weatherwiz

Anyways, could be a decent line that at least moves across western sections later. Curious as to how much lightning can be generated as well. One thing to watch as well is we'll see a sharp spike in dewpoints just out ahead of the line, so while instability numbers won't be eye popping we'll see rapid destabilization out ahead of the line...something that can enhance upward acceleration of parcels.

what the hell is all of this crap about some monster coastal storm next week lol.

You can compare, just not a side-to-side comparison. To compare you'd need a bit of a complex statistical analysis

Just like the GFS has a bias to overmix I also think it has a bias of going a bit too extreme under radiational cooling conditions.

Also, those forecasts are probabilistic so "technically" you can't really compare them to what happened at face value.

100% agreed.

There as actually a presentation similar to this at the Tri-State Weather conference this past Saturday.

Maybe a SYR special today? Sucks instability on Friday will be limited because those are some insane dynamics and a vigorous shortwave approaching. Maybe get a risk for some strong storms along the coast where dews could sneak into the lower 60s.

You know you've entered Fall (or Spring) when MAV/MET differ by 7-8-9°F or more on forecast high temps (particularly when a warmer than average llvl airmass is in place).

That is a very robust shortwave digging into the region with some healthy moisture in place and rather steep lapse rates. Wasn't looking at LES in this case...just more elevated/terrain enhancement.

Would not be surprised to see multiple inches of accumulating snow for ski areas on Saturday and maybe even grassy accumulation accumulations lower elevations of NNE. Wonder if the Tug hill could pull off several-plus inches

Ughhhhh I knew this was bound to happen. They’re just getting bigger and deadlier here. Adapting to our climate and just relocating from other areas. https://www.wtnh.com/news/connecticut/new-haven/venomous-spider-species-documented-in-connecticut-for-the-first-time/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_WTNH_News_8&fbclid=IwZnRzaAUzh-hleHRuA2FlbQIxMQBwZG9mBWZkaWQWUP0fgIBV4YT5gAujHlk__9yP03ilPXNydGMGYXBwX2lkCjY2Mjg1NjgzNzkAAR46RL7csvZP_EevojJ70Jc8_yzDkguN2GZP_lfF_0i9ITCVH690hW3pJK0g_w_aem_afEitbdedFZMbV3_6lCdUA

I'll never understand how cold could be "fake"

It probably came on 3-4 times overnight and about 3-4 times in the 3 hours I've been up. I don't think its very well insulated. It gets crazy hot in here once it gets above like 65-70, especially the bedroom and super chilly in the winter. Also, doesn't help that the ACs are still in the living room/bedroom window. I think both have massive spider webs and spiders attached to them so I can't take them out until they go

Frosty morning, heat kicking on all night. BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO