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Still some dry air to overcome. And I'm guessing there are some people looking at the sounding below who have seen a model sounding, but aren't quite sure what it means, so I have put a few (hopefully) helpful tags: Red and green lines show the temperature and dewpoint respectively at any given level between the ground and the tropopause. You want those two to be together or close, to get precipitation. For good snow growth, you want the dewpoint and temperature to be together in the yellow zone, the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). DGZ has to do with temperature. There is additional info about the DGZ for a particular sounding in the box on the far bottom right. Temperature and saturation can effect snow dendrite type: You'll probably see some soundings on here today or have already seen some that shows a HUGE DGZ. Lastly we have Omega, called so because (I think) it is the greek letter used to denote forcing. I am not a mathemataizer, so here is a description:

I am about 2 miles SE of the -6 reading in Wash Co. Can confirm a -6 reading at the house this morning before leaving for work. .7 degrees shy of the record low imby of -6.7 in February 2014.

Skied at SLoaf yesterday with my college buddy commemorating our first trip there together 44 years plus a week ago. We were going to ski today but temps looked uninviting which was correct decision. Very chilly and temps dropped and wind picked up throughout the day. Happy to be wearing the full face mask. There was a big U21 race - downhill yesterday - going on with participants from US and Canada. Made me reminisce on the chairlift with some unsuspecting, captive racer about the 1984 Junior World Championship held there and skiing with some Austrian or Swiss skiers. Poor kid! Getting old! Conditions were pretty good, they have a very solid base of natural and manmade. Bubblecuffer skied well - one of their natural, steep trails off the top was very nice and well covered but on the other side of Gondi Line, Winterway was closed with stuff still sticking out of the slope. They need more natural snow.

Why so hostile? Lol We can all point to events that went north or south. But like my post above, I'm speaking greatest climo anomalies. The pattern right now with the block is quite anomalous. Maybe it will work out and maybe it won't. But I have my fears for the reasons stated.

Interesting, I feel the same way. Temperatures not dropping the way they usually do with snow cover.

As someone who still has a fully fueled generator from last weekend. I’m all in with this storm. 6 to 8 inches or bust for MBY

Mike Thomas@MikeTFox5 · 9h For those asking about a warm up...this is a tricky question as well. Strong & relentless stratospheric warming ongoing and expected to remain up near the polar region right through the first half of February, which will likely continue polar blocking and keep cold temps coming our way through at least the middle of the month. AI models offer some home with the western ridge breaking down beyond next weekend, allowing more zonal (west-to-east) pacific flow and allowing temps to soften. AI guidance suggest middle 40s possible around this time...but a lot of the other ensembles do not agree. Many are keeping 40s away until we get beyond the midpoint of the new month. That seems a little extreme in my opinion though...I think it's somewhere in between. Think we probably crack the 40°F mark the week of 2/8 but I'm not seeing anything that screams sustained above normal temperatures anytime soon.

AIGFS would result in some having a winter thaw w well above avg temps as we get into the 2nd week of February. Seems to be on its own attm.

This one feels different, no??

These two images side by side are hilarious. Massive differences

My lowest temp all week here at home has been 5.7. Low this morning was 6.4. I honestly feel sort of underwhelmed compared to what models and forecasted lows were. I know, it's a weenie comment but there were several nights that were to be below zero and at least here, it hasn't been close to that once.

Low of +2 this morning. Maybe I get a below zero reading right before midnight to keep my streak going but it looks to be too windy for me.

You're right. I should have phrased it relative to climo because I'm below and down south will likely be above after Sunday.

Mods, please pin. 23 cloudy with roads still in same shape as last Sunday!

-11 this morning.

Reflectivity

Yeah this will start showing up towards the end of February.

Could be. We were trying to figure out yesterday when we took our last measurement. I was so dead tired from snow plowing that I might have missed the last couple inches

New forecasts now confirm a Stratospheric Warming event in early-mid February, causing a Polar Vortex split and collapse. The latest predictions show a breakdown of the polar circulation, with a prolonged colder weather pattern across North America and parts of Europe, potentially lasting into early spring. https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-collapse-february-2026-stratospheric-warming-forecast-winter-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Started obs thread

I think a lot of people have Helen PTSD. I think thats why everyone went crazy at the grocery stores last week.

I’ll do the honors

Hoping the 6z euro is out to lunch for the triangle and just struggling with banding. Surely it won’t beat the crap out of all the short range guidance on totals.

Delete

Or how about the 12/26 storm that gave us a mix & didn’t trend south. That one was congrats NYC & southern NE. How did that seasonal trend work out @mitchnick ?