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The one caveat, which is hard to evaluate, is whether the high pressure (and associated upper level configuration) will be so anomalous, that the AI will, by its nature, not predict it. The AI models are trained on some amount of reanalysis, and so they can't/won't predict extreme or record-breaking events well. Will this setup be record-breaking? Hard to say. But that's something to keep in mind when evaluating the AI models vs the physics-based models.

Exactly. Extreme ZR totals is all about duration. Heavy precip with that kind of wedge tends to flip to sleet except in a narrow band with surface temps in the mid/upper 20s. That narrow band could set up anywhere and will indeed be a serious issue in all likelihood, but no need to worry too much until we iron out more details

around 6", didn't measure though

Surprised you're that low-BDR is closer to 20 inches STD

If it fails I'm not sure how much of a "rug pull" it'll be seeing as we could very well know by 0z tomorrow whether suppression (the biggest fail risk) is gonna be an issue or not.

Ill post it when i get there. Im hoping it inky accumulated in the grass.

Phase 8 Neg AO Neg NAO Positive PNA

needed the snow blower again this morning, I think I used it more so far this year than all of last

NAO dipping as well.

4.9" yesterday. 7.9 OTG all in for the weekend (there was some settling).

Big dip in the AO. Hoping not too much.

Mostly miss north of I-80 in this area. I'll take the usual <1".

You are correct. That will happen for a lot of people. He’s right too. Enough of a cold press will change the zr to ip or sn to help offset the destruction.

FWIW, the Euro AI was almost dead on at D5. It took the Euro longer to get there for yesterday's event. Tonight's runs will be 5 days out. If the Euro AI continues to show similar solutions I see very little reason why not to believe it.

That is the question of the hour, the latest GFS had the storm fairly far south; likely wont know track for another few runs of the models I would guess, though they all, as opposed to what some weather offices have said, have shown remarkable agreement that there will be at least some sort of system next weekend.

Regular op runs in their typical too much confluence bias range now. Will take 2-3 days until they make the moves north

It allowed the trees to keep all snow - photogenic scenes out there for all. Now that the light is hitting the trees I captured this.. Just a reminder how bad it’s been for us. I moved here in 2018.. 8 years and I’ve never had back to back months over 8” of snow until the last 2 months. 13.4” December and 9.6” January - 23.0” on the season

15 degrees and snow flurries.

Positive? I see no positive with this storm. If any of the ice predictions come true, its going to be a complete shit show. Not just a nuisance, but devastating. Loss of trees, power, heat and frozen pipes. Sure some will cash in with snow, but this ice is just garbage.

Just over 6” here. Just measured

I believe it’s coming . At least for CNE and SNE. As Will said yesterday, gulf systems typically come north since loaded with moisture

12/5: 1.3" 12/14: 1.8" 12/31: 0.2" 1/1: 0.1" 1/18: 0.4" Total: 3.8"

Why is the aifs the only model that's showing the storm so far north.

He better, or he'll have to give his wife and kids back their money.