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Euro should be good then, hopefully

UKIE is super close to something for the cape storm. 2-4" verbatim I think.

That is pretty funny though. Not even a step down, just gone

Goes both ways. The emotions of people clawing at any hope for a storm is equally as annoying as those who dismiss any chance of them. Very few posters on here are capable of being even keel.

Hopefully Canadian Suite is correct. Thermal flawed with Ukie that run.

The 0Z GFS is giving >1” of snow to this area on Jan 18th, which would be the second straight Jan with measurable snow. That’s never happened since official records started 150 years ago. The closest thing to that would be Jan of 1921’s 0.5” and Jan of 1922’s major icestorm. And then the glorious Jan of 1977 had two. Climo always says bet against measurable wintry precip here as no more than 25% of winters have had that. OTOH, there has been increased ensemble support. So, keeping all of that in mind, I’m taking this with a grain (2m temps are also progged to be marginal as of now with 34-35 being the coldest:

Obviously, it's going to come down. But the month is almost half over. Going to take a big change even to drop out of the Top 10. The next 10 days look like a fair balance of cold (east) and warm (west) so I wouldn't expect a huge negative departure - as the two anomalies should cancel each other out mostly. Even a zero departure or slightly negative would bring the current down substantially. But if we're sitting at say +7.0F-7.5F at the midpoint (15th), then even an average second half would make this a top five warmest January. I could see it being perhaps colder than normal, but not anywhere near the magnitude of the first half warmth.

Gfs had to wait for us to lose the cold before bringing it out.

Ukie also. Accumulating snow.

Ukie !

Thank, constantly being updated, worked on and improved. New Lower Northeast views being added to the historic storms section. With updated maps for each storm. Here's the original thread explaining everything -

I don't really believe in ceilings, especially beyond 24 or 48 hours or so. I remember Feb. 11, 2006 looked like a miss or fringe event 4 days out. 2 days out it looked like a plowable snowfall with a fantasy ceiling of maybe 8". Then the storm dropped 27" at NYC. If the synoptic scale features break right and the small-scale stuff aligns perfectly, sometimes there is no ceiling.

I certainly hope so. The short term pattern looks a lot like early December for my area with repeated glancing blows from dry cold fronts. A little bit of a signal for some kind of wintry system around the 25th.

The UKIE and GGEM are similar with their precip footprint this weekend but the UKIE is very warm and it rains even though it's overnight and 850s are like -3c.

And just like that @Ralph Wiggum

Happy that the CAMs nudged a little east over the day. They were hinting at a local miss by ~10 miles for the heavier stuff. I know that’s the way it plays with LE. But the psychology of this hobby makes it more preferable that any miss is wide. Anyway, it’s always fun to see some of the output as we get closer. Even though some are notoriously over-juiced. Big time heartbreaker for Michigan City area in this particular outcome.

The shortwave gets stuck in the SW

At least Ji doesn’t live in southern PA or else we’d have to hear about him “losing” 60 inches in one run

The GEFS improved again for Sunday (trof and individual members) even if QPF doesn't fully reflect the improvement.

what's the ceiling for this type of event?

The UK is similar to the GFS, but better. Accumulating snow to the coastal plain just NW of NYC. Nice h5 and surface almost as good as GFS-AI. Great 0z.

I never could have guessed this would happen, i thought it was 100% lock! The vanishing act of clown range op runs, who could have guessed

It's not a cutter, it's not suppressed, it literally went poof. 100% gone.

Yea, but UKIE likes the @CAPEstorm.