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First average Freeze in Pennington gap used to be the 13th pre 2000. First frost was first week of October. Earliest Frost September 4 1954(I think that was the Year). Since then was September 15, '76. First Freeze : September 21, 1989.

Milder weather has now returned to the region. Tomorrow through Monday will see the mercury top out to the upper 60s and lower 70s across the region. The week will also be dry. The next chance for precipitation could be Sunday or Monday. The moisture could be enhanced by the remnants of Isaiah. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +5.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.2°C for the week centered around September 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.63°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.92°C. Both ENSO regions have set new all-time records. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -22.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.722 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.4° (0.5° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

I guess it's possible to believe that, if you've bought into all the brown lobby talking points perhaps you should consider looking under the hood more at the whole story

It might look like a Nor'easter by landfall.

Ugliest looking cat 2 ever. El-Nino is a true hurricane killer.

Good luck pal. Stay strong grinding through that therapy!

WB 21Z NBM storm totals.

Looked at the soundings and I think we should have a great Hurricane sunrise/set tomorrow! HRRR shows high clouds over the region by sunrise with soundings seemingly there to support it. Same story but a thicker layer is there for the evening/night. Would love to get some Met feedback to back up by hunch before I set an alarm for 6:00am! @WxUSAF@Eskimo Joe@Rhino16 @CAPE

I think it will show some three footers this year if it is not...

Exhibit A as to why it's being retired.

How are we looking for latter October? Trying to get a feel for whether or not we can get away with doing my 7 yr old's Bday outdoors....looks kind of seasonable-ish?

Got a new station up at Pit2. Sitting at the top of the rocks that drops off to the water. Sited about 25 feet above the water at low tide. With open water for two miles to the north, a mile to the east, and 2 miles to the southeast it should be really good for wind speeds during coastals. south to west will come in really meh. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMEBATH53?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

We have a chance to tie the record for latest 90 on record at MSP on Saturday. Crazy change from the last month of tranquil wx.

Smuggs will need to invest in lift infrastructure. Lifts are ancient there. Burke at least has some newer infrastructure as does Catamount.

Doubt it...my call from yesterday still looks good...110mph peak overnight before a Destin, FL LF early Sat at 90mph. Famous last words....lol

@George BM i expect lots of good fantasy NWS alerts from you. 24-48" of snow with rates of 5" per hour!

Another HU warm eddy RI? Opal in Oct 1995. 80 > 130 kt in 22 hr 130 > 100 kt in 12 hr (100 at landfall). 19951003, 1200, , HU, 22.8N, 91.6W, 80, 968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951003, 1800, , HU, 23.5N, 91.0W, 85, 965, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 0000, , HU, 24.5N, 90.1W, 100, 953, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 0600, , HU, 25.9N, 89.4W, 110, 935, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 1000, I, HU, 26.6N, 88.8W, 130, 916, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 1200, , HU, 27.3N, 88.5W, 130, 919, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 1800, , HU, 29.0N, 87.7W, 110, 938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999 19951004, 2200, L, HU, 30.3N, 87.1W, 100, 942, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, 50

Looks like your little kid dumped spaghetti sauce all over it and dropped a couple blueberries on top.

wouldn't be surprised to see 100" of snow on a 384 GFS run

FL wind reduction to sfc 700 - 90% 850 - 80% 925 - 75% 300 m - 80% 150 m mean layer - 85% However, Sfc-700 mb wind ratios vary from TC to TC and can range from ~70% to >100%. But departures from standard adjustment cannot be determined from just a few sondes b/c of convective vigor, eye wall structure/cycle, RMW, and/or low-level stability/cooler waters. In order for 700 winds to be 100% at the sfc, I think you need an exceptional eye wall ring and the hurricane in RI mode, like Andrew was at landfall. Also, CGs in the eye wall indicating better updraft/downdraft couplets.

It better be. One of my favorite parts of the season is marveling at the synoptics behind those storms (and using them for practice!). Maybe I’ll make some breakdowns of the really crazy ones.

77 today. Beautiful

100 degrees in NYC in February! Woo hoo!

Yes, I think most of the winds on the latest recon were just about 70kt, if a bit more, and then surface winds should be lower than flight level, by 10 kt. I think the continued pressure of about 978mb supports relatively the same as this morning's recon, which may have had a bit of 75-80kt flight level.