40/70 Benchmark

I mean, I think it will ebb and flow, but don't expect a 2015 ridge to sit on the eskimo's face.

Back in November, I picked 12/5 to 12/19 and 2/20 to 3/5 as my periods.

Yea, we need timing....this is a good example of the value of an NAO. Its overrated in the sense that there is a misperception that you need it for a big event. You don't, but if we had it here, then the path to a fun solution would be much wider because the confluence would be held in place and the system would be forced to dig.

DT has had a rough couple of years.

Walt, please drop in here whenever time permits....appreciate the thoughts.

If the Atlantic doesn't change, then I can see an early spring, but I still feel as though it will. The Pacific should largely remain crap....that is what I have said since Novie.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/verification-january-18-19-winter-storm.html It was stated that this was a relatively easy forecast, and in hindsight that assessment was correct. Here is the forecast, which was originally issued last Wednesday at 8pm: This is the outcome: Modeling remained steadfast from a fairly extended lead that the original parent system would track well to the west, and it would begin to redevelop as it traversed the area, which would limit snowfall of greater than 6" across the region. This was indeed what transpired. However the mixing was not quite aggressive as forecast due to the resistance of the arctic high to the north. This was largely immaterial to the forecast snow amounts, since the majority of mixing was not expected to occur until the event was winding down, but the upper cape did receive a bit more than the forecast of around 1", This is evidenced by the 2.5" reported in Sandwich, MA. Additionally, the upper bound of the 4-7" forecast range to the north of Boston would have been better served to be 6", as opposed to 7". The anticipated subtle topographical enhancement in Berkshires did not play out, likely due to the very progressive nature of the system.

It won't melt any faster than it did in the mid Tanuary 70s.

Yea, only blemish on my forecast was that the mixing stayed south, but it was immaterial to accumulations.

That was apparent beforehand.

+5.5" 34"

Yea...def easiest forecast of the season. I had it nailed like last Sunday.

5.5" Final Squarely in the center of my 4-7" forecast range. 19.0

Worst case scenario is that it waits until March, but I think we have a good shot at February. I went into the season confident in a significant stretch of - NAO during the February through March period....so far so good on my thoughts, and hopefully that continues. One thing thatI have learned, though is to never take anything for granted....big slice of humble pie last year, so we will see.

5" even..just over inch past hour Still good growth 19 2

I'm a fan of that, too.. guess the constant back and forth from the same posters gets old.

Yea, I wouldn't have issued a warning, but is what it is. 4"

He is fair...just seems like heavy, heavy redundancy. Wasn't a knock..

Who is us and by whom??

We get it. Jesus....lol

2.25" 17.8

1.1" 16.9

I'm the last...lol