40/70 Benchmark

Hopefully my area would be well positioned for that.

This is consistent with my January forecast.

Holy split flow

Wow, I think I wanna jump into @MJO812's cruiser now.

"But an ideal manifestation would be when you do get a relaxation, and manage to avoid being 50+ on Christmas".

Discuss and post pics.

I hate that site, though...the graphics are much more ambiguous.

Interesting ride in the cruiser for some unassuming shoplifter....crime really doesn't pay.

https://www.google.com/search?q=cha+cha+changes+lyrics&sca_esv=2ba1e0c14cc8627a&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS1049US1049&sxsrf=ADLYWILsNdjojrd0IuuOMlMGVOBd0-7rWg%3A1732717126141&ei=RipHZ_KtCP2JptQPo7nt8Qs&oq=cha+cha&gs_lp=Egxnd3Mtd2l6LXNlcnAiB2NoYSBjaGEqAggAMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMgoQABiABBhDGIoFMggQLhiABBixAzIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBTIKEAAYgAQYQxiKBTIIEAAYgAQYsQMyChAuGIAEGEMYigUyChAAGIAEGEMYigUyBRAAGIAESLocUABYrA5wAXgBkAEAmAGQAaAB_gSqAQM2LjG4AQHIAQD4AQGYAgigAqoFqAIUwgIHECMYJxjqAsICEBAAGAMYtAIY6gIYjwHYAQHCAgoQIxiABBgnGIoFwgINEC4YgAQYQxjUAhiKBcICExAuGIAEGMcBGCcYigUYjgUYrwHCAgQQIxgnwgIOEC4YgAQYxwEYjgUYrwHCAg0QLhiABBixAxhDGIoFmAMEugYGCAEQARgKkgcDNy4xoAexYQ&sclient=gws-wiz-serp#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:94077583,vid:4BgF7Y3q-as,st:0

Watch for a subtle STJ, too....a la 1995...(ducks and runs).

The forcing is always more prominent during the cold season because all of the gradients steepen.

Season won't be that cold, but ENSO is a very storng match....late blossoming, weak Modoki configuration. The east vs west with respect to ENSO is not really important when its weak.

We saw this in 1998, as well. Its so cool how mother nature finds a means of balance.....remember how we had the El Nino with cool ENSO tendencies last year, now, we have a fledgling cool ENSO with El Nino tendencies, despite the MC favored regime of the past decade.

Don't overlook that OV stretching, either....I have notied that and for one, I actually like the angle of the dangle.

Phase 6 neutral.

Those are general guidelines......we know what the base state has been for the past decade. Take a look at phase 6-neutral, anyway...

I would expect it to emerge into the MC given the decay of the +AAM in conjunction with the reinvigoration of cool ENSO.

I don't think anyone expects the season to turn out that severe....cold stretches won't be as intense or protracted. That said, this beats the hell out of the lion's share of the past decade.

I could def. see that, but we need to see how coherent that MJO impulse is as it tries to enter phase 6.

Well, it may just be failing on the mismatch period that deviates from ENSO....we saw that last year when seasonal guidance tried to model a more classic warm ENSO look, but was more accurate with respect to other parts of the season. I do not expect February to roast.

2008-2009 looks like a primo ENSO analog to me...even if this event does remain a smidge weaker.

I cited 12/7 as the first larger ticket potential in my work last night, but that is just derived from a cursory glance at the ensemble suites...certainly could be off nby a day or two.

Pretty much....but I still suspect we see another nice stretch in January.

I could see it lasting through the second week, but I'm with you... December may yet end up above average....I had +3 to +5F for December and we still could hit the lower end of that. I do think a large scale shift in the Pacific is imminent and defintely tried to blend that into the December discourse. These seconday nadirs during a Pacific Cold Phase usually signal the beginning of the end of the long term -PDO....the last strong El Nino before the 2023-2024 event that exhibited a great deal of cool ENSO proclivities was 1972-1973, which was also during the seconday cold phase nadir and was a followed by the longer term phase switch a few years later. The only other cool ENSO tobe preceeded by this strong of a WWB during the month of November was 1998, and this instance that Pacific disharmony marked a transition from warm to cold phase. This mismatching and flux in the tropics is the beginning of the end of this era as we know it. It will be history by the turn of the decade as sure as the word stein will vanish from Kev's lexicon after the first major snow.