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Now what do I do with my life?

That little ball of vorticity does phase but not until it is off the coast to our NE. I think this is destined to be a light event, which I am fine with at this point, with the potential for low end moderate- maybe 4"?

18z GFS delivered the chance of a CTP special on Saturday night.

Yeah, been watching a live Cam near Petersburg where there's around 4 inches in areas of grass and bushes and it's hammering big Flakes.

Let’s go!!!! The Winter thread is here!

Totally. There was snow cover from SLK all the way to northern CT on my ride back today. One patch of snow hanging on here in my front yard lol. We’re not that far off from snow cover across all of New England.

As I’ve learned and I’m sure many others have…..They are going with persistence forecasting, which is really not advisable at all. When you do that, you are just assuming that a pattern is going to continue and models are all wrong and are just going to keep correcting to cold without any end or breaks. Persistence forecasting works until it doesn’t. Those guys are basically saying “yea, the models have been wrong so far and the pattern hasn’t broken yet, so we are just going to keep forecasting the status quo (cold) indefinitely, no matter what the forcing may do, no matter what in the long wave pattern changes and no matter what the models may show, we don’t care”. Not only unprofessional for mets, but a very bad idea and if it fails, you totally lose credibility and trust

Love the view!!!!

Right at 4" at 5 pm, temp down to 25.0/22.7. A pic before it turns dark.

Yeah that’s of interest to me. We want to get on the board. As many times as possible.

Eastern VA got some nice banding going on.

Yeah also some lower heights in SE Canada (they are never there these days when we need them)....in addition to the ridge being a little flatter at 132h.

Definitely not something worth investing a lot of time into. If it snows, great.

Ridge not quite as good this run on 18z GFS....so we get a scraper on the 12/14 event.

H5 looked worse to me. Flatter than 12z. 12z was more digging in and blew the storm up quicker, Plenty of runs to go. Hopefully can find something positive in the next few days.

S/w a little more south and flatter on this run. Grazes south coast.

What?!? We need cold and snow! What have you done to yourself man?

There were some changes at 500 that I liked actually. Looked like it almost phased in some more energy up in Canada. I think it was pretty close to a bigger event.

18z GFS is what it is.... and that's snow.

Yeah they should do alright. For us, three trace events by early December will hopefully bode well for a measurable event to come.

South or Southwest. SE Virginia is getting hammered now. Been watching Live Cam from Colonial Heights, near Petersburg. 4 inches and pouring big Flakes. Truly rare for there this early.

Meh worse than 12z but still there

And of course the wife and I had to be out of town today in SC so missed even the mood flakes. Oh well.

Bump this. Same time this Saturday? Would be nice we can track storm if still imminent.

Really windy now.