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  2. Hoth
    I don’t know what folks are complaining about. It’s spectacular today. Top 5 of the year.
  3. George001
    Interesting, so if you adjust for the Euros +0.7 ONI warm bias for non nino winters, that would bump the ONI from roughly -0.3 to -1, so the difference between cold neutral and a moderate Niña. Especially for DTs forecasting area (lower Mid Atlantic), I would assume the difference between a cold neutral and moderate Niña would be somewhat significant
  4. Torch Tiger
    Not a terrible day here, just not the summer feel we all want.
  5. George001
    Yeah I’m not a DT fan. I am of the opinion that he is calling off the Nina way too early, the European model has a warm bias (roughly .6 ONI based on GAwx’s post). So it will overestimate the strength of Nino’s and underestimate the strength of Nina’s.
  6. powderfreak
    Gotcha, I just got the sense from some of the posts that people expect more warmth this time of year. However, guess when the first 7 days of June starts sustained +7 to +8 at BDL and ORH, you start thinking that’s normal. Then a “normal” day near average feels like it’s way below the set baseline. Its pretty crazy that we get a deep UL trough and it just cools off the +8 to 0 and everyone is like wow this weekend was chilly. The highs at ORH and Kevin’s should barely be clearing 70F this time of year as a baseline and BDL record lows are still in the 30s. Feels like it would take an act of god to get a min of 38F at BDL in June, ha.
  7. HIPPYVALLEY
    It was a pretty nice day in the valley. Mix of sun and clouds, 72° with a breeze. Climo.
  8. Bubbler86
    ITT has already banged 2-3 90's. GFS says no heat wave until late June which is a bit surprising.
  9. Today
  10. Torch Tiger
    Yeah temp is near normal or a tick above, but it's been somewhat cloudy and the air is very very dry. When the sun pops out it feels mild, outside of that it's kinda crap.
  11. Roger Smith
    I will add you in, would be ineligible for a contest win but will rank it anyway.
  12. KAOS
    Create new <script src="js/Radar.js"></script> by appending existing <script src="js/WeatherFetching.js"></script> with... window.location.href = "https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_"+mapSettings; Edit existing index.html to create a new radar.html file utilizing Radar.js by adding the following... <head> <link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="css/radar.css"> </head> This works locally, I will upload the files to the repository to ensure that it can be accessed remotely. Link to follow...
  13. yoda
    90s coming next week so we enjoy while we can
  14. nycwinter
    looking forward to a exciting tropical season..
  15. raindancewx
    Nino 3.4 was 28.25C in May. The years coming off an El Nino winter that are with 0.2C of that (28.05-28.45C) are: 1958, 1969 - El Nino 2005, 2016 - La Nina conditions observed briefly 1980, 1983, 1987, 1998, 2019 are all following El Nino (ish) but either a bit too warm/cool or don't go to La Ninas. 1980, 1983, 1998, 2005, 2010, 2016 look ~correct as a blend for estimating the La Nina strength at the moment. 26.32 + 26.01 + 25.08 + 25.80 + 25.22 + 26.3 --> 25.78C in DJF Keep in mind, none of Dec-Feb periods in 3.4 have finished below 25.5C since 2010-11. The 2020-21 La Nina had an Oct-Dec with all three months colder than 25.5C, but it faded fast. I expect 25.8 - 26.2 for DJF, with a colder peak in Oct-Dec or Nov-Jan, but we'll see.
  16. KAOS
    Will be adding "secret" link to full screen hi-rez location specific nws radar via intellicast geolocation website emulator interface.
  17. powderfreak
    BOS normal 73F, hit at least 75F today. It’s wild that people think this is cool for the time of year. We’ve lost touch with reality given we are used to it always being an unmitigated torch.
  18. vastateofmind
    Please send some pics from that beautiful part of the world.
  19. powderfreak
    BDL’s average high right now is 77F. Today it hit at least 78F there. So today could be a tick above normal in CT, and all of you guys seemingly talking about it’s chilly or not summer, ha. It’s not even a “cool” day relatively speaking.
  20. donsutherland1
    I suspect that NYC is 2 or 3 weeks away from the onset of a significantly hot period.
  21. WxWatcher007
    Normally at this time of year I’d favor the EPAC because of climatology, but this setup looks to favor (using that term loosely) the Gulf. Shear looks too strong in the EPAC and the focal point of moisture is ejected from the Caribbean into the Gulf. There are some GEFS lows tucked along the Mexico coast, but the signal over the Gulf is unimpeded and far stronger, even on the EPS now. It should be underscored for the lurkers watching however—right now anything that develops is likely to be broad and weak and likely kept in check by the shear anomalies over the Gulf. Rain would be the primary concern here. I’m also intrigued by that second signal the week of the 17th but that’s way out there for now.
  22. Jersey Andrew
    Don, does NYC take a warm to hot turn around June 20 and beyond?
  23. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be another refreshing day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could see a shower or thundershower. Through early next week, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.584 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal).
  24. canderson
    Looking ahead - might get our first heat wave later next week. Seeing 90+ temps Thursday onward.
  25. Ed, snow and hurricane fan
    Just a look at the US and Canadian ensembles, NTX is getting the most rain. Canadian OP shows little rain near/S of I-10. Sort of OT, but South Florida looks rather wet on those ensembles, with the op runs of both suggesting near/more than 1 foot next week. I suspect IMBY, any rain will come on the afternoon sea and bay breezes, although an MCS surviving from the DFW area isn't a non-zero. possibility, as they say. Early Euro suggests a bit of the trough to the E of us may pinch off and move W, that scenario would seem favorable for enhanced afternoon storms along the TX coast.
  26. Chinook
    There have been almost no storm reports in the Front Range cities this year, except for the hail you guys already discussed. That is going to change today, as slight/enhanced risk is in Colorado. Severe thunderstorm watch issued. Also notable, an area of dr&&&&t showed up on the US Dr&&&&t Monitor in Fort Collins, so obviously it has been too dry there. Otherwise, the D0 value unusual dryness is not too big.
  27. GaWx
    Note that the far EPAC MDR has a decent sized area near 31C with no area anywhere near that big in the nearby WCAR/GOM. That is actually at record warmth there just like the WCar/BoC have record warmth. Do you think that this being the warmest area could keep energy from concentrating enough in the WCar/GOM to form a TC?
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