40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I deleted that portion...sometimes I forget forcing isn't favored under the max SST anomalies during la nina, as it is in el nino. I would like to see a shift back east to keep the forcing west.
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Yea, ENSO is def. forcing this season. .
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I was very confident that it would remain weak given climo, but it may be moot, anyway given that MEI is already at the cusp of moderate. This is why I included some moderate years in my latest analog composite. I could see like a -1.0 to -1.1 peak, but I would be surprised at any more than that.
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It may not necessarily help much in the snowfall department, but I will bet against JF being as warm as they were last season and will most likely be right, regardless of the pattern. That was highly anomalous....even considering global warming.
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I wouldn't be surprised to see December end up fine.
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Eh....I think that the MEI is a solid indicator, and its been pinned at -1 for two bi monthly periods. I agree with you regarding this trend for gradient saturation, and think its important to acknowledge it, but its also important to not get carried away and dismiss ENSO altogether.
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We did similarly that year and 2007-08. I had 34.5" in 2006-07.
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Yea, seeing some signs Feb won't be much fun this season.
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You are right. The script and AO did flip, but it was more focused on NNE. We did "okay" in VD mixed bag, then SPD was the best pure snowfall of the season....about 1' in our area nw of town.
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I remember you expressing concern over that last fall.
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The winter of 2006-07 sucked here...it was great for LES belts and good for NNE.
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You have the same station I do.
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He'll be giving himself a prostate massage with that forecast in no time. lol
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Yea, I made out fine in the first event...got like 8" of paste, in W Wilmington, but I expected more in the follow up wave. I got a quick 2" of slush...was like, "Yes, I made it".....then it flipped to rain and poured all night. Heard N Billerica had like 5" and I lost my $hit. Steep pack gradient after those events....I still had several inches of cement, while my dad in Woburn square was wiped clean.
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I probably had high 80's here looking at that...
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@dendrite I have not been able to sign in mobile for months...I get error message 2S119/1. What is the issue? Thanks.
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I had about 73.5" at my mom's in Wilmington......best I can gather here in Methuen is around 90"....similar to your area. Sharp gradient. Brian had like a 5' pack.
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That is what I heard...nothing to substantiate it. Anecdotally supported by the inferior performance with respect to track this season. Ironically enough, it has been fine with regard to intensity, the lower scoring metric under normal circumstances.
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From what I understand, ECMWF has made tweaks to augment mid latitude verification at the expense of the tropics. What I do know is that the latter portion of that is confirmed....we will find out about the former over the course of the next several months. My go-to model concerning the tropics at this point is uncle.
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Its been batting .235 since Envt. Canada started making the RGEM piss in a cup at regular time intervals.
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My guess at how this unfolds moving forward is deteriorating winter climo for weenies during the heart of winter, but some VERY big dogs on the ends....ie, mother nature forging better Novie/Decembers and March....and even (early) April climo moving forward.
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I remember it was great in the Snowmageddon season of 2014-2015.
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It can be deduced from the inferences made in the literature based upon the conducted research with a high degree of confidence. Sure, they didn't state "two", but instead delegated the burden of resolving one plus one to the reader-
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Looks like ECMWF data will be more readily available this season. https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/towards-free-and-open-weather-data-for-all
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A poor December is usually a bad sign in a la nina winter.
