40/70 Benchmark
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Posts posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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This doesn't mean you should book 70" of snowfall at LGA.....but it is what it is. The PNA should be just south of neutral in the DM mean.
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1 hour ago, bluewave said:
There has been a new relationship between the -PDO and PNA especially during the 2020s summers. This was our first July streak of 5 consecutive -2 to -4 -PDOs. There has been a very strong +PNA signal leading to the record wildfires, record heat, and drought up in Canada.
Past instances of -2 -PDOs in July were more -PNA. My guess is that this is related to the -PDO being more driven by the warmer SST anomalies than the colder ones which used to dominate -PDOs in the past.
Recent July -2 to -4 -PDOs have been more +PNA
Older -PDO below -2 in July were more -PNA
1 hour ago, snowman19 said:My guess is that the PNA is more negative during the winter than last year….2nd year -ENSO
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:And I agree, as it was strongly positive last year, but I don't think it will be strongly negative this season.
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58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
My guess is that the PNA is more negative during the winter than last year….2nd year -ENSO
And I agree, as it was strongly positive last year, but I don't think it will be strongly negative this season.
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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
My main reason is the PDO which can obviously change between now and December. Maybe I should have been clearer, not a total elimination, but it would be the very last on my analog list as of now
Yea, the PDO and PNA part ways relatively frequently, as was the case last season. This is probably why the PNA in many of my analogs isn't as negative as you seem to think.
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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
It is negligible yes, but if I’m not mistaken, the MEI is deeper into Niña mode this yearDon't get me wrong....I try to be pretty objective and back you up on plenty of takes, but you seem to be reaching here to eliminate that season from consideration altogether. The MEI hasn't been update since May, so perhaps you are mistaken. The RONI is -.40 and rising....
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2014 peaked at .52 RONI. I don't see it getting below -1.0 this season. MEI peaked at -0.5....They haven't updated since AM, but I can't imagine that is going to get much lower than the RONI.
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27 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
IMO we are more “Niña” than 13-14 was
Negligible. I seem to recall you questioning whether there was a discernible difference between ENSO neutral and weak La Nina when people were questioning whether this would become an official La Nina....is that particular take context dependent?
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22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Unless there is a very radical shift in the PDO to a Victoria mode between now and December, I would not have 13-14 as an analog. The blooming -IOD also doesn’t fit, neither does ENSOI don't necessarily agree with this. Its a good polar and ENSO analog.
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1.17".
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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:
I know that’s true…but my production the last decade makes it harder than ever to discern. I checked this morning and I have more sub 20” seasons than I do 30” seasons since 2018-19, and my average is 45-50”. I certainly have more failed epic winter patterns than failed fantasy canes. It’s exceptionally tough sledding for anything interesting lately. Tropical stuff aside I think most of us are frustrated by that.
I have my annual peak season forecast due by the 20th, and I’m still not sure what direction I’ll take. I do think we’re looking at another backloaded season though given the continued SAL/stability issues I knew we’d have months ago.
If September is warm with a WAR, we’re in the game. Otherwise, cutoff trough season in October and hybrids are probably our only shot at anything interesting.
So doesn't Miami...what is the value of that perfunctory assessment? The volume disparity makes it silly to compare. When you put things into respective regarding how anomalous the prior decade was in the opposite direction, the current drought is still largely regression attibutable. I know my 10 year average just slipped blow normal this past year....but frustrating, nonetheless.
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26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:
In fairness, it was a pretty good hit for ACK. 90mph gust iirc
In fairness, that isn't too rare in major nor' easters. It wasn't a huge deal.
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36 minutes ago, bluewave said:
Yeah, this has been the theme during this decade with the PDO values rising into the winter and spring.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.datOct 2021….-3.13……..Mar 2022….-1.67
Jul 2022....-2.64…….Jan 2023…..-1.24
Sep 2023…-2.99…….Feb 2024…..-1.33
Oct 2024…..-3.80……Mar 2025…..-1.15
Yes, this is what I was referring to.
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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:
I think what we have been seeing from that record warm pool east of Japan in the 2020s is a seasonal shift from the summer into the fall and winter. The SST anomalies have been peaking there during the summers. Then declining as we have moved into the winter.
Notice how the -PDO readings have also been following this pattern. The summer into fall 2021, 2022, and 2024 displayed a similar process. The lowest -PDO readings have occurred in the summer and fall and have risen into the winter. So the 21-22, 22-23, and 24-25 winters were all rising PDO patterns off the strongly negative values of the summer and fall.
The main theme is that this seasonal pattern has kept repeating. So the winter values can’t get high enough to reverse the PDO when it starts declining again into the summers.
The SSTs are marker for the 500mb ridging which keeps returning to the same areas. So even when we had a weaker trough east of Japan last winter, the SSTs couldn’t fully cool down. This could be related to the deep subsurface warmth there. Then there could be a feedback process between the atmosphere and SSTs perpetuating the 500mb pattern and extended record SSTs and -PDOs.
Yes, I'm not necessarily arguing for a wholescale pattern change....just a rising PDO that will be somewhat less negative.
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I lost my mind with Edouard....I was a HS kid and didn't know any better. I was so excited and ended up absolutely despondent.
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6 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:
So Ed was a nothingburger
Got it
One thing I have learned is to always assume a harder recurve with respect to systems paralleling the coast, UNLESS there is a patently obvious reason not to, such as vigorous ULL absorbing the system....which are exceptionally rare occurences. This is why major NE strikes are so exceedingly rare.
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5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
No one here said it will maintain severely negative levels. But is a solidly -PDO winter a very good bet? Absolutely
Yes.
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Just now, BarryStantonGBP said:
Were you in ed
Noone was, unless you lived in a vessel ouside of the BM. I have lived in NE my entire life, though. I remember all of the hype for what ended up being yet another wide-right.
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8 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:
Edouard redux tbh
I don't think it will come as close to New England as Edouard did.
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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:
It’s gone. Why do you do this. Give back hours of your life. Spend it with family. Go for a walk. For the love of God.
This one has never been much of a US threat.
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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page
Small sample size...look back long term and winter is clearly the path of least regret for weather enthusiasts in these parts.
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7 hours ago, Windspeed said:
Hello, yee old farts. It's been a while. Looks like Erin managed to shake off the drier air to the north by closing off a nice bubble and pocket of moist air in the 850 to 500 hpa layers with continued convective bursting near low level vorticity this past evening. It has managed to do this with relatively marginal SSTs (26°-27°C range) since leaving the Cabo Verdes. The COC will be moving into 27°+C during the daylight hours on Wednesday. Erin should continue organizing, and it's pretty clear this system will become the first Atlantic major hurricane for 2025 in a few days' time.
Downstream implications for land interaction are still too early. Granted, it may swing and miss the Eastern CONUS, but there remains some uncertainty for Bermuda and even the Canadian Maritimes depending on trough interaction. Otherwise, Erin should be a powerful CV long-tracker and ACE machine.
Agree concerning those land features. This was never much of a concern for the US IMHO.
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13 hours ago, snowman19 said:
If the tropical cyclone activity stops, those waters/SSTs off Japan are going to warm right back up again quickly. Those extremely warm waters go to depth, they aren’t just at the surface. @Bluewave showed the subsurface anomaly cross-section back in the spring I believe, they go to depthI will confidnetly bet against the PDO returning to those levels during the upcoming cold season.
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14 hours ago, GaWx said:
That means the equivalent daily NOAA PDO has risen from ~-4.25 to near -3.
Everything that I am looking at says an extreme/ record PDO at this time of year is gong to elevate percipitously as we head into winter, which isn't a shock...one direction in which to go. Obviously it will be negative this winter.
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2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:
For our friends in the Antilles, this is increasingly becoming a little close for comfort. Could be some indirect impacts there that become more direct if the south shift continues. To @40/70 Benchmark’s point earlier, that can muck things up if the ridge also ends up trending stronger or the big ULL in Canada is weaker in the long range. Still a lot to sort out here.
I'm sitting this one out regardless due to an impending trip to Africa, but I do not foresee a big US threat.
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2025-2026 ENSO
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
I think it's a no-brainer to take the under on last year....odds are two La Nina seasons with a deeply -PDO will feature an extremely +PNA.