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I need to come to this forum more often as it is a different world up here and I understand the lack of enthusiasm down there. With that being said, I need to get access to the models so I don't have to ask here but until then, are the mesos still showing the R/S line little north of Sussex Co or back down a bit? I know 1-84 is a good spot for this one but northern half of Sussex was looking great until this morning. This will be my only IMBY type question.

FWIW PDO is almost positive now

On Nov 29th, the WCS daily PDO rose from ~-0.81 to -0.52, the fastest daily rise since Sept. 2nd:

Perfect!

Pixie fest has begun here at ORD, pouring.

He’s just NW of that

To all the clouds: you shall not pass.

Doesn't he even live right in the middle of that gray na na na-na na rub-it-in region ?

Based on what

I see -31 ubars on my sounding and I just keep thinking last time I saw this with marginal 850 925 we snowed until rates dried up. I don't discount some surprised folks under crazy lift.

Are we really sure that the tracking is the fun part?

Scooter "ignore those maps"

Yeah our worst stretch probably until the current drought we're in. Thankfully 2000-01 saved it from being 6 bad ones in a row On the positive side Dec 2002 began our amazing stretch

I don't know if it means much, but McLean busted three degrees lower than the forecast high (42 vs 45). My weenie mind is hoping we could all bust three degrees colder at the onset of precipitation.

We actually had a good amount of ice up here Sunday night. Interesting in that it coated everything including the road and my entire yard! I'm sure we will get slammed again tonight. Cold air gets trapped in my high valley because it’s surrounded on all sides by high peaks. Should have some upslope snow showers and a refreeze tomorrow afternoon up here also. Def winter!

Yep... was just coming in to dial up the d-drip haha

RRFS cooled a hair from 12z as well, for what little it's worth. Seems like the warming trend has at least stopped with the 18z mesos, other than the HRRR which is still rains to MHT. Would not want to forecast for the 495 region right now. Guessing it's a bit of a deck destroyer here.

Only got to 41 here

Usually in these setups its above 2.5k or 3k ft. Sometimes it will be nothing until your close to the top of Old Fort Mountain.

yep 1-2 degrees warmer. can we ever get a good trend?

Rip my electrical grid down

Most models are showing about a 3” snowfall for the Pittsburgh area, which looks about correct.

The 18z RRFS is a touch cooler along the rain/snow line in EPA and NNJ, which allows some of those areas to claw back a little bit of snow that was "lost" at 12z. The 18z HRRR might have been a hair cooler too. A small SE shift here at the end would be huge. But realistically this will be a nowcast situation for areas right along the boundary. The mesos being so warm at 12z was concerning.

Adding onto my post from last night but man this window is just a mess of energy out west. The first image taken at hour 60 on the latest Euro seemingly shows a simple setup as we have a nice bowling ball of energy out west and suppressed heights for it to follow east. Great! What could go wrong? Ironically enough, the storm we are tracking isn't even this initial vorticity out west! As out of this seemingly simple setup we have two things that completely ruin this initial ball of vorticity's chances. 1. The press of vortex over southern central Canada prevents any real chance for it to meaningly amplify. 2. The weird lump of low pressure off the Mexican coast which stretches it out the other way. Additionally looking up to the 200mb wind the whole western US is in the exit region of the jet from the western US which just further suppresses cyclogenesis So now what? Well by 24 hours later the energy out west has become completely shredded as it attempts to move east. Unfortunately, this isn't exactly conducive to a storm forming as we have the energy basically being squashed and pulled apart so piece one of energy fails completely at producing any storm. However, we now have shortwave 3 entering the picture diving into the high plains which interacts with the remaining mess of vorticity to spin up some actual precipitation. So by 24 hours later we arrive at this. As we can shortwave one really just died out completely, but its leftover energy out west combined with shortwave 3 to create an extremely positively tilted axis (thanks to our friend shortwave 2). However, we manage to snag some precipitation thanks to the now favorable jet position over the southeastern US. Though the reason why it's ice is rooted in the initial problem; that being we have two different shortwaves! By hour 87 we are already under return flow at the low levels (through 850mb) by the first shortwave and we still have another day+ till precipitation even becomes a possibility! Unfortunately, I don't think this setup really works out for us in its current form. What we can mainly hope for is a better oriented shortwave 3. Additionally, maybe a better positioned (further east?) shortwave 2 could transfer more energy into the system? Luckily, with such a complicated forecast synoptically it is quite possible this solution is far from the actual one which does give me a bit of hope. Either way I can't really say I'm too optimistic on this one. TDLR: I don't think its going to snow Friday-Saturday outside maybe an extremely light event, and even then we will probably have thermal problems. However, the forecast is so uncertain with 3 pieces of energy that it can't quite be completely dead as interactions out West could change.

Monumental failure by the Euro with this storm. DT is probably questioning his entire existence after this.