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I'm one of those weirdos that tends to over anthropomorphize stuff all the time and when I saw that slide from that model run yeah, that looks just like a big 'ol Inuit mitten scooping out warm air over the continent leaving a trail for some good wet cold lol. I'm also a believer in storm track trends and when they set in it can be hard for them to break. I forget which one of the few insanely cold winters we had last decade but I remember it started with a huge super typhoon in mid Nov that translated via the N jet across the continent and left and insanely strong like 1060mb polar ridge in its wake that basically stayed for most of the winter. I remember it sucked because we froze while the storm track was suppressed way south with southern snows across MS/AL/GA into the Carolinas. Until that point we were being forecasted to have a snowy even odds cold/mild winter and had been having a decent SW/NE oriented storm track. Anyway, lol, my point before my ADD rambling set in was the storm track through most of the summer has been oriented in such a manner that one would think cutter time is at hand. We've got a Super Nino to juice things up yet we've had some pretty stout cold shots re-enforced by some deep digging lows, lots of cutoffs, right through our neck-o-the woods. As warm as this summer was (mostly in high overnight lows) we had some strong cold shots too. I seem to remember a dip into the 40's once or twice in July. Regardless I don't think we'll be lacking moisture this winter and Nino's don't necessarily mean no snow. If the storm track pattern stays put in it's current general orientation could be fun. Of course it'll be nail biters as usual IBY lol. Snow 5 miles N, rain 5 miles S and pingers on top. Enough rambling lol

Nods, fell free to delete all this junk and /or move to banter. But I'm not taking an out of the blue smartass attack laying down.

Now the OMG reaction on this post, yeah, that ones intentional.

There's a damn good reason I have had you on ignore this whole time. I wouldn't even know you made this snotty little shit post if I hadn't gotten an email notification about it. Honestly, it's amusing I apparently live rent free in your head? I barely post here. Sorry I don't give you easy fodder for boner jokes and causal sexism like everyone else, I guess ...

Howard. Calm the fuck down, first of all. Since apparently you're passively aggressively directing this comment at me, I will take the time to explain to you. The "say what" face was not intended as snark. In fact, I was, and am, intrigued by your prediction. So please grow a thicker skin and stop assuming everyone is out to get you or mock you, at least all the time. I will wait for my apology.

Excuse me ass? Why have I been mentioned here?

DT

And yet Sep 2020 happened, the second earliest snowfall on record for Denver!

I think he takes off tonight. .

Cyan ring there. That’s significant.

Don’t worry @AlexD1990 was never the brightest bulb in the batch.

Does anyone know who won the Caps- Penguins game tonight? Asking for a friend.

31.1 this AM....fake cold, real frost.

Which part did CC contribute to? All of it....the sole purpose of ENSO is to redistribute heat, so the rapid warming of the climate is acutely relevant in that respect.

Yeah recon just found 988, so still fairly decent intensification which is quite impressive given how sheared it looks Also a nice little core evident on microwave:

Not the best looking symmetry there. Appears it may have a very small window for intensification, then it's going to struggle. OHC can only do so much. I'd say major status will be difficult at this point.

At least someone is getting some damage these days.

I have to replace all of the ones you’re cutting

Who used to start this thread in August ?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl&season=2026

Yes but im asking about which part of the el nino the absolute tempature (oni) or the gradients and atmospheric response ( mei eqsoi roni)

Great tweet from Andy

That climate change isn't playing a part in this El Nino...the immense OHC that has built up in the west Pacific has absolutely played a rpole in trggiering this response.