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i was in college at the time. i remember i was doing some school work in my room, and my roommate and his friend starting screaming "holy shit, holy shit" - I ran in and started watching. Just something that we had never seen and will probably never see again.

Sorry to anyone who saw the increase of pages since about 6pm and said WOAH what happened only to see nothing did on the models…just debate club.

malice in the palace!!!!! one of the most epic sports-related things of all time.

I was surprised this afternoon when I saw a Winter Weather Advisory appear in the alerts on my laptop, but the BTV NWS has them up for parts of the forecast area, including the western slopes of the Northern/Central Greens. On the Event Total Snow Accumulation map I see there’s some yellow 6-8” shading in the Northern Greens around here in the Bolton-Mansfield stretch, and that seems to align reasonably well with the mountain forecasts. Here at our site the numbers come in around 4-8” through Wednesday night, which is a little more aggressive than the general 4-6” shading along the spine, but we’ll have to see how long the snowfall persists – some models keep the upslope snow showers going through Thursday. The modeling also has another system coming through the area on Saturday, and with temperatures finally getting back to more normal values, we could be in line for some excellent days to hit the slopes.

Well...at least this is an on-topic back and forth But still though...lol

Too bad we had a Nina STJ this year. It was a nina-stj last winter too. Too bad, the AO was favorable

We never have a good chance of an all snow event in any pattern

I'll probably give it a 3% chance for all snow at this point. 15% chance for some snow at some point, at least on I95.

But that has nothing to do with my point. You’re focused on this synoptic setup and I’m focused on something that’s skewing the underlying pattern behind the synoptic setup

It sure was.

Things being nearby is overrated. Burnsville and Spruce Pine have pretty much anything I need. You just better not need something after 12 on Saturday lol. Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

Depends on whether there is a storm or not. It will be a lot warmer if it’s sunny than raining or snowing.

Let’s put it this way, if this ends up as widespread 4-6” over eastern regions, this winter will be making some headway continuing to stay ahead of the chains.

Something like 31/762 cases does not support a forecast position.. What's your call on High temps Feb 15-16?

We snowed with a -pna in the past. Not when it’s -4stdv you’re right. But why is it that when the pna goes negative it’s never -1 it’s -3 now? You’re beating around it.

I could see having gone 2-4"...but 4-6" is too much IMO.

Boring. Your map of snow events completely missed the +450 Aleutian anomaly. This coming storm is not a good platform to base this "it doesn't snow anymore in marginal" stance.

Just cleared up some space.

Maybe Steve will be right and I undersold it....all weenies aside. That is a valid reason I didn't think about...time will tell.

Chuck even recently 75% of the globe is red. We just got lucky the tiny speck of cold was over us. But what about the rest of the time? How do we snow when we’re not lucky enough to have the rare cold anomaly over us when the rest of the globe is a hopeless torch of +anomalies too warm to us to snow. You said it. We don’t her marginal anymore. Because the whole planet is tiny pockets of cold surrounded by warmth.

GFS got juicier again.

Ha fair point. I'm not sure if Boone really qualifies as having "things" but the map does look pretty spot on for my area of the county at least. Seven Devils would be a good option- I live in Foscoe just down from it and the upper end towards Hawks Nest does really, really well. The Tynecastle/Banner Elk area as a whole is pretty solid with a pretty big drop-off towards Valle Crucis to the north and Linville to the south. Obviously Beech is fantastic but the trek up and down can get annoying.

Don, once you adjust normals upward to take into account GW, is deep cold still about as common as it ever was? Example: adjust normals upward by 3F vs what normals were from around 1900. After doing so, is same degree of extreme cold about as common as it was then?

Will use this in some of my argumentative essays for my modern political theory class. Thank you

You were sooooo close