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0Z Euro has landfall near Biloxi ~8AM CDT Sat at 986 mb.

00z HAFS suites are significantly stronger versus 18z. Intensification is faster, with a major hurricane down into the 940s passing east of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Both still show disruption from increasing shear by landfall, but obviously, this would be troubling for surge impacts along the Mississippi, Alabama, and western Panhandle coastline.

The 0Z UKMET landfalls at Mobile at 987 mb ~4AM CDT Sat, which is weaker than its lowest SLP of 978 mb 12 hours earlier in the N Gulf. The center then moves N over W AL before turning left into EC MS and then NE MS. Beneficial rains fall over much of the SE.

Already down to 43. Probably gonna hit 38 here tonight.

interesting setup next Tuesday on GFS

With the new year two months away... Does someone take up the mantle in his honor for the Roger Smith Memorial Forecast Challenge?... (And may he Rest in Peace) Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk

already 36° so frost seems imminent in the morning.

Intense bursting of convection now over the NHC's 10PM CDT advisory position:

Every guy coming out of the Brewers' bullpen throws like 500 mph. Jesus.

Icon brings the rain in by midday Sunday. The gfs even earlier. In fact its over by midnight

Began as a depression in the E-pac that dissipated, then made a sudden comeback and instantly began threatening the Big Island almost a week later

recent mountain web cams

The VERY definition of a small window! I was spot on with this part of the peak season forecast.

strange Hurricane Nolo

Watch out Gulf Coast! Another tropical system will impact somewhere between New Orleans and Pensacola on Oct 10 with 7 to 12 inches of rain! Welcome to a strong Nino! It's going to be heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain after heavy rain in the Southeast for at least the next 8 months. Soils will become hypersaturated then floods will occur and not have time to recede. Entire neighborhoods will be inundated and stay that way well into 2027. The Southeast is going to be particularly hard-hit by way too much rain and flooding will persist.

44/39

I wish it was the Tigers...but enjoy!!!

Back on track...remnant rain looking like a high likelihood now for the region as this rounds the eastward shifting high. Perhaps, there may be a severe risk too if this tracks to the west?

An ancient Chinese curse once said "May you live in interesting times."

Oh for sure. This is something a shocking number of people cant seem to grasp- that a mild seasonal mean doesnt mean no cold blasts or below avg days, it just means fewer.

Remains a TD at 11pm, but the discussion makes it sound like they may upgrade to TS shortly once this ASCAT pass comes in

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092026 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026 The convective organization of the depression has not changed much since the prior advisory. Much of the associated deep convection is displaced slightly to the north of the estimated surface center, but recently a new convective burst has emerged closer to this location. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for now, consistent with the latest T2.0 Dvorak classification from TAFB. An ASCAT-C pass is expected to arrive shortly after this advisory issuance and will be helpful in reassessing the position and intensity of the system. The depression is moving slowly eastward (080/4 kt) within weak steering currents to the south of an upper trough over the southeastern United States. The track models are in good agreement that the system should move eastward to east-northeastward through Thursday while passing to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. While the center is forecast to remain well offshore, its passage will likely produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. A turn toward the northeast and north is predicted by Friday as the system moves within the flow between a shortwave trough over Texas and a strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic. There remains significant along- and cross-track spread in the track guidance regarding this northward turn, with the AI-based models on the right side of the envelope and generally faster than the physics-based guidance. The updated NHC forecast is slower than the previous one from 48-96 h to bring it closer to the latest corrected consensus (HCCA), but remains on the fast and right side of the latest models. Users should closely monitor forecast updates given the below-average confidence in this forecast. High oceanic heat content, moist mid-levels, and upper-level divergence should allow the compact system to intensify during the next few days. The only limiting factor appears to be southwesterly vertical wind shear, which is forecast to strengthen later this week as the system approaches the northern Gulf Coast. Most skillful models show the system becoming a hurricane over the central Gulf, and the latest forecast shows a similar rate of intensification and peak intensity as the prior forecast, generally following the more aggressive Google DeepMind and HCCA aids. Due to strong shear, it is likely that the system peaks in strength before reaching the coast as a hurricane. The cyclone is also expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast, and the anticipated convective and motion asymmetries will likely cause rain and wind impacts to extend far from the center on the eastern side of the storm. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast, and watches could be required on Wednesday. Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. 2. The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast Friday into the weekend. Flash and urban flooding, along with isolated river flooding, will be possible. 3. Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico: The depression is expected to strengthen and could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portion of the Yucatan Peninsula in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.1N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.5N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 23.2N 91.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.3N 89.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 26.1N 88.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 28.8N 88.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 34.1N 88.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0000Z 39.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Reinhart