what the data is indicating.
  14. I am conflicted because as much as I love snow and winter, I also love being right and I need the pattern to go to shit to not end up with egg on my fact for the month of December. I still think we are quite mild by Christmas.
  15. This is the scenario that I ultimately went with. Over the summer and early into the fall, if you followd my updates, I was advertising a weak to moderate La Nina with the 2008-2009 event as the floor. However, later in the fall it became clear that the "floor"scenario was becoming most likely.
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