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  2. Stx_Thunder
    CAMs don’t tend to do well with MCS propagation/evolution into southern half of state this time of year (except ARWs). Latest Euro 0z run tonight has most plausible scenario for the time of year (May being the most active spring month for TX) showing pretty large MCS going all the way down to the upper coast. As long as organized activity is going on in NTX down into ETX earlier today (Thursday), with all the convective/outflow processes upstream the front should be pretty close to Houston by evening. None of the reliable models are showing it but unless shortwave energy tracks east much further north or 850mb flow veers more westerly late in the day in SETX, there shouldn’t be any reason why Houston wouldn’t get hit fairly hard as well especially coming in at the right time of day with daytime heating assistance also before the event is over (or offshore and/or LA state) by later evening. - - - It’s looking dry now for most of state Friday except down here (but everywhere for weekend into next week). Should still be able to cash in nicely once more Friday before things really start to dry out. But the growing influence from the typical furnace subtrop High out west next week might not be that strong as even latest GFS is showing some more possible MCS activity later next week, thankfully. I’m fairly convinced now, not going to have the kind of hot/rain-free persistence like last summer (except maybe NTX). Especially with any kind of EN not in picture this summer/rest of year.
  3. Today
  4. CoralRed
    Big sigh. I would like to think so but I can't say I really do.
  5. dilly84
    Love him or not, a Columbus legend is calling it a career. So long, Jym! Maybe he'll join us here on the hobby side! https://abc6onyourside.com/news/local/weather-ohio-abc6-fox28-jym-ganahl-columbus-signing-after-nearly-60-years?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2-_gOdfCZAOE73BHXcYqqhqKD5zYvBf9UyJyHUPNC8NbKFPHBEzu4hfeU_aem_Ab0SaKTVsrBXU9Yp02PFGDLJEdTsJLodob-LTUCEq37vX6NkXSv9wVJrKVjDJlnN78TqQbWcLoIwSmw6AGWBfJyg
  6. George001
    I’m not a fan of that analog because I think the strength is incorrect. 2007-2008 could be a good analog. +NAO, strong La Niña, -PDO.
  7. Rtd208
    Picked up 0.42" of rain for the day. Current temp 60
  8. Rtd208
    Picked up 0.42" of rain for the day. Current temp 60
  9. SnoSki14
    Looking at seasonal models, there will be no shortage of hot and humid weather. Once the heat kicks in, it won't let go. People will be begging for cooler days in a few weeks.
  10. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Models are in fairly good agreement that the counties just N of the Houston metro will see the heavy rain. Or, where they need it least, they get the most. HRRR has some areas where the heaviest rain has fallen getting over 7 inches. W of here in the AUS and SAT areas, enhanced for hail seems likely for storms mid-afternoon. Tornado risk as well with fairly high SigTor's on 3 km NAM in the I-35 corridor in Central Texas.
  11. GaWx
    @kdxken @Chrisrotary12 and anyone else who may be interested, the deadline to enter the AmericanWx PGA Championship pool with your five players and prediction of the winning 72 hole score to par is 7AM tomorrow. You can go to 2024 PGA Tour thread in Sports Zone forum to enter and see the scoring rules. No prizes/money. Just for fun. Three entered so far.
  12. LibertyBell
    It's been very wet going all the way back to that record precip event at the end of September last year, JFK had close to 10 inches in one day.
  13. LibertyBell
    I loved 1983 particularly for how hot that summer was, do you expect that again? What kind of a September 1983 had WOW 2010 of course too, dry and hot!
  14. donsutherland1
    The pattern following the breakdown of a strong El Niño can sometimes be quite active in the spring. 1983, 1998, and 2010 are some examples.
  15. powderfreak
    I find myself looking at it as the warm season and cold season. We are now solidly in the warm season. Summer or spring is a semantics argument. It’s moving away from looking for ways to heat the living space, to windows open or A/C. Cold or warm season… it’s a gradual transition but feels like it’s been made. Natural snow is melting off the highest elevations to patchy cover in the spruce groves, and the valley dew points are seeing more elevated lengths of time. Evenings are mild at times. And the crisp frosts are becoming rare even up here in the NNE radiational spots. Flipped to warm season. Evening dews are elevated. People notice/feel it.
  16. Stormchaserchuck1
    The global warming trend was always thought to be +PDO/El Nino.. some people have linked this recent -PDO with it, but I don't think that makes much sense. https://ibb.co/ZKLGRPC I always thought low solar was the reason.. it should be interesting to see where ENSO goes after this event..
  17. Torch Tiger
    refresher for the acatt crew. We already stage 2A tWateSatelleather F Dew Point Feeling Less than or equal to 55 Dry and comfortable Between 55 and 65 Becoming "sticky" with muggy evenings Greater than or equal to 65 A lot of moisture in the air, very humid and uncomfortable
  18. Jns2183
    Neither side cares about them. They would probably get cared about a lot more quickly if they disabled the railroads in a meaningful way running all through those areas. People would at least have to take notice Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
  19. Stormchaserchuck1
    Global precipitable water was record highest, going back to 1948, partially because of the past El Nino. It just didn't really hit us until lately. https://ibb.co/z7gCHfH We did have a wet Dec and Jan May is also usually our cloudiest month (I-95)
  20. weathafella
    Full on summer always waits till June. We get a few tastes which increase in frequency as we go forward. I’ll use ac if we get a few consecutive warm days (80+) given how warm it gets in the bedrooms.
  21. LibertyBell
    we had very heavy rain here in sw nassau a few hours ago
  22. LibertyBell
    cloud cover way above normal
  23. jm1220
    Models bring some heavier rain west, we'll see how much makes it here. So far IMBY everything's been light. But definitely a drencher E of the William Floyd. 18z GFS has NE or E winds straight through 144 hours. At the mercy of whatever the Maritimes puke up.
  24. LibertyBell
    We had heavy downpours here in sw nassau during the late afternoon too
  25. LibertyBell
    Don why do we have so many storms all over the country this spring, one right after the other? This definitely isn't normal.
  26. JenkinsJinkies
    GFS precip through the end of the month.
  27. LibertyBell
    actually like a hellish combo of the Pac NW and the Gulf Coast lol
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