boulderrr Posted October 30, 2011 Share Posted October 30, 2011 18Z GFS a bit stronger: 12Z 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 I think I will probably get something with this but it doesn't look like much. Maybe a trace to one inch as it will be fairly moisture starved here when cold enough air arrives. I am more interested in the storm next Friday, but one at a time I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Thanks for starting this. WY is going to get blasted...these strong arctic fronts surging south through the state are great setups for them. I would have to think storm watches will be going up very soon in WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Thanks for starting this. WY is going to get blasted...these strong arctic fronts surging south through the state are great setups for them. I would have to think storm watches will be going up very soon in WY. Agreed, two thirds of the state is covered in the 4+ inch area of the posted image. Pretty widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Models have definitely trended snowier today for the storm on Tue night/Wednesday. 0z GFS shows 7-10" for Fort Collins to Denver. Could be a very similar storm to last week's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Winter storm watch out for the Front Range. Going to be a quick hitter...in my opinion this is a more classic arctic front than last setup. Mush less pure upslope/mesoscale banding driven and more oriented along a strong arctic front. These can be signficiant dumpers with very heavy rates. Given the lack of attention here I won't be surprised if this catches some by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Winter storm watch out for the Front Range. Going to be a quick hitter...in my opinion this is a more classic arctic front than last setup. Mush less pure upslope/mesoscale banding driven and more oriented along a strong arctic front. These can be signficiant dumpers with very heavy rates. Given the lack of attention here I won't be surprised if this catches some by surprise. 6z GFS showed the heavy rates near the Front Range, while latest NAM has them over the eastern plains. I'm thinking a quick 3-6" at this point (probably mostly in a 6 hour window early Wednesday), but a slight change could result in more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 NWS talking up the wind threat too: STRONG WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM WHICH MEANS BLOWING SNOWAND REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AREEXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND40 MPH. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ICY AND SNOWPACKED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 GFS - 12Z very slightly stronger than 6Z 10/31/11 - 6Z 10/31/11 - 12Z NAM 10/31/11 - 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 6z GFS showed the heavy rates near the Front Range, while latest NAM has them over the eastern plains. I'm thinking a quick 3-6" at this point (probably mostly in a 6 hour window early Wednesday), but a slight change could result in more. 3-6" general maybe, but there will be some 8-10" amounts possible across some of the favored areas in N flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxDude Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 3-6" general maybe, but there will be some 8-10" amounts possible across some of the favored areas in N flow. I always love to use the snowfall maps on wxcaster.com! 12z showing a pretty decent snowfall Tues Night/Weds for the Front Range/Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Might want to add w NE to this also as LBF has issued a "WINTER STORM WATCH" for parts of the panhandle and w NE. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 1257 PM CDT MON OCT 31 2011 ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND FAR WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT... .A POTENT...FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION EAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN INITIALLY WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM. BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO SNOW...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WILL PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND MAKING TRAVEL HAZARDOUS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS EAST INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. NEZ022>024-035-056>058-069-094-010400- /O.NEW.KLBF.WS.A.0005.111102T0000Z-111102T2100Z/ GARDEN-GRANT-HOOKER-ARTHUR-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-CHASE- WESTERN CHERRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSHKOSH...HYANNIS...MULLEN...ARTHUR... CHAPPELL...BIG SPRINGS...OGALLALA...GRANT...IMPERIAL...CODY... MERRIMAN...KILGORE 1157 AM MDT MON OCT 31 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * TIMING...LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...CONTINUING OFF AND ON...INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. * WIND...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THREATENING WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. TRAVEL MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 Might want to add w NE to this also as LBF has issued a "WINTER STORM WATCH" for parts of the panhandle and w NE. Done and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 looks like you guys could see some blizzard conditions tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 looks like you guys could see some blizzard conditions tomorrow. Could be some brief blizzard conditions tomorrow night/early Wednesday, especially out on the plains. A lot more wind with this system than the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugo_fran Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 HPC's Winter Weather Forecast Discussion PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 424 PM EDT MON OCT 31 2011 VALID 00Z TUE NOV 01 2011 - 00Z FRI NOV 04 2011 DAYS 1 AND 2......CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES OF WYOMING/COLORADO INTO CENTRAL HIGHPLAINS...PARTIALLY SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROUGH STARTING OFF OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PAC NW WILL DIG THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST BEFORE SWEEPING OUT INTO THE PLAINS/MS VLY. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SRN BRANCH BECOMING QUITE ACTIVE... AS UPPER DYNAMICS INTENSIFY THROUGH THE GRT BASIN BEFORE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES. IN FACT... POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL LOW COULDCLOSE OFF LATE TUES INTO WED AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CO. ASTHIS OCCURS ALOFT... A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A MASSIVE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND. THIS SHOULD SET UP AN IDEAL PATTERN FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE/OROGRAPHIC HVY SNOWFALL EVENTACROSS WY/CO INTO THE FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HPC REALLY PREFERRED A COMBINATION OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS MASSFIELDS THROUGHOUT TUES AND WED. NOW INITIALLY LL MOISTURE WILL BEPRETTY SCARCE ON TUES BUT WITH DIGGING/INTENSIFYING 500 MB TROUGHAND START OF ERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT... MODELS SHOW MEAN LAYER RH BECOMING VERY WIDESPREAD ACROSS WY... PERHAPS EVEN A NARROW FIELDOF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING TUES AFTN. EXPECT SOLID SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE SWRN CORNER OF SD/WRN NE WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL WY. THIS INCLUDES FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE BIGHORN/LARAMIE AND WIND RIVER RANGES WHERE AMOUNTS WHERE AMOUNTS VERY LIKELY WILL BE ENHANCED. THE ACTION THEN ON WED SHIFTS TO CO AND SERN WY/WRN NE... AS DIGGING SRN STREAM TROUGH W/ SOLIDMID-LEVEL LOW TRACKS ACROSS CO ENHANCING THE VERTICAL LIFT AND ERLY/ENERLY COMPONENT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A WIDENING ZONE OF 850-500MB FRONTOGENESIS FOR POSSIBLE BANDING SNOW AND ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES EARLY WED BEFORE EXPANDING DEFORMATION ZONE SHIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSIN THE CO ROCKIES W/ POSSIBLE 1 FOOT AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLE 4 TO 8INCH AMOUNTS IN THE DENVER METRO AREA. http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Woke up to a blizzard watch this morning. Going to be quite interesting early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 This is going to be a pretty awesome storm. Still surprised only a few here are talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Its pretty wild out here right now. 37 right now with a rapidly dropping temperature. Its raining, and the wind is gusting to 40mph from the NW. I don't think snow is too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Dodge City just issued a WWA for their CWA. AMA is even expecting some light accumulations for areas N near Dalhart to a dusting in Amarillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I doubt I'll see more snow than the last storm, but this one should be more fun. Should turn quickly to snow this evening, with heavy rates and strong winds with the passage of the front. Colder temps should allow plenty of stickage to the roads as well this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I doubt I'll see more snow than the last storm, but this one should be more fun. Should turn quickly to snow this evening, with heavy rates and strong winds with the passage of the front. Colder temps should allow plenty of stickage to the roads as well this time. How's the leaf situation? Are they mostly off the trees? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 How's the leaf situation? Are they mostly off the trees? There are way less leaves (and branches) on the trees than before the previous storm. The wind with this storm should also hopefully prevent the snow from accumulating too much on what leaves remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 How's the leaf situation? Are they mostly off the trees? Some leaves are still on the trees. On the other hand, you would tend to think that the last storm took out most of the weak branches in the entire area... like 100000 branches down in my city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 1, 2011 Author Share Posted November 1, 2011 NWS in Denver just upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for the immediate front range and for Denver. Blizzard Warnings southeast of Denver. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1116 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2011 .UPDATE...HAVE DECIDED TO UPDATE SOME OF THE WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPGRADED THE BLIZZARD WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ZONES 41...46 AND 47. ALSO UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZONES 35..36..39..40..45 AND 49. MODERATE TO STRONG QG ASCENT AND UPSLOPE DEEPENING TO AROUND 650 MB OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF HEAVY SNOW TO THE PALMER DIVIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR. Winter Storm WarningURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO 1054 AM MDT TUE NOV 1 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER RETURNING TO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND LINCOLN COUNTY LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A FAST MOVING AND POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY...WHILE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING ON THE PLAINS. AS EVENING TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ACROSS LINCOLN COUNTY AS WIND WILL GUST TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. AS A RESULT...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT AND LINCOLN COUNTIES INCLUDING INTERSTATE 70. * TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING...QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY MID EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR. * ACCUMULATION/WIND...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF DENVER. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR...WITH STRONGER GUSTS EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 MPH. * MAIN IMPACT...ROADS WILL BECOME ICY AND SNOWPACKED TONIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE IN AREAS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. HEAVY SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ON TREES RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. * OTHER IMPACTS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING MUCH COLDER WITH WIND CHILL READINGS DROPPING TO NEAR 10 DEGREES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 How's the leaf situation? Are they mostly off the trees? Some trees still have quite a bit, but a lot less overall than before last week's storm. I don't think we'll lose near as many branches with this one, should be a drier/lighter snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 NWS in Denver just upgraded the Winter Weather Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning for the immediate front range and for Denver. Blizzard Warnings southeast of Denver. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 I doubt I'll see more snow than the last storm, but this one should be more fun. Should turn quickly to snow this evening, with heavy rates and strong winds with the passage of the front. Colder temps should allow plenty of stickage to the roads as well this time. I am slightly confused. They downgraded us to Winter Weather Advisory for 3-6" and the weather story picture of the NWS web page shows 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hugo_fran Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Is it just me or are actual temps today a good bit colder than forecast - 38.2 currently (noon) against a forecast hi of 49 for noon (max 51)? http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Highlands%20Ranch,%20CO&hourly=1&yday=304&weekday=Tuesday http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=80124 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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