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LOL, tru ...guess I was thinking along the dopey lines of losing winters for 85/60 chamber of commies.

I'm not at 40N, but with being at 39.92N, I've experienced 1 AN snowfall here since 2019. 20/21 was it. 21/22 BWI beat as I totally missed the 1/22 event. Basically, the Niñas, save 1, have been better to my E and NE, while the 23/24 Niño sucked for all.

No thanks...we'd have an ice cap while tanning.

Curry added, "This prediction is in contrast to the recently released IPCC AR5 Report that projects an imminent resumption of the warming, likely to be in the range of a 0.3 to 0.7 degree Celsius rise in global mean surface temperature from 2016 to 2035." the ipcc wound up being too conservative. lol

I love Hawaii for being at the same time a hydrologist nightmare and heaven. the duality of existence in 3 infographs Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

yeah mid 20th century lull came from sulfur which blocks solar radiation.

It appears a very small area of +11C has been detected in the ENSO subsurfaces. Jesus.

Heh... too bad we couldn't move the snow temperature from 32 to 52, huh

did you see some of the rain totals?? I downloaded a bunch of the networks and saw many 20" to 40" totals. Multiple hours of 2"-5" per hour rates. what's nuts is unless those gauges are weighing gauges, which only a few are, those totals are definite underestimates due to the nature of tipping bucket rain gauges when you have heavy rain and wind Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

price is right losing horn

https://sustainability.gatech.edu/hg/news/2013/10/10/stadium-waves-could-explain-lull-global-warming “The stadium wave signal predicts that the current pause in global warming could extend into the 2030s," said Wyatt, an independent scientist after having earned her Ph.D. from the University of Colorado in 2012.

I bet 72/52 may even feel a bit chilly to some after recent acclimation biasing -

I bet tomorrow will be yet another almost 100% cloudy, ridiculously muggy day.

Well here in SC, we been knocking on the door of 100 deg or higher for quite some time. 90 would feel pretty good right now. Yes, I am stunned I wrote that, and mildly sad.

I think today is beautiful, but this is COC now?

the hypothesis that your username is based on fell apart 10 years ago

Thanks! Mike, that is really the crux of the discussion and I think we've arrived at the same place. "The magnitude of the adjustment is inferred, but not well documented in the sense that it has been verified by field measurements" - that is precisely the claim I've been making, and I appreciate you putting it plainly rather than trying to make me prove it. And thank you for the two references. Parallel observation is the gold standard and I hadn't seen either paper. Vincent 2018 is the one I want most - 88 site pairs with five-year overlaps quantifying how much uncertainty homogenisation introduces against directly measured ground truth is exactly the number missing from this discussion. If the answer is small, that's a real argument for confidence in the method that isn't an appeal to benchmarks on synthetic networks. If it's large, that's worth knowing too. Either way it's measured rather than modelled.

Another Flood Watch, been the summer of flood watches and brown patch. I bet they expand the Flood Watch SW later today. Flood Watch National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ Issued by National Weather Service New York NY 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 DEZ001-NJZ009-010-012>022-025>027-PAZ070-071-101>106-200900- /O.NEW.KPHI.FA.A.0008.260820T1600Z-260821T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ New Castle-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington- Ocean-Cumberland-Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester- Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Lower Bucks- Including the cities of Camden, Flemington, Oxford, West Chester, Pennsville, Trenton, Perkasie, Wilmington, Collegeville, Doylestown, Lansdale, New Brunswick, Kennett Square, Media, Sandy Hook, Chalfont, Atlantic City, Pottstown, Philadelphia, Norristown, Morrisville, Wharton State Forest, Cherry Hill, Hammonton, Honey Brook, Moorestown, Long Beach Island, Somerville, Mount Holly, Jackson, Millville, Glassboro, and Freehold 208 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northern Delaware, including the following area, New Castle, New Jersey, including the following areas, Atlantic, Camden, Coastal Atlantic, Coastal Ocean, Cumberland, Eastern Monmouth, Gloucester, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Northwestern Burlington, Ocean, Salem, Somerset, Southeastern Burlington and Western Monmouth, and southeast Pennsylvania, including the following areas, Delaware, Eastern Chester, Eastern Montgomery, Lower Bucks, Philadelphia, Upper Bucks, Western Chester and Western Montgomery. * WHEN...From Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area beginning Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening. Rainfall rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches which could cause flash flooding. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ DeSilva

When did the poster move there? Always lived in Burlington

Its 2:15 P.M. and not even 90 in SE Wake Is there a polar vortex on the way?

Bob likely had several spinners in SE MA and CC, but this was two years before the 88D was installed and prior to the NWS MAR (Modernization and Restructuring) in the mid 90s. Documentation of spinners in the NEUS prior to this time? I was not impressed. It was not nearly as systematic and detailed as it is now. Also, the sheer scale of the HU wind damage likely precluded any tor investigations for Bob. Look at this statement from the PVD WSO a few days after Gloria (attached). First, @weatherwiz proby be like, "This is blasphemy! They did not officially counts these! EVERY spinner in New England is a BIG DEAL!" Second, this proves my point about the practices in these days. They had valid and reliable tor reports, but chose to "punt" and do this instead. These tors here do not show up in NCEI Storm Data, so they are not part of the official record. 5 tor reports here, that is significant. How many single days have 5 tors in New England, let any tor in RI? Going back to 1950, up until Gloria, there were only 2 official tors I think in RI in Storm Data, and there were 3 reports from Gloria alone. That is huge from a climo standpoint! Side note: The following year, RI was "vindicated." You had this highly visible spout in Narraganset Bay just offshore of Bristol on July 3, 1986 (not the 8th as said here), and clearly seen from the PVD airport. https://www.pinterest.com/pin/july-8-1986-bristol-rhode-island-narragansett-bay--63894888436120341/ And then RI 3 spinners Aug 7-8, 1986, including an F2 in downtown PVD!

Yes. He apparently believes it's fake news.

85/66 An amazing pool or Beach day, but for those of us who work outside all day, definitely not COC.

The tropics have expanded more to accommodate heating - this is balancing the wholesale integrated PV=nrT ideal gas state. Increasing the temp --> increases either P, V or both, on the left side of the equation. That expansion is the Hadley Cell ... But this is not linear. Generally, gases expand more significantly the higher temperature. Thus, the colder Arctic domain can increase more temperature, before it begins to expand ... The atmosphere is free to expand in the horizontal and upward direction. It's obviously not expanding through the ground... The disproportionate expansion at higher temperatures thus causes the HC expansion, and the temperature only shows a more modest rise - it's a trade off. More volume as thermal energy is increasing, the register of the actual kinetic temperature is slowed. If the tropics were in a closed container, it'd have risen more than what is being measured.