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Judging by recent model runs, the offshore track looks to be off the books. Looks like some significant impacts for our area. The coast is taking a beating with erosion, not a good sign so early in the season.

euro selling decent action late next week

First frost this am, Got down to 35.4°F, Coldest so far this fall.

Correct..

It will have some tropical characteristics, but it’s generated from baroclinic forcing. There might appear to be an eye, but that’s just dry air near the center. It’s a typical nor’easter that’s being enhanced because of warm SST and proximity to the Gulf Stream. So while it might look like a tropical storm the physics behind it are far different.

That would be some good wind on LI and NJ tomorrow afternoon...probably some significant coastal flooding too

Looks like it will go into NJ

NAM is pretty far west..

Big change

Convective models will go wild in these setups.

Yeah ...last night with a nearly missed frost here. 37 ping temp but it appeared to really hover around 38 ...whoosk. Chilly. Pretty sure this is ahead of schedule against conventional climatology, ... definitely is so against relative climo associated with CC! 58 now so explosive recovery I can already see the models festering in their schemes to create a snow chance in October ... before the compression of winter allows NINO to take over for whatever that's gonna entail ... Fun year for weather incoming. Doesn't say jack about whether that's coming with winter d-dripper's withdraw symptoms in mind, however

Not tropical, but perhaps the closest to a tropical impact we may see this year

HRRR looks pretty cool, but HRRR at 48 hrs.. so idk

NAM is a fairly significant event for the coast

Yep much further west so far

NAM looks west through about hour 20

HRRRR gone wild

Definitely part of it. Also, the game can be rescheduled. Not a huge deal

Last weekend our in town flag football program cancelled all games on Saturday afternoon, they play on Sunday morning. Yet, our soccer club got every game in. I completely agree on how soft society has gotten. I run our soccer club, when we have rain forecast I must get 5-8 emails / texts asking "it's wet out, are we really playing". Just go sign your kid up for Rubics cube classes.

It's more about the travel to the venue. Seems kinda an unnecessary risk to take when the winds are 50-65mph. boomer take

I know, but our sue-happy society has no limits Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

Yeah 57° with the wind feels a lot cooler. Looking and feeling like fall for sure.

Yup. I wouldn't have made a thread if there wasn't the potential for this to be a significant/damaging event in part of the sub.

Winds along the NJ beaches currently gusting between 30 and 40 mph. Winds have been onshore for a few days and water has been piling up. With model trends over the last 12-24 hours I'd say the threat of major coastal impacts has ticked up. Minor to moderate coastal flooding / beach erosion seems like a given at this point. Wind gusts could reach 50 mph before all is said and done along NJ coast and Long Island. Eastern LI maybe higher. Jersey shore and LI Sound favored for most significant coastal impacts. Depending on wind trajectories this is one of those events where water could pile westward across LI Sound. Rainfall totals still an enigma as to what areas get the highest totals and how much that might be.

NAM looks a bit further west at hour 18