40/70 Benchmark

We will need some luck as far as the timing of the highs etc, but it can be done.

Negative correlation with October...positive with Novie. Nothing earth shatteringly strong..

While the hindsight composite could reflect that, it doesn't mean we can't get a good stretch....especially early. Also keep in mind that the dry stretch haas to end at some point.

Not so preliminary thoughts....but looong was from anything definitive. I offer up composites as coalesce my thoughts throughout the fall. Not at all a forecast. This is evolving quickly IMO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html

Some thoughts on my end....not too dissimilar from the prevailing thoughts expressed here. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/structural-changes-observed-in.html

I agree about this becoming a more modoki event...just blogging about that now, actually. Of course, a modoki la nina is the inverse Hadley cell configuration of el nino modoki....bad news bears for the east. Great for the west...specially NW.

I'm excited for this season's outlook. My process will be a little bit different this season, as I am going to supply links to background information throughout the finished product, so that folks can actually read the damn thing. The previous format was mind numbing, and I appreciate that many of you pointed that out. @Ginx snewx had a great suggestion to link the basic background information, which I am implementing in a series of addendums detailing major atmospheric drivers. Addendum one is ENSO. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/winter-outlook-2020-2021-addendum-1.html I am really starting to hone in my thoughts early this season and will have more season specific information out tonight.

I always radiate well....some 250-350' "hills" all around me, and I'm snuggled in a little 150'+ valley.

I think region 1.2 warming is another bad sign for the east should that continue.

Hit 29.7 IMBY....growing season cancel. One of the earliest freezes that I can recall...

32.4 this morning...just missed a freeze. Impressive Probably the coldest that it will get all of January 2021.

Euro was good with intensity for Laura...it was a bit weak with Sally.

Not hearing much about the UK, which has been dead-nuts on this season....just about the EURO, which took Laura into Houston and Sally into west of New Orleans. Here is the most likely outcome. Not to mention that its more congruent with climo, which favors large phases further NE, towards the maritimes.

Your weenie self-respect.

Yes...the mea track of NE canes does not run through Bermuda. Exactly.

We dodge!

I'd give the effort for Sally an A. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/hurricane-sally-verification.html

I told a stormchaser on facebook that if a cat 3 landfalls in NE, I'll chase with him wearing a dress and high heels. I stand by that.

Intensity didn't change for Final Call, but track shifted somewhat east. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/hurricane-sallys-approach-final-call.html

Been that way more often than not over the course of the past decade.

Right.....most disparate with snowfall, though....2005 wasn't that cold, but near normal.

Last winter was nothing like 2004-2005 for the northeast in terms of snowfall.

Agree. This weak la nina doesn't look as good for the ne as many have, though. Agree with a lot of what has been said in here, unfortunately.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/09/sally-to-threaten-beleaguered-n-gulf.html