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Capt. Adam

First Week of March Nor'Easter

777 posts in this topic

There is a phase, it's just late on the GFS. But it's a full phse, unlike the 12z euro & GFS, which were partial phases.

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And add the 18z GFS Op... lol. #derp

Waiting to see the ensemble trends.

a lot better than the op.. gets .75-1 qpf from pa tpk south...then ac to dov to dca 1-1.25

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18z GFS ensemble comes in further north, more amplified compared to the 12z ensemble. 18z op run is an outlier (just in case you couldn't tell already :P).

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18z GFS ensemble comes in further north, more amplified compared to the 12z ensemble. 18z op run is an outlier (just in case you couldn't tell already :P).

I think your area is looking good down there. I have family who live in gaithersburg and they have decent elev like 300ft plus. This low is only going to come so far north, it could pan out almost like another feb 6th 2010 scenario..

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I think your area is looking good down there. I have family who live in gaithersburg and they have decent elev like 300ft plus. This low is only going to come so far north, it could pan out almost like another feb 6th 2010 scenario..


The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out.

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The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out.

At PHL itself, it would only take 1.6" to be the "biggest event" of the season :axe:

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The teleconnections are certainly in order for a good Mid-Atlantic snow event (though the actual values aren't really worth watching at this range). Now we've got a solid upper-level vort coming through at the right time to possibly capitalize on the pattern. I certainly like where I'm sitting with this storm, but given how piss-poor this season's been in the Philly proper, this could also score as one of the bigger (if not biggest) events there if the track works out.

not hard to do in both locales where dc has only had 1.5 all yr? phl biggest snowfall is 1.5 lol

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At PHL itself, it would only take 1.6" to be the "biggest event" of the season :axe:

not hard to do in both locales where dc has only had 1.5 all yr? phl biggest snowfall is 1.5 lol


Ha ha I thought that was the case at PHL. DCA has a pitiful 0.4" as its biggest event this season (twice), so with this storm it may very well beat that in under 1/2 hour. Been a miserable year of mixing/misses at both locations.

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my thoughts on tonight's model runs. 

 

1. It will take the GFS a few runs to correct from 18z. 

2. EC comes back north a bit from 12z along with UK. ( Often see where day run is south of overnight run on EC) 

3. GEM will still be overwound with to much QPF. 

 

We'll see at 1 am how these thoughts worked out. 

 

Overall

 

Coastal flooding/ high wind threat does exist as well even with a low track to our south in my view. This may be a case where rain fall on the edges of the precipitation shield with heavy snow in the thick of the precipitation shield, that being away from the coast of course.  

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my thoughts on tonight's model runs.

1. It will take the GFS a few runs to correct from 18z.
2. EC comes back north a bit from 12z along with UK. ( Often see where day run is south of overnight run on EC)
3. GEM will still be overwound with to much QPF.

We'll see at 1 am how these thoughts worked out.

Overall

Coastal flooding/ high wind threat does exist as well even with a low track to our south in my view. This may be a case where rain fall on the edges of the precipitation shield with heavy snow in the thick of the precipitation shield, that being away from the coast of course.

Well you are 1 for 1 so far. 00Z GFS looking similar to 18Z. On Edit, its worse, no northern stream at all.

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Just a word of caution: I sat through three days of snow with 2 m temps at 33 F this week.  ~1.50" of liquid translated into 2" of snow in 3 days.  Beware the March sun angle.

 

That is all.

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Oh yes and I'll be home for this event, so given that fact you might as well just write it off now...

Maybe that will counteract the fact that my birthday is this week and there's no way I can make it back there (which means Ma Nature would be more inclined to torture me by having a big storm back home around my birthday). :lol: :axe: :gun_bandana:

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Assuming tonight's modeling is right (either camp) going to be a bigger issue at the Shore in terms of coastal flooding/wind/beach erosion than from any precip.

 

Even if it nudged north a bit, the precip shield would need to move north a good 75 miles to get in the heavier precip zone on the Euro.

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I was surprised to see some of the language used over at Accuweather concerning the storm potential next week. A few quotes from an article written this morning by Alex Sosnowski:
 
“A wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week.” He also stated “Once the storm reaches the Atlantic coast Wednesday into Thursday (March 6-7), conditions at most levels in the nearby atmosphere and well away from the storm throughout North America will favor explosive development. At this point, the storm could become a real monster. While being too cold and stopping shy of becoming a tropical system, it could pack the punch like one with serious impacts to lives, property and travel plans.
According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "There may be similarities to a storm which affected much of the same area around March 6, 1962."
 
Seems like a pretty daring statement five days out. Any thoughts from our mets.

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I was surprised to see some of the language used over at Accuweather concerning the storm potential next week. A few quotes from an article written this morning by Alex Sosnowski:
 
“A wintry system that will make a cross-country tour beginning this weekend has the potential to develop into a powerful, damaging and very disruptive storm along the East Coast next week.” He also stated “Once the storm reaches the Atlantic coast Wednesday into Thursday (March 6-7), conditions at most levels in the nearby atmosphere and well away from the storm throughout North America will favor explosive development. At this point, the storm could become a real monster. While being too cold and stopping shy of becoming a tropical system, it could pack the punch like one with serious impacts to lives, property and travel plans.
According to Chief Meteorologist Elliot Abrams, "There may be similarities to a storm which affected much of the same area around March 6, 1962."
 
Seems like a pretty daring statement five days out. Any thoughts from our mets.

 

 

 

 

i respect elliot abrams and usually he does not call for snow unless he's pretty darn certain that it's going to happen......but i usually hear him on kyw1060....not sure if he has to "market" this storm over the website..........fyi.....here is the link to 1962

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962

 

 

http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/features/f6/years-later-are-we-prepared-for-the-inevitable-next-time/article_4bf4d660-6400-11e1-8284-001871e3ce6c.html

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i respect elliot abrams and usually he does not call for snow unless he's pretty darn certain that it's going to happen......but i usually hear him on kyw1060....not sure if he has to "market" this storm over the website..........fyi.....here is the link to 1962

 

 

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Wednesday_Storm_of_1962

Here are some totals from that storm:

 

ABE:  0.48" liquid, 3.3" snow

RDG:  0.74" liquid, 4.0" snow

TTN:  0.93" liquid, 3.7" snow

PHL:  0.74" liquid, 6.8" snow

ILG:  0.77" liquid, 4.3" snow

ACY:  2.22" liquid, 3.6" snow

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