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We are so lucky the indexes were what they were in the middle of Winter. The longer term (14 month) index pattern is horrid for cold.

I see where you are getting stuck, you are taking analogs too literal. There are only really 2. The mechanics of the situation don't change, it only changes the amplitude. If forcing is west-based, that's +PNA and a stronger +PNA if it's >2.0 in the west (RONI). I'll take a really, really strong +PNA. You just don't want it to get too close to the west coast, US, which is more tropically east-based

I would prefer it a bit weaker...but I don't doubt we could have had a good interlude(s) if the polar domain were not so hostile. I compare all of these analogs with a fine-tooth comb this summer and fall.

So why wouldn't the opposite produce an opposite anomaly pattern?

Agree 100%.

Also there have been no La Nina's <-2.0. If there were, I bet they would be warm if they were west-based (maybe before 1950 there were some, I'll have to check)

Warm is gonna win in this pattern, other than any rainy periods. Upper 70s- low 80s. Too warm too early for my liking. Why cant we just do 'normal' in early Spring sometimes lol. Right to late May/Early June weather. Fuck that shit.

^That world record of 134F in Death Valley from 1913 seems like low hanging fruit

If someone asked me, I'd take a repeat of 91-92 styled El Nino. the 2nd and 3rd strongest like that were 09-10 and 02-03

Orientation doesn't matter much for weak events, either.....much more disparity in weak events....ie east-based events that were colder, and west-based that were warmer.

I've heard the global temp anomaly temp today (or yesterday) is +0.897C. That's pretty crazy

Not counting one KU in the mid Atlantic....I mean above average snowfall throughout the NE and colder than average.

I think it's a combination of the fact that there is so much excess heat in extreme warm ENSO, and it impacts the Atlantic STJ in such a manner that is very hostile to high latitude blocking. I'd have to look back at the research to double check..been a minute.

I knew you would call sample size Well, once we get a big NE winter with a 2.1+ El Niño, I'll capitulate.

No argument there....highly doubt it averages negative for the season next year.

But why would the same thing change if it's 0.5 or 2.0?

Not enough examples. 91-92 is the only west-based event 2.0 or greater. 15-16 was the only basin wide. 0/1 and 0/1.. the rest were east-based

I'm not arguing the pattern doesn't look different....I'm arguing it doesn't really matter if ENSO gets that powerful.

No, until you find me a +ENSO north of 2.0 that offered a favorable outcome for winter enthusiasts, it's factual.

Most strong events have the N. Pacific low further east.. over the North Pacific High region. You can see by that composite that the N. pacific low was actually pretty west that Winter.

Most strong El Niño events give you +PNA....excessively strong El Ninio usually has a dearth if high. latitude blocking.....again, not surprising.

NOUS61 KPHI 301225 FTMDIX Message Date: Mar 30 2026 12:25:12 Critical maintenance will be conducted at KDIX through April 3. The radar will be down from approximately 12 to 21Z daily through Friday.

We are still in that +1-5 year from Solar Max window. You will say the NAO wasn't that bad last Winter, but the average of the last 14 months is very ++

That 2.0 stuff is superstition. Mechanics of something doesn't change if it gets stronger. If a car that normally drives 40mph goes 100mph, it goes 100mph, not more left or right.