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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Seems like somewhat of an inverse from last season...when things looked good through the first week of December, then went to shit.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Model consensus that the PV will split?
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Basically serviceable look establishes itself when climo does. Not awful.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't really concern myself with summer outlooks. True RE 2005-2006 wastedMarch potential. I actually used the 2005-2006 analog for the 2017-2018 season, citing the forecasted bookend nature of the winter, with an exotically mild stretch in between. Both were ep la nina seasons. Difference is we capitalized on the March potential in 2018. I don't think 1975-1976 is a bad sensible weather analog, but it did not meet my analog criteria.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nothing new.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would give more weight to a modified Dec 1970, but 1999-2000 the rest of the way. 2005-2006 was actually very east based....not mixed type. Nina much weaker...it actually had more going for it leading in. ACE was of course off the charts. Not sure why it was so mild...solar?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for the clarification.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have three..... 1995-1996 127.5" in Wilmington, 2004-2005 107.5" in Wilmington, and 2014-2015 115.5" in Wilmington.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see why it should...its hurricane season. Do we look at 2015 and 2005 any differently in terms of snowfall?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    2/4 of my mixed la nina composite. 1970, 1999, 2007 and 2010. I incorporated 2010 very little for various reasons. 2007 is best.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was being conservative.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    ACE is up to 180....I think @raindancewx said 175 was the breaking point for snowier outcomes in the NE, but since they name every pop up shower today, maybe 170 is a more accurate assessment of this season's activity. Close.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just ripping through 2015 threads....good shit. Maintains winter morale...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, the globe has warmed in 35 years....I think the PDO was predominately positive, too. The arctic was similar.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we are....usually about every 30-40 yrs....
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the forcing will be more representative of an east-based la nina during December, which would imply lift closer to the maritime region, as you suggested...but its funny that Will is referencing the how people would be bridge jumping if a the end to a good pattern was in sight because we will likely see the usual suspects do just that later in December and early January. The VP potential should migrate back to the west as la nina matures, so the favorable change should be temporary.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would be surprised of it had staying power. Obviously the risk is heightened this season, but I don't think that a 2011-2012 style wall-to-wall pig was ever the most likely outcome.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Navahut MILFS....grab a clunker and take her to sled dog night.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Every post for about the past 3 years.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    The abridged cliff-note version of Tip.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    So we get a perfect track with cold rain and only freeze one nut off. Yay.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    So Canada won't be void of cold....its a balance.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Alaska and October stole our snow in 2011-2012. Mid atl stole it in 2009-2010.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think the DM period will be heavily RNA, as many suspect.
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