40/70 Benchmark

From what I understand, ECMWF has made tweaks to augment mid latitude verification at the expense of the tropics. What I do know is that the latter portion of that is confirmed....we will find out about the former over the course of the next several months. My go-to model concerning the tropics at this point is uncle.

Its been batting .235 since Envt. Canada started making the RGEM piss in a cup at regular time intervals.

My guess at how this unfolds moving forward is deteriorating winter climo for weenies during the heart of winter, but some VERY big dogs on the ends....ie, mother nature forging better Novie/Decembers and March....and even (early) April climo moving forward.

I remember it was great in the Snowmageddon season of 2014-2015.

It can be deduced from the inferences made in the literature based upon the conducted research with a high degree of confidence. Sure, they didn't state "two", but instead delegated the burden of resolving one plus one to the reader-

Looks like ECMWF data will be more readily available this season. https://www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article/towards-free-and-open-weather-data-for-all

A poor December is usually a bad sign in a la nina winter.

3 Coupling Between Tropical Width and Meridional Variations of MMTG A fundamental driver of the atmospheric circulation is the meridional temperature gradient. Tropical expansion is associated with a poleward displacement of westerlies, jet streams, and storm tracks (Archer & Caldeira, 2008; Chen et al., 2008; Yin, 2005). These phenomena are all associated with the atmospheric meridional temperature gradients (Kaspi & Flierl, 2007; Lesieur et al., 2000; Sampe et al., 2010; Yang et al., 2019), raising the question of whether the displacement of the meridional temperature gradient is associated with the tropical width. Given that the tropical width does not vary homogeneously over all ocean basins (Amaya et al., 2018), we examine the tropical width from a regional perspective. The annual‐mean tropical width over an individual ocean basin is calculated as a metric of the latitude where the near‐surface zonal wind changes from easterly to westerly in the subtropics (USF, see section 2). To get the corresponding pattern of SST gradient related to the wider tropics, we regress the USF indices of tropical width onto a field of absolute value of meridional SST gradients over their corresponding ocean basins (Figure 1). Both observations and model results from the CMIP5 exhibit a decrease of SST gradient over the latitude band between 25° and 40°, while an increase of SST gradient is found over the latitude band between 40° and 55°. Such features are notable across all ocean basins. The pattern illustrates that the wider tropics are linked to poleward displacement of the meridional SST gradient over the midlatitude area, that is, MMTG. While the study corroborates John's assertion that the Hadley cell is expanding, it also acknowledges that it should be more prevalent across the southern hemisphere, where there is more ocean. Interesting.

@Typhoon Tip https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020JD033158#.X3HjuTQr_gY.twitter

From my perspective: Great Okay Good

Agree, but a weaker version....

The seasonal snowfall map looks good to me.

That is what I am afraid of...

The quarantine 15...though for squirrels, its 15oz, hopefully lol

Anyone care to elaborate on this? I don't know much about the impact of that, so its a real wild card...

I know what he means, though....I gotta admit that I hate seeing the NAO really dip in October. More often than not, it does't lock in for several months.

Even here, its much more difficult. La nina/+NAO couplet is always a dangerous way to live south of the NH border.

Gotcha....by "good", I meant above normal....just miscommunication.

LOL Every BY for themselves. Sorry about that...didn't mean to tell you your own climo. That is obnoxious...I was just tossing out a la nina with some blocking. It wasn't a disaster for you guys, though, right?

Yea, I have no issues with that theory. I just don't have the background to empirically validate it...

I'm not expert on mid atl climo, so all I can do is point out a la nina with blocking. By all means, feel free to enlighten me with details. Odds are always against down there in la nina, but its just more palatable with a neg NAO.

Agree.

Yea, you can get porked in a neg NAO....no promises, but it helps.

Right...I never implied that it WILL NOT SNOW in the mid atl during a la nina season in which the NAO is + in the means. What I implied was that if you want a "good winter", you will need at least "some" blocking in a la nina season. All of the la nina seasons that had none sucked down there....but yes, there was still some snow....hard not to be above 35* latitude, or whatever...

In other news, SNE's next blizzard will probably not have the impact of the Feb 1978 blizzard...lol