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I believe Liberty has a serious allergy issue. Heaven bless him, he’ll certainly make up for his posting absence when he’s back. It been quite a while since I’ve seen a post from Will Rutgers. Is he okay? Stay well all. ……

591 dam on Christmas is the perfect icing on the cake of a disastrous stretch. I'm skiing out west in mid-January so might as well just give up at this point and wear speedos for Santa and return the cold to the Rockies.

I was holding out hope, but I’ve seen enough. I’m so disappointed. Can’t believe the boning yet again.

That’s 00z Here’s 12z

Just a little love is enough for me. It's not the size of the ship, it's the motion in the ocean.

BTW, Larry's idea is that winter's worst is from late January into March...and rough at that. Gotta run. Sorry, I hadn't posted much this morning. Dear Facebook, as I was pulling out of the garage I ran over a can full of blue paint. It exploded under my truck. I didn't know it until I drove around my cul de sac - twice! I got to scrub lots of asphalt and the garage floor. Meanwhile, I had to do a NASCAR fast wash down of the truck in order to get it on the road for one of my kids. Anyway, BN heights(aqua blue...don't even get me started on how that color wound up in paint storage) went all over the place!!! Maybe it is some kind of sign. Trust me, I would rather be looking at raging warm weather models. Haha. Don't have sympathy. Just know if you are having that kind of day...you are not alone!!!

There’s a college football thread for those who don’t know and are interested that could use more discussion like this:

SO TRUE! This isn't long range anymore, now in medium range with the torch.. All this BS with the coldest air on the globe, December to remember... How's this look for cold ? 7 day anomaly over the US Dec 17-24..

Well we had Will and Ryan say it looked decent…so then they ousted the precip shield and it was ok. But whatever.

That is on the heels of very wet years. Everything balances out.

Especially when it’s trended in the right direction for us. .

I think the best thing about December ending on the 18th, is all these idiotic twitter Mets can eat shit.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGT_0z/ensloopnew.html appears really only 1 member supports ... P026 But ..whatever. That thing has about as much chance verifying as any given D13 bomb does. Basically none

OTH, if January and Feb got to pot....my winter forecast from June scores yet again. LOL. FTR, I hope it doesn't verify. I think Larry Cosgrove nailed this seasonal outlook with the exception of the first 2.5 weeks of December being cold. I strongly encourage everyone to find him on FB and read that seasonal outlook. He has been zigging while everyone else has been zagging. If he is right, and I have no reason to think he isn't, we will all be happy by the end of Feb. But as Larry noted, patience will be king this winter. Just imagine this pattern, but with January cold forcing its way southeast. What happens in November(and early December), the winter often remembers.

looks great

The EPO sucks, the WPO continues to be good...as Don has posted in the main ENSO threat a few times, in those situations the WPO often wins out...may be why we are now seeing the fighting back and forth on ensembles. Would help if the AO/NAO were more negative though

Not having wind was the key. We had a breeze off the sound all night and were about the only place in the island that didn't get below 20 (although technically we did if you have confidence in the 19.9° that my sensor reported). Without that breeze, the low single number dewpoints would have resulted in much lower temperatures IMBY. Orient has around 18 miles more latitude, but that usually means nothing under high pressure. It's all wind, elevation, and water exposure (or a combination). For those less familiar with LI geography, Orient Point is 2 or 3 miles farther north than Suffern NY. Roughly on a line with Ossining and Bridgeport.

Just seems weak based on precip. Doesn’t give anybody a ton of love.

Been awhile since we’ve had a true Nowcast event like this.

Does it have it but to north on Sunday?

Cancel winter at your own peril on Dec 9th. It's a Mid Atlantic forum tradition which I don't partake in. Also, remember when I "canceled" the cold to start December? How well did that work out? I do think we see some warmth after the 20th. Is it a pattern change? It could be, but a 2-3 week pattern relaxation seems about right. The 12z Euro actually looks decent. Cold to the end of the run. The MJO is all over the place. I think there is convection in a lot of areas which is producing conflicting signals. John noted that yesterday. The plots at CPC are to the left of center, but chose your own adventure. The MJO has managed to loop back barely to 7 in the COD. I would guess it comes back around to 8. It normally goes counter clockwise. Why? Because the weather moves from west to east. Unless that changes, it doesn't really make long term transits in reverse. And my broken record advice...climatology does not support much snow at this time of year in the valleys. Enjoy being in the game in early December - that is a bonus for all bu the 1960s and a handle of winters since then. FTR, I have sat through many early December Christmas parade in short sleeves!

You just love being wrong. Its amazing.

No disagreement. We often see the same in the NCAA tournament with numerous 10+ loss teams making it. I guess they will be the NAM of the CFP.

I think this goes to show that even ensembles have their biases and limitations. At that range, it's all we really have but these patterns we have been in, sometimes smoothing and just averaging isn't really going to tell the true story. But at that range...nothing else we can really do or utilize so just have to roll with it and proceed with caution.

Most of us do that. Not like I get pumped for a CT special.