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  2. SnowenOutThere
    I suppose memorable is a sliding scale. I didn’t mean to imply we’ll see a widespread tornado or severe outbreak, but I think it might be a day where we reference it by date in the future when discussing upcoming severe systems.
  3. yoda
  4. Psychguy
    Tornado watch just issued.
  5. NJwx85
    Tornado Watch
  6. high risk
    It's going to be an active day for sure, but I'm not sure I'm ready to say that it will be memorable. You're spot on about the high end instability, but while the shear is good, low-level shear is marginal and might actually decrease through the afternoon as the warm front advances to the northeast.
  7. Voyager
    Yeah, it got better here too Is the rain more widespread that originally forecast? I thought there would be a distinct lull, and even potential clearing between the first round, and what comes later, but looking at radar, clouds and rain still stretch across most of the central part of the state from southwest to northeast.
  8. AlexD1990
    Interestingly, stops at AA county
  9. roardog
    I feel like there’s just been a lack of typhoons in general. The entire Pacific has been very quiet for years if my memory is correct, even record low at times. So if we get an active Pacific season like snowman keeps saying then that is another thing that’s different than recent years.
  10. AlexD1990
    Radarscope just lit up with a tornado watch
  11. 87storms
    One of the more humid days I’ve experienced here.
  12. SolidIcewx
    Ive mowed only once in the last 5-6 weeks
  13. 87storms
    Deep thunder in the distance. Had to cut my hoops sesh short bc quite frankly I don’t like the idea of the smoke hiding the lightning. The grass here is mostly green…kinda wild seeing others to the east struggling to get precip.
  14. MN Transplant
    92/79 for a 109 HI
  15. high risk
    Time for that box, SPC.... Wind profiles definitely favor rotation today. Whether the rotation can be achieved at low levels is less clear.
  16. Ginx snewx
    Smoke um if ya got um
  17. SnowenOutThere
    I think we may be in the best severe setup of the year. We’re over 5000 CAPE, have 40 kt 0-6km shear, and okay enough ML lapse rates. There’s even 100+ surface helicity according to mesoanalysis! The smoke seems to also be inhibiting storm crowding by keeping or LL lapse rates down too. The storms now popping up on radar all have the bean look of supercellular development. We may be in for a memorable day. @vortex95 @high risk@WxUSAF@wxmeddler would love to hear your updated thoughts as storms begin firing! Also, just checked and our composite indices are crazy! We’re at 8 in Nova for supercells and 1 for sig tor (2 east of Baltimore)
  18. NEG NAO
    there is not going to be any clearing north of Trenton in NJ this afternoon - look at radar - all the clearing and building unstable air will be Trenton and points east and south and thats why I think those areas will get the most out of round 2 starting later today and tonight
  19. bluewave
    The main expansion mostly occurred following the 2015-2016 super El Niño with the big global temperature jump to a much higher baseline. It’s part of the reason that the ridges have been more impressive than the troughs as the planet warms regardless of the ENSO phase. The mid-latitude ridge growth has been driving the persistent -PDO/-AMO SST patterns. But there could be a feedback process at work between the ocean and atmosphere. We can notice the Aleutian low weakening since the 1980s with the super El Niños.
  20. WinterWolf
    Ahhh ok…makes sense now. Thanks Hippy.
  21. SI Mailman
    I took my lunch break. Looks like I’ll be taking a second lunch break soon
  22. NavarreDon
    We have orange, ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However, the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent. .
  23. Santa Claus
    remember your creed soldier
  24. EastCoast NPZ
    And another classic miss from SW to NE. Lots of thunder, wind, not enough rain to wet the ground and 1 mile north gets pummelled.
  25. SnoSki14
    It's toast for this region. It's already nearly 2pm
  26. midatlanticweather
    Strike out of the blue (well haze today) I got one around July 4th that lit up the outside even with the sunshine. A year ago one struck behind the neighbor's house and fired the well pump. That one there is furthest one I have seen from the main cell, maybe a storm is trying to form there
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