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At this point im following the rule I posted above and expecting the 12k nam, or possibly even worse assuming it keeps trending. Anything better than that solution will leave me surprised and elated.

Luckily its the ICON showing that... for now

HRRR? I know it’s far out for it but…

RGEM looked like it held serve. Bottom line is we're going to be paying close attention to the oncoming snow shield early Sun morning and hoping it comes in like a wall. Shredded crap and we might barely make it to the low end of forecasts (I'm talking for I-80, city and coastal areas). The wraparound stuff on Monday to me looks like a longshot and again something that would favor SNE. if the primary drives that far N and wrecks the mid levels, we just get the dry slot and whatever coastal redevelopment would be too far north. It's very unlikely this will be the lame usual SWFE but if you're expecting 12"+ in the city I'd start preparing for disappointment.

Can confirm that was a bad ice storm.

Let’s be honest, most of the models you don’t like (I also hate what I saw) are the lowest of the JV suite.

18z Canadian.

Sign. Me. Up

All that and my house is still in the blue snow,so is upper manhattan. The type of storm that cuts along i-95/north snow..south/ice.

Bro, no. I'm at work from 8 pm Sat., to 8 pm. Mon. I want to go home at some point.

I rode the HRRR/RGEM combo to victory last weekend (go figure?). I'll ride it again this weekend

nam could be one of those NAM'd runs but opposite. That model isn't reliable!

I hope Nam is wrong because this will be a nasty ice event here. Surface temps aren't budging away from the coast and will probably verify colder than models show.

Can’t catch a break. Rain is slowly making its way into the conversation, especially for LI. Hard to believe given the arctic airmass ahead of it, but we’ve seen this happen before. Just goes to show that getting the perfect storm is nearly impossible for the immediate coast.

Ok rgem calms my soul some

Been consistent for a few runs now and pretty much matches euro.

That's candy for a strong SWFE. It can rain in the single digits.

RGEM is fine, stops the bleeding for now.

I had hoped 12z meant we finally stopped the bleeding. But what’s come out so far 18z resumed what had been the trend prior to 12z and in most cases lost all progress from 12z and ended worse than their 6z runs! hopefully rgem/gfs/euro come in bucking this trend but so far a major amp trend with the primary across 18z

Seems like a pretty consistent array of outcomes that fall within the WSW of 7-14” of snow and sleet for DC from SE to NW and the ultimate figure will rest on how quickly we transition and where the banding sets up.

Actually I thought one of those 850 plots someone showed a page or two ago showed the primary at 18Z pushing notably farther north, like up toward the Ohio River in WV, there about, with a broad closed extension north and south through there. Whereas it was weaker and farther south at 12Z. I think it was the RRFS? Either way...I am not saying that's going to be correct, but clearly some of the models are (perhaps the NAM as well, maybe not so much the globals?) doing that.

1/23 18z ICON total QPF storm Total Snow / Sleet / Frz rain:

On the very slightly brighter side, Reggie improved slightly for most of NJ.