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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you mean January 1987....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't disagree with this.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    That has zero to do with my actual outlook. Its simply a base ENSO composite.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here is my insanely preliminary weak la nina composite....only sorted by ENSO, at this point.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    My next blog will start getting more into the particulars of the weak la nina composite years. I am very confident we weak nina....highly doubt cold-neutral.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never realized how insanely close it was for me in Wilmington...I wasn't as scrupulous back then as I am today. It started snowing heavy in MBY, and I was like.....okay, we good. Little did I know that it was relatively inconsequential snow in like Lawrence/N Andover...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thank god that I wasn't at my current spot near the NH border in Methuen, then....I would have swan dived into the Merrimack. I remember laughing at the 5" of pixie dust that was reported in Methuen, while staring out the window in Wilmington at my 18-20" of fluff.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    How was the run this morning?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I ruled out a cat 5...which it didn't achieve. I didn't forecast a cat 1...I forecasted a 3.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Forecast for Laura was nearly flawless in terms of track from a pretty extended lead (over 80 hours), while the intensity forecast left something to be desired. However, the error was pretty acceptable given the 30 hour lead time from issuance to landfall. Final Grade: B https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/devastating-hurricane-laura-verification.html
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    66.2 on the station at home...love it.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is always a change with a weak ENSO....never a non-starter. That said, it could still be a terd...as we have seen for two years running.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    A twitter met who likes to be a contrarian, but doesn't like to be wrong....dangerous life.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's been very, very fresh of late...
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    What else are you supposed to do, aside from measure the winds with planes and sample the pressure...lol Maybe he should grab an anemometer and jump on an oil rig and wait..
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    The pressure is pretty commensurate with the listed max sustained winds...not sure why anyone would think that...
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    He's falling into that trap of reaching to perpetuate a bad forecast's lifespan. Just let it go..it only compounds matters and makes it worse.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it may be within several hours of peaking, but yea...no idea what Cranky smoked. I'd be cranky, too if I were staring down the barrel of that bust.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this run has it nailed.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/08/hurricane-laura-targets-tx-la-final-call.html Orange, LA 1am Thursday 110-125mph
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, I don't doubt it...that was my first call.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, SW LA is another boring landfall spot...as is the border area where Rita hit. The western Gulf coast has lots of population holes, unlike the eastern side.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that settles it.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Marco was never expected to go "right"....it always looked to kiss hurricane strength and no more. On Friday, I expected a similar fate for Laura, maybe a bit better, but over the weekend it appeared likely that shear would abate. We need to see if that goes according to plan. Knowing this year, it wouldn't surprise me if it didn't, or it did and we still peaked at 105mph.
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