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Fall 2026 Medium/Long Range Pattern Thread
jaxjagman replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
Most rains we got here in a few months,its not going to beat down the drought,the next system should even be more stronger,more like a neutral tilted trough than negative,either way the LLJ is being shown to be much stronger so convectiion could help out,dont look severe,failry piss poor lapse rates -
2026-2027 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Met1985 replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Today was the freaking perfect Fall day. Had a high of 51 degrees and a low of 44 degrees. Current temp of 48. -
BWI: 5” DCA: 1” IAD: 3” RIC: 0" Tiebreaker SBY: 2"
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We lucked into one storm. Statistically it was an above average winter.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Amen brother, Amen! -
Something isn’t right here, we’re gonna find out ENSO is like a big horseshoe and giga Ninos behave like a strong La Nina.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I have to give credit where credit is due. After nearly 4 hours, every post ITT including this one has been about a random way, way out in super lala land Euro control map. That has to be a record for an hour 912 map! That’s one amazing map to command this much attention! On a related note, Happy go back to Standard Time day! I love it for getting Euro Weeklies, 0Z Euro, and all models an hour earlier more than for anything else! I mean we’re only 3 hours from the start of the 0Z GFS! -
I don’t like hyperbole early on, but I think I would be fairly shocked if the mountains get near normal snowfall this winter on composite super Nino years. Thats not to say it won’t snow, heck 235” on Mansfield is below normal. But it feels like the deck is stacked a bit, especially if it’s a slow start. It takes making up some good ground to make up for struggles in even Nov/Dec when you need to hit even monthly normal totals in Jan/Feb/Mar. Now, for NNE as a whole? The lower climo snowfall areas near population centers can rely more on several good synoptic events to get closer to normal. I think my fear up here is the daily light events struggle if it’s warm, and the 2-6” type stuff that adds up over time creates a deficit.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That certainly explains it. The Control runs are 95%+ of the time garbage. EDIT: They didn't say it was the Control run, but the "weeklies". If they're going to say it's the weeklies, they need to include weeklies Control run. Pretty disingenuous if you ask me. - Yesterday
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It’s actually rained here for a couple hrs now. Light rain, but way more than MRX had forecasted. The models lost all of the rain around Wednesday, and gradually added back in small amounts. The HRRR actually did really well with this event. The Euro was just too dry until today, when it finally found the rain that was ongoing. Now, granted it won’t amount to enough to really help with the drought, but it is nice to see more than just sprinkles.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Agree. Think of it as the OP Euro at 912 hours lol. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
jaxjagman replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Maybe its right,the Siberuian HIgh is getting broke down the next several days,this causes some significant colder intrusions in East Asia when its posistive,in a negative phase you see height rises in East China through Japan,should warm up before before Thanksgiving,but not really sure its to an extreme of what Social media is calling for in Nov as being so warm -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
roardog replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Yeah. I’m not sure a 912 hour control run is worth posting about and discussing. lol -
October 2026 General Discussion
michsnowfreak replied to SchaumburgStormer's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
9th warmest at Detroit as well with 58.3°. Interestingly, the warmest Octobers are all long ago. 1963 62.7 1947 60.3 1900 60.0 1920 59.5 1879 59.5 2021 59.4 2007 59.1 1971 58.5 2026 58.3 -
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The map above is the Euro Weeklies Control run, not the averaged weeklies. -
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Oh ill complain about them from mid to late November through March . but ill praise them during summer.
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Maybe the Ravens can get lucky in a way IF they want to move on from Jackson - That team up I95 that I lived and died with since the late 80s as a kid with 1 tv station and AM radio down here up until the past 2 seasons - yes I now actively root for them to loose each week - the JETS franchise needs a total reset or just be demoted to the CFL - The classic Jets move would be to trade a bunch of these 5 first round draft picks they have in the next two drafts for a often injured aging QB...
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Toledo had an average temperature of 58.2. It was the 9th warmest October
