+3.25"

34.25" should do it for the season.

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/04/long-duration-nor-easter-very-well.html

Versus what actually transpired in terms of snowfall across the area.

 

A-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/04/long-duration-nor-easter-very-well.html

Versus what actually transpired in terms of snowfall across the area.

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Terrible QPF forecast.  Euro wasn’t even close here.  GFS won, IMO.

Reggie and Canadian were way too far south (not getting big snows up here)… NAM wasn’t great.

GFS had it the whole way.

Is there one of these for SNE? I haven't seen BOX post a map....

17 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This photo is classic Stowe. Three-car garage and snow.

Not what you think of for April.

Looks like a painting.

24 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Felt it in me rear. Little bum-shaker was a nice primer

Spring festivities for the Big Dipper.

3.25" Final

3.0"

Just what I had expected.

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Gah

There ya go, @CoastalWx...you were waiting for it.

Wife is saying 3-5" at home now, but I will have to verify later this PM...was only 1.75" at 6am. I doubt we tacked on that much.

On 4/1/2024 at 6:24 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

CFSv2 ENSO probability index has 2024-25 challenging 1973-74 and 1988-89 for the strongest la nina ever: 

Jesus, we may never catch a break again.

Wow.

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

They’re clowns for a reason. If you’re mixing sn/pl the whole time with 33-34 temps kuchie and 10:1 are never happening. Especially in April with warm soil temps and coming off a high well into the 40s

Right.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep. The best is wait like 4 hrs before go and check soundings along with qpf  predictions.  UVVs into the 500 layer help lol too. It's all about the column Wilbur

I agree there...better than any model snowfall algorithm.

Just now, dendrite said:

Maybe the best there, but overall garbage. They’re always going to be closest on the sloppy edges. 

Right....but not as rancid as the garbage that the clown maps were down here.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

It ain't over up there 

High-end amounts will be like 18"...aside from like Mt Washington or something.

I agree that if you have a classic situation like Jan 2022, or Jan 2015 etc, they would be awful.

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You mean your backyard . I wouldn't use them unless like Chris said marginal column

No, I mean in the aggregate. The most accurate forecast would have been PDC throughout NE....10:1 and Kutchera were worse in CNE than PDC was in NNE. I'm not sure how you argue that. Is that the case every storm? No, but it was today.

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

You might want to wait on finals 

I don't need to wait....no one is getting 30" or close to it.

No snow tools are perfect....we need to actually forecast, but +SDC was the best guidance overall.

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think they do well for situations where the entire column is marginal with those 32-34 surface temps. Locally the temps stayed around 32-34 but it was a pure snow sounding above that. 

Fact is, they were more accurate in totality.....perfect everywhere? No. But if you had the choice of 10:1 everywhere, Kuchera or +SDC, the latter would have yielded the most accurate forecast throughout the region. Are they too light in much of your area? Sure....but I would argue better than those idiotic 30" clown maps. Hardest hit areas have like a foot with what...3-4" more coming today?

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

Like many products, good in some areas, not in others. It was terrible around here, with forecasts of 2-3" but we're easily 6+ OTG away from the coast even with compaction.

Yea, in a marginal situation, its the path of least regret.

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

On the edges not at all in the heart.

No one used them for that. Common sense dictates that heavy snow will yield more than positive depth change when its cold enough. Hell, I even said fator in Kutchera in the hills.

Positive Depth Change was largely accurate AWT.

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

4.5” new here.  Snowing sideways.  One of the better events this season 

 

I think I had you near the line of 2-5"/4-8" in n ORH CO.