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Don, I think you know that's not NAM output. That looks like Pivotal 10:1 "clown" map. NAM produces liquid precipitation output and a vertical temperature profile. I believe it also generates a ptype. I recall it did pretty well on all three. Just because you get 0.2" liquid with mostly snowflakes doesn't mean they will accumulate. That's not the NAM's fault. That's user error.

doesn't matter what it is.. it usually works

Question…I’m not expecting much snow in the Berks County area, but it’s strange to see many of the maps which show the ice storm to the west and snow to the east. It makes it seem like it’s basically nothing here. Is the QPF actually less, or is it just that the sleet makes it seem less overall. To be honest an inch of sleet is a mess worse than a few inches of snow in my opinion. .

And it did. Virtually no snow even for the Poconos. Amazing that we’re less than 24 hours out and there’s this much disagreement. This is the definition of a nowcast event.

When it comes to how far the mid level warmth gets I don't ignore it because as others point out it's closer to accurate most of the time. And soundings do get dicey for the city from 0-3z especially, that 750mb warm nose will mean business. Even my backyard gets very close to changing to sleet. If we see good snow surging into eastern new England, NYC very likely changes to sleet. The block has to shove this south in time. But no I don't think it's gospel and I've seen situations where it overdid the mid level warmth. However it's probably closer to right than the colder models and I don't buy for a second that a storm like this will drop good snow from TTN-PHL with a 700mb low in upstate NY.

Me pants are off

Looks like a CT special with scraps out east.

This isnt a swfe event. Can’t use that logic.

I'd hit it

JB was honking about this earlier on a WB post. Hopefully it comes to fruition.

3k is sweet

NAM is far from ideal but at least it improved.

Ughhh sucks cod soundings still aren’t working for mobile

Yup, it trimmed back on the northern fringe but actually looks better for most. I’d would rip even up to Boston for a time.

Accuweather just jumped me from 3-6 to 6-10. I think everyone needs to calm down.

if its showing a warm layer its a red flag.. good luck though

Nice

The models saw this current nationwide warm spell coming, and it happened. The NE seaboard was definitely spared the worst of it, but we can't say the warmth didn't verify.

we koochie

but not with storm tracking

Plowable all of SNE

If as you say there's alot of subsidence to the north and south of the heaviest snow band. Why would you say you could see ALOT of sleet south of that band? That would not be subsidence??

Yea it definitely consolidated south a bit. It still slides some heavy snow through CT, RI and SE Mass though

This was the NAM just over 12 hours before the onset of Tuesday's precipitation for NYC: Outcome: Trace not 2.4".