40/70 Benchmark

Please let me know if you guys like the new format, as it seemed the other way was just too tedious and time consuming for both myself as well as the reader.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/11/winter-outlook-2020-2021-mixed-type-la.html Here is my winter outlook, if you are looking for something to pass the time, while a team of molasses molecules counts the NV ballots. The abridged version is linked....there are also options for more technical discussion of the telconnections if so desired. Most wintery period looks to be December, and potentially another bout in March, but it may very well just result in a cold spring...as last season did.

2/3 of my primary analogs were toasters for NE in Nov.

Nov 1970 was not as warm as that composite nationally, but NE was a toaster.

The model output looks neither unreasonable, or overly uninspiring to me...assuming expectations are calibrated with reality.

Plus 2 DJF implies that there is probably one good month in there, and I know where I stand on that.

I actually reall I actually think that looks pretty reasonable. +2-2.5 at this latitude is not winter cancel.

I think it maybe a bit too cold in December and especially January, but like it otherwise.

Simple fix is to install a breathalyzer on his keyboard.

I am surprised that Luke did not garner more of the vote...he is a real dark horse. Seems primed for a melt because just the anticipation of this winter was frustrating him all last summer.

The hope is that they will have enough to declare a winner. Hopefully creepy Joe can spike a ballot and we can get on with our lives.

I agree that it should be over later this AM.

I just mean "unofficial" end....I don't count the tired legal crap.

I did not use it just because I felt it was significantly more strongly coupled than this event, however, I see the utility. I do not expect the pole to be quite so hostile this season....PDO will be worse.

I am going to present my work right after this election wraps up, but I do not think the Pacific will be wall-to-wall crap.

Is this KA''s outlook, Howard? Tom will be posting within the next few days.

Great discussion in here, as always. I am done....just waiting for the election dust to settle and I will present.

I didn't factor that in. I did last season

I will adjust, but the outlook is graded as is. Anyone can get an A if you are spoon fed the answer sheet.

I don't disagree with any of that.

I finished today. Just going to take until the weekend with the snowfall forecast....no sense burying it on election week.

What signal are we abandoning, anyway? Wasn't November always supposed to get mild??

Believe it or not, we had warm winters before you became sexually fixated on fleshy, pulsating Hadley Cells.

It really is in an incredible resource with some gifted minds. I am humbled by the exchange of information each and every season. The fact that someone like myself, who has been math and science deficient my whole life, can compose a coherent winter outlook is largely a credit to these forums.