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After seeing the 3 major ens systems, pretty safe to say the gfs op was on acid that run.

There is practically zero support across any of the 3 major ensembles for the Jan 15 system. Those members that do have a slp south of say 40n swing it way off the coast and harmlessly ots. Pretty safe to say the gfs is an outlier here, but I also think realistically most knew this tho we always hold hope for the best.

I posted this on the 12/27 Winter is going to take a brief break after this BS first of the year storm of only 1-3 inches if we are really lucky. I see no snowstorms until after the 15th and it will warm up into the upper 40's to 50's . I do think we will pay the piper for this brief warm up by Marin Luther Kings day-- seems to be the pattern the last 5 years. All I can say is the drought situation in our area is only going to worsen as the Gulf storm production is shut down for business. Believe me, dried up wells and sinkhole formation with dropping groundwater tables with waterline breaks galore will be the talk of the town in the next three weeks as the ground starts to thaw out with what little moisture is in it. The base flows of the creeks will begin to drop again too. We really need a 96 type of storm event asap. Still holding--------

Nothing to show at all on the 0Z Euro - no snowfall and little precip after this weekend throughout the entire run

Well at least we are going into a cold pattern again. PNA is changing to positive (it still hasn't been positive a single day this Winter - since Dec 1) Which is supported by the ENSO subsurface - I have found when warm water makes it east of the dateline, +PNA is more likely to occur. Kelvin waves impact the N. Pacific pattern, my theory. I think we'll have some good shots at snowstorm when the new pattern sets in, this early stuff is the thread the needle, trough is still progressive and it's unlikely that we'll get 18 hours of rain, then a blizzard on the backend with how dry the pattern has been. I think later on - last week of January and maybe going into Feb we will have some high probability snowstorm chances

Just like last year, and probably more so, southern Canada continues to get crushed. Thanks La Niña.

Time is running out? Lol we got 6 to 7 days before the 1st one and 200+ hours before no 2.. we got plenty of time

Euro ai isn’t as bad. Thermals are iffy but idk much about how these ai models are doing with those details. Decent snow in the mountains for the 2nd one. Let’s see how the EPS looks compared to the OP.

Welp…certainly wouldn’t be surprising as that’s been par for the course for years now but man that would stink given how high the potential is with the overall setup.

70 and sunny incoming. You all thought it was gonna snow here? LOL.

Well another awful night of modeling and time is running out

TORCH!

Euro keeps the northern stream in the way.

Euro went to the crapper. The northern stream is screwing us again.

they call the euro dr. no for a reason

But can already tell, Euro is a whole lot of nothing. For both.

You don't think he wasn't watching?

wtf is up with these skipping panels on the models lately. SV is particularly bad with the GFS. goes from like 210 to 252

WB 0Z EURO AI is closer for storm 1.

AH, you show up for the bad stuff

Geez not even close

50s right up to MHT

euro is a miss for jan 15

The Euro AI solution is closest to the GFS except it doesn't become a wrapped up bomb along the coast like the GFS and lacking the dynamics to draw in the colder air to produce frozen it is mainly rain right along the coast

Looks like the EuroAI likes the inland route for storm 2.