calculus1

Just because:

It’s the big dog… Almost three feet in Hickory by early Sunday morning, on top of the glacier that is still around.

I think I may be most worried about the sustained cold in the wake of this storm. Once Hickory goes below freezing on Saturday, according to the 00Z GFS, we don’t get any warmer than the 20s any day the following week, and nighttime lows are in the single digits (or colder) almost every single night. (Sleet has staying and insulating power.) That will wreak havoc on the power grid and on water pipes. We don’t have infrastructure for temperatures like that on a prolonged basis. Then, the next winter storm arrives on Saturday…

That heavy sleet accumulation turns the NW piedmont into a freezer locker. After -8 F Tuesday morning, we get down to 4 F on Wednesday morning. We are colder than most mountain locations, and it’s not due to CAD.

Crazy cold Monday night: -8 F at 7 AM Tuesday morning in Hickory according to the 00Z GFS.

Stays below freezing for the entire event in Hickory, but swings from a “high” of 31 F at 4 AM on Monday morning to 17 F at 7 AM. That’s a crazy temperature swing over that period.

The QPF on the 00Z GFS looks even more than its most recent runs. 2.5 inches in Hickory?! Wow!

The hubris is so off-putting. It’s one thing to say what you believe and why you believe it, backed with solid reasoning. It’s a completely different thing to allow zero chance that you might be fallible, that you might draw a wrong conclusion on occasion, and that other people are crazy to think differently than you. He may be right this time, but pride goes before the fall…

^ I’ll take what’s behind door number two, as well. The Christmas storm like 15 years ago trended from nothing to amazing simply the night before.

Well, if by hammered, you mean a complete sleetbomb, sign me up!

...said everyone on AmericanWx, anytime their backyard is in the snow area.

It's amazing the power of CAD. You are almost always 10-15 degrees colder than me (if not more), and I'm going to be well below freezing all day on Sunday with a continued variety of wintry weather. This is the only time I am in a "better" position than you for wintry weather, but unfortunately, it doesn't come with the fluffy white stuff.

Can somebody please print the entire region sleet map? Thanks!

Looking at the ZR totals posted above on the 12Z GFS, the northern foothills from Burke, Caldwell, and Catawba northeastward seem to hold on to the coldest upper levels the longest. This results in epic IP accumulations and much less ZR. We are in the primo position for CAD, and it may save us on the ZR, in this instance, keeping us IP much longer.

Three(3) for me. And highs of 33 and 34 on Monday and Tuesday under full sun. Whatever falls will have staying power.