40/70 Benchmark

2006 is another pissah December analog.

I'll be suprised if we don't flip back by early January, but then again, I have been suprised for the better part of the last 2 years.

Never a great sign to see 1998 and 1994 littering the CPC analog charts.

I just mean relative to expectation. I think most of us had a low bar for this month, aside from that week-long modeling keg party.

That isn't to imply we will get crushed, thereafter....just an honest assessment of how December looked to me. I do think January will be decent.

This is the December 1999 analog from my forecast composite rearing its head....def some shades of 2022, as well.

No complaints so far...anything in December is gravy IMO.

Gonna update this map slightly tonight because I acidentally omittted the 4"+ area in the NW CT hills and southern Berks.

I think like 25"......jack was like 10mi nw of me, where Lowell and Westford area had like 3'. I was all over that closing off later than guidance indicated. I remember I went into the NYC thread and said that after that run giving them like 3', but it wasn't well received...go figure.

I would take an inch and run at my place...at least look festive through the weekend.

I honestly meant to place a locally up to 4" area in the Litchfield hills and southern Berks...will add that in tonight.

Solid consensus.

Yea

I don't think its imminent given the magnitude of last year's El Nino.

I was a bit nervous for a spell, but feel better about my December call now.

Yea...1972, 1982, 1997, 2015......several more years and we're due.

Such is mid life in a constant catabolic state.

Festive Winter Preview on Tap for Some Areas Early Thursday Plan to Allow Extra Time for Thursday AM Commute A weak system will provide much of the region with a winter preview on Thursday morning, and while accumulating snowfall will primarily be confined to the higher terrain and deep interior, even the Boston metro area may see some snow flakes mixing in with the rain during the morning commute. Thus while this system is not anticipated to be a major event, it remains worthy of ample consideration due to both the time of impact and the reality that the vast majority of the region has yet to record measurable snowfall this season. Synoptic Overview: A weak lobe is poised to separate from the polar vortex during the day today, as a ridge simultaneously begins to amplify along the west coast. The ridge out west will continue to amplify as the PV lobe continues its descent SSE into the US. The amplification of the upstream ridge will allow the system to continue to grow more cohesive throughout the day on Wednesday as it approaches the Great Lakes. And subsequently moves into New York State on Thursday, at which point precipitation will overspread much of New England. Although the system will encounter an arctic airmass over the region, its track through northern New England will allow weak southerly inflow to scour out enough of the cold to ensure primarily rainfall over the coastal plain. However, the higher terrain is likely to see its first plowable snowfall, while all of the interior records its first measurable snowfall. This evolution is expected to complicate the Thursday morning commute at least to some degree. Anticipated Storm Evolution Light snow showers over the interior and rain showers near the coast should overspread the region by midnight late Wednesday evening. Precipitation will become steadier during the predawn hours, as rainfall roughly inside of 128 and mixed precipitation within the 128/495 belt. Primarily snowfall will be the rule near I-495 and beyond. Precipitation may end as a brief burst of more moderate snowfall closer to the coast during the Thursday morning commute prior to tapering off an ending by late morning. First & Final Call:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/festive-winter-preview-on-tap-for-some.html

Go NAM.

Maybe hold the 1997 redux off until about 2033 or so...

Yea, I understand there are caveats abound. We are due for a 1997 type of El Nino, but hopefully after the turn of the decade, which is when I think we could have a very favorable period, otherwise.

I think this deviations should grow easier to come by over the next few years as the Pacific cold phase relinquishes its grip. Caveat being I think polar blockking may be scarcer as we enter the descending phase of the solar cycle.

I expect a similar, but modified outcome next month...perhaps without the blizzard and still slightly above normal.

Meh.